Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your scientific data briefing on the current spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Around the world, H5N1 remains a serious zoonotic threat, with outbreaks surging in both wild birds and mammals, and increasingly crossing into new geographic regions and species.

First, a global overview. The Americas persist as a major hotspot. The Pan American Health Organization reports that, since 2022, 19 nations in the region have recorded over 5,000 H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and livestock. Human cases in the Americas reached 76 since 2022, with two confirmed fatalities. Worldwide, historic data from the World Health Organization totals 990 human cases since 2003, with 475 deaths—a case fatality ratio near 48 percent. In 2025 alone, the CDC identified 26 new human infections between January and August.

Europe has seen pronounced spread, especially in poultry farms and wildlife reserves. This October, Germany culled half a million birds amid 103 new outbreaks. Nearby Hungary lost 10,000 cranes, and the UK confirmed a human infection in a farm worker and unusual mammalian cases, such as sheep displaying avian influenza symptoms.

Asia remains on high alert for both animal and human infections. Cambodia is frequently cited, with several fatal human cases tied to direct poultry contact in early 2025. India, China, and Bangladesh all reported new human cases from June to September. Cambodia alone confirmed 11 cases, with two deaths, during that period, according to the ECDC. Notably, new viral lineages are being mapped in Southeast Asia, suggesting ongoing reassortment—the mixing of genetic material from multiple H5 lineages. This raises alarms about evolution, adaptation, and potential mammalian spillover.

Let’s visualize trend lines. Data aggregated by Our World in Data and the CDC show infection spikes among wild birds in early 2024, followed by plateauing midyear. However, the current season has brought new surges among livestock—especially cattle—and a rise in interspecies transmission events. Europe’s recent 19 documented human H5N1 cases from June to September underscore the persistent threat. Visual graphs of case numbers reveal a sawtooth pattern, with outbreaks peaking during migration seasons and major farming cycles.

Cross-border transmission patterns center on migratory birds and international livestock trade. US outbreak models indicate most cattle infections concentrated in West Coast states like California, with Arizona and Wisconsin emerging as probable next epicenters. Interstate cattle movements remain a key epidemiological driver—border testing is federally required for exported cattle, but mathematical models published in mid-2025 suggest these interventions alone are insufficient to curb the spread. The true extent of infections may be underreported, with silent reservoirs likely in regions such as Florida and the Midwest.

Internationally, containment remai

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You’re listening to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker. Today is November 14, 2025, and this is your three-minute review of the latest data, trends, and travel guidance on the global spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza.

Let’s start with the numbers and hotspots. The Americas remain a region of critical focus. According to the Pan American Health Organization, 19 countries here have reported over 5,000 outbreaks since 2022, with 76 human infections and two deaths. The United States has seen the brunt of North American cases, with the majority tied to outbreaks in West Coast states like California, which currently leads in herd outbreaks—eight times more than any other U.S. state. Arizona and Wisconsin are projected as the next likely epicenters.

Europe continues to fight waves of H5N1, especially in Germany, which had to cull over 500,000 birds this fall alone after 103 reported outbreaks. Hungary incurred the loss of 10,000 migratory cranes. There have been 19 recent human cases in Europe between June and September, including three deaths, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reports.

In Asia, Cambodia remains a hotspot with 11 human cases just since June, with fresh fatalities linked to direct poultry contact. India, China, and Bangladesh each reported additional human cases this year. Earlier genetic analyses confirm that the dominant clade globally is now 2.3.4.4b, a virus lineage showing growing adaptation to mammals and responsible for most outbreaks on every continent except Australia.

Visualizing the trend lines: 2024 saw a steep rise in wildlife infections, especially during migratory seasons. After a plateau in mid-2025, the late summer and fall marked new surges in livestock—including spillover into cattle and even companion animals. Cumulative global case trends, as tracked by the World Health Organization, total nearly 1,000 human cases since 2003, with about half resulting in death. This year’s 70-plus new cases follow a scattered but persistent pattern, with hot spots shifting based on outbreaks in migratory and farm animals.

Examining cross-border transmission, models published in Nature and Frontier Microbiology pinpoint wild birds, livestock trade, and inadequate farm biosecurity as key drivers of regional and international spread. U.S. interventions like interstate cattle movement monitoring and mass culls have slowed outbreaks but failed to fully contain them. In Asia, surveillance in live poultry markets and dairy farms remains uneven. International containment successes include swift bird culling in Germany and vaccination strategies in China minimizing spillover events in urban centers. Failures are evident where rapid response lags or where cross-species infections go undetected, such as the emergence of infections in cattle and companion animals fed contaminated materials.

On emerging threats, multiple sources now confirm that clade 2.3.4.4b’s mutations are enhancing its stability and

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Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, your data-driven update on the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Today, we focus on worldwide case trends, geographic hotspots, comparative statistics, cross-border transmission, and what recent data suggests about containment, emerging variants, and traveler safety.

As of November 2025, H5N1 is actively circulating on every continent except Australia. Globally, the World Health Organization reports 990 confirmed human cases since 2003, resulting in 475 deaths—a fatality rate of 48 percent. Since 2022, the Americas alone have experienced over 5,000 outbreaks, with 76 human infections and two deaths, according to the Pan American Health Organization.

Hotspots are shifting but show clear clustering. In North America, the United States is a focal point, with around 70 officially reported human cases and significant livestock impact. California leads by case volume due to large dairy herds, as confirmed by CDC and mathematical modeling published in Nature’s November 2025 edition. In the last quarter of 2024, authorities culled 20 million chickens, resulting in nationwide egg shortages.

Recent modeling shows the highest disease burden in US West Coast states—California, Texas, and neighboring regions—reflecting large herd sizes and frequent livestock movement. Arizona and Wisconsin are flagged as high-risk for new outbreaks. Canada saw its first teenage patient in November 2024, while Mexico and India have each confirmed fatal pediatric cases in 2025. In Europe, Germany and Hungary combat outbreaks among cranes and poultry, with Germany reporting over 100 farm-level outbreaks and culling more than half a million birds.

South America faces a severe cascade among wildlife. Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay have lost nearly 600,000 wild birds and 50,000 mammals to H5N1 since 2022. Marine mammals are not spared: outbreaks have killed thousands of seals, sea lions, and devastatingly, up to 70 percent of Southern elephant seal pups at certain breeding sites.

Visualizing these trends, data curves for outbreaks show steady rises since mid-2022, peaking in poultry-dense regions and shifting toward mammals and humans in late 2024 and 2025. Time series data highlights seasonal surges—particularly in colder months—and a widening geographic spread into new territories. Compare these lines, and you see rapid escalation in North and South America with slower but persistent case counts in Europe and parts of Asia.

Cross-border transmission remains closely tied to wildlife migration and agricultural trade. Studies published in the Journal of Global Health highlight the role of migratory bird flyways connecting East Asia, Siberia, and Oceania. Evidence from live poultry market surveillance in China links virus introduction to these routes, while global livestock trade helps move the virus between commercial operations in North America and Europe.

International responses vary. Notable successes in

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Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

You’re listening to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker. Today’s snapshot covers critical H5N1 avian flu developments as of November 2025, focusing on global spread, epicenters, transmission patterns, and public health interventions.

First, let’s break down current hotspots. According to the Pan American Health Organization, since 2022, 19 countries in the Americas have reported over 5,000 H5N1 outbreaks in birds, with 76 confirmed human infections and two deaths as of October 2025. The United States remains prominent, particularly West Coast states like California, where large-scale poultry and cattle operations have driven repeated clusters. A Nature Communications study models a significant disease burden in these Western states with persistent spread among dairy cattle, and highlights Arizona and Wisconsin as states at increased risk for emerging outbreaks.

In South America, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay faced massive wildlife die-offs. More than 24,000 sea lions died in 2023–2024, and an outbreak among elephant seal pups in Argentina saw local mortality rates as high as 96 percent in some colonies. Across the continent, at least 600,000 wild birds and 50,000 mammals have died since 2022, reflecting the devastating spillover of H5N1 into non-avian species.

Turning to Europe, Germany has reported 2,000 dead cranes this year, and culled over 500,000 birds after 100-plus outbreaks — with significant clusters in battery farms. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control notes that most detections remain in Western and Southwestern Europe, but migratory birds continue to introduce the virus to new regions.

Asia reports human and animal cases along major migratory bird routes. China saw nearly 300 wild bird deaths in Qinghai this year, while Cambodia endured fatalities in children after contact with infected poultry. Genetic sequencing reveals both the dominant global 2.3.4.4b clade and emerging reassorted variants in Southeast Asia that combine gene elements from different H5N1 lineages.

Now, let’s visualize the global trend lines. On a hypothetical map, clusters would burn brightest in the Americas, the western US, and Southern Cone, with fading but persistent heat across Europe’s poultry corridors. Trend lines show a sharp increase in wild mammal deaths and a shift from sporadic poultry outbreaks to complex, multi-species patterns. Data from Our World In Data and the CDC chart the highest human case rates in the first and third quarters of 2025, corresponding with animal die-offs and migratory seasons.

Cross-border transmission is being shaped by bird migration and livestock trade. Geospatial research published in Geophysical Research Letters highlights that wild bird flyways crossing Eurasia and the Americas act as highways for new introductions, while fragmented farm quarantine policies have made containment patchy. A CDC analysis links multiple US states’ outbreaks to movement of infecte

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You’re listening to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your three-minute briefing on the worldwide spread of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, as of November 2025.

Let’s begin with the latest global overview. The Americas remain a significant hotspot. The Pan American Health Organization reports that since 2022, 19 countries in the region have documented 5,063 H5N1 outbreaks. Between 2022 and October 2025, there have been 76 reported human infections in the region, with two confirmed deaths. Globally, the World Health Organization’s records stretch back to 2003 and tally 990 reported human cases, with 475 fatalities. For 2025 alone, the CDC notes 26 new human infections between January and early August.

Zooming in on geographic patterns, South America has faced major wildlife die-offs, especially in marine mammals. Argentina and Uruguay, for example, have seen over 24,000 sea lion deaths, with outbreaks moving along the Pacific to Atlantic coasts. In North America, the U.S. experienced its first human avian flu death in Louisiana this year, amid a historic outbreak in poultry and, significantly, in dairy cattle for the first time. Mathematical models published in Nature Communications reveal that as of January 2025, most U.S. cattle outbreaks were concentrated in West Coast states, especially California, which reported eight times more herd outbreaks than any other state. Arizona and Wisconsin are flagged as the next likely epicenters.

Europe has also faced intense waves. Germany culled more than 500,000 birds this October after recording 103 outbreaks, including deadly events among cranes. Hungary saw the loss of 10,000 cranes, while in the UK, a human case was reported and unusual mammalian infections documented.

Across Asia, Cambodia has seen several fatal human cases early in 2025 connected to poultry exposure. The Greater Mekong region is closely watched for the emergence of reassortant viruses, combining genetic material from multiple H5 lineages—a potential warning sign for evolution and adaptation.

On the trendline, case data from the CDC and ECDC show persistent but scattered human infections, with most linked to direct contact with sick or dead poultry. As of September, 19 recent human H5N1 cases had been reported in Europe, including three deaths. Visualizing the trend, infection rates surged in wildlife in early 2024, plateaued mid-year, but with notable spikes among livestock and interspecies transmission events through the fall. The World Organization for Animal Health links these surges to migratory bird pathways, seasonal farming activities, and sporadic biosecurity lapses.

Cross-border transmission is driven by wildlife migration and trade. Data from Frontier Microbiology emphasize how regions with dense poultry, live bird markets, and minimal biosecurity are at highest risk. Recent transmission models show that U.S. efforts—like interstate cattle testing and poultry culling—have curbed but not halted viral spr

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Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker.

Today we bring data-driven insights into the evolving landscape of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza. Since 2020, H5N1 outbreaks have surged worldwide, touching every continent except Australia, with notable escalations in 2025. Worldwide surveillance by the World Health Organization indicates there have been 990 confirmed human cases since 2003, with 475 deaths—a 48% fatality rate. Between January and August 2025 alone, 26 infections were identified and the CDC reports over 70 cases across North America, including recent fatalities in Louisiana and Mexico. In the Americas, the Pan American Health Organization notes 5,063 reported outbreaks since 2022.

Geographically, current hotspots concentrate in South America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. In South America, outbreaks have devastated ecological reserves; Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, and Peru report at least 600,000 wild birds and 50,000 mammals lost since 2022, including record mortality rates among sea lions and Southern elephant seals. In Europe, Germany has seen mass culls—over 500,000 birds removed following 103 separate outbreaks in October, and Hungary lost 10,000 wild cranes. The United Kingdom flagged both human and livestock infections, with H5N1 detected in both poultry workers and farm sheep.

In Asia, China continues to grapple with clustered avian and sporadic human cases, with authorities confirming 275 incidents among wild birds in two Qinghai counties this year. Cambodia witnessed a tragic sequence in early 2025: three human deaths over three months, mostly in children, all linked to close contact with infected poultry. Vietnam and the Philippines also reported fatal human cases, demonstrating the virus’s persistence.

Visualization of the global trend lines shows steady highlights in monthly H5N1 reporting since 2022. Peaks typically align with migratory seasons. Our World in Data graphs reveal pronounced spikes in South America during late 2023, a secondary rise in Europe through early 2025, and a slow but persistent increase in North American cattle and poultry herds.

Comparative analysis shows cross-border transmission strongly correlates with migratory bird flyways: viruses frequently jump species and frontiers along these ecological highways. Notably, genetic studies in China link local virus strains to migratory birds along the East Asian-Australasian and Eastern China Flyways, supporting hypotheses of transcontinental movement. In the United States, recent modeling in Nature underscores the role of interstate livestock shipments; West Coast states, particularly California and Texas, have reported the highest dairy cattle outbreaks, and Arizona and Wisconsin appear at greatest imminent risk.

Successes include rapid containment operations in Argentina, where poultry exports were halted immediately after first industrial outbreaks, and targeted surveillance in US states helped curtail further livestock transmission. Fai

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# Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, the podcast tracking worldwide H5N1 bird flu developments. I'm your host, and today we're examining the current state of this evolving pandemic threat.

As of November 2025, the global H5N1 situation remains serious. Between January and August 2025 alone, 26 human infections were reported, with additional cases emerging through September. The World Health Organization estimates a case fatality rate around 50 percent in humans, making this one of the most severe respiratory viruses we track.

Let's examine the geographic hotspots. The United States has emerged as a significant outbreak zone. In January 2025, Louisiana reported the first confirmed bird flu death in an American, an individual over 65 with underlying health conditions who had exposure to infected backyard chickens and wild birds. By February, Ohio and Wyoming reported their first cases. The dairy sector became a critical concern, with 2024 seeing novel H5N1 outbreaks in US dairy cattle for the first time, concentrated heavily on West Coast states. California alone reported over eight times more outbreaks than any other state, largely due to its massive herd sizes. Mathematical modeling suggests Arizona and Wisconsin face the greatest risk for emerging outbreaks, with disease burden expected to continue through 2025.

Europe faces mounting pressure. Germany reported an estimated 2,000 crane deaths and culled over 500,000 birds in October as the Friedrich Loeffler Institute documented over 103 outbreaks across the country. The United Kingdom reported a human case in late January affecting a poultry farm worker, with an infected sheep later discovered on an outbreak-affected farm displaying mastitis with virus-containing milk.

Southeast Asia continues experiencing concerning human cases. Cambodia reported five human infections in late January and early February 2024, with additional deaths in 2025, including a 28-year-old man in January, a toddler in February, and a three-year-old boy in March, all linked to direct contact with infected poultry. Vietnam reported one death around the same timeframe. Mexico documented its first human case in April 2025, a three-year-old girl who died shortly after diagnosis. India reported a fatal human case that same month.

Regarding variants, two distinct H5N1 clades circulate globally. The 2.3.4.4b clade drives the current global outbreak, while the older 2.3.2.1c clade continues circulating in Southeast Asia with occasional human spillovers. Concerning reassortment in the Greater Mekong Subregion has produced viruses carrying 2.3.4.4b internal genes with the older 2.3.2.1c H5 gene, implicated in recent human cases.

Transmission patterns reveal critical vulnerabilities. Migratory bird movements serve as major conduits for transcontinental spread. Regions with intensive poultry farming, live animal markets, and poor biosecurity create ideal conditions for viral amplification. Interst

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Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker. This week, we're focusing on the current state of the H5N1 avian influenza virus—a pathogen affecting birds, mammals, and, increasingly, humans worldwide—with a close analysis of its geographic spread, key data points, and emerging risks.

Let's start with the numbers. According to the Pan American Health Organization, as of mid-October 2025, the Americas have seen over 5,000 documented outbreaks in birds, with 76 confirmed human infections and two deaths since 2022. Globally, the World Health Organization counts 990 human cases and 475 deaths in 25 countries since 2003, yielding a case fatality rate near 48 percent. Much of the recent surge comes from enhanced detection in mammals, not just birds—making the situation particularly complex.

Now, where are the world's hotspots today? In the Americas, significant outbreaks persist in the US, Mexico, Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina. The US has grappled with over 173 million infected poultry and documented outbreaks in over 1,000 dairy cow herds by late May. Human cases were confirmed in Louisiana, Ohio, Wyoming, and a fatal case in Canada. Mexico and Argentina both reported their first human deaths from H5N1 this year.

In Europe, Germany saw more than 2,000 cranes die, with over 100 farm outbreaks leading to the culling of half a million birds. The UK detected infections in poultry workers—and notably, even a sheep, marking further cross-species transmission. Southeast Asia remains a key region; Cambodia has reported multiple human fatalities in 2025 alone, and Vietnam, China, and the Philippines continue to see outbreaks among both animals and humans.

Describing the global trend, imagine a line graph surging steeply from late 2022, peaking through 2024 as new mammal infections and larger farm outbreaks push numbers higher. By 2025, the curve remains elevated, punctuated by regional spikes—like the wave in North American dairy cattle and marine mammals along South America’s coastline, which saw devastating die-offs in sea lions and elephant seals.

Comparing regions, the US and Latin America now account for a majority of recent infections in mammals and birds, while Southeast Asia continues to report the most human cases relative to population. Europe’s outbreaks—while fewer in number—emphasize high-impact events, such as mass deaths among wildlife and intensive farm culling.

Transmission analysis draws attention to cross-border risks. Migratory bird patterns link outbreaks from eastern Asia to Alaska and down through the Americas, as mapped by studies from geospatial health researchers. Interstate movements of livestock—especially dairy cattle in the US—have enabled rapid viral spread, with mathematical modeling highlighting Arizona and Wisconsin as states at greatest future risk.

Containment efforts have met mixed success. Positive examples include targeted poultry export bans in the Philippines and enhanced testing of cattle exports in the US, li

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Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-focused briefing on the rapidly evolving landscape of bird flu around the world as of October 2025.

Let’s start with the headline stats. According to the Pan American Health Organization, since 2022, more than 5,000 outbreaks of H5N1 have struck 19 countries and territories in the Americas alone, with 76 reported human infections and two deaths in this region. Globally, the World Health Organization reports a cumulative total of 990 confirmed human H5N1 cases and 475 deaths in 25 countries since 2003—a 48% case fatality rate. Over the past year, outbreaks have intensified, not just in poultry, but alarmingly in wild birds and mammals, including seals and even cattle.

Geographically, cases are highest in:

- The United States, where outbreaks in poultry remain ongoing, and dairy cattle became an unexpected host in 2024. CDC figures cite 173 million infected poultry, over 1,000 affected dairy herds, and at least 70 human cases as of late May 2025. CDC and Nature report most US transmission remains on the West Coast, but clusters have now emerged in Texas, Louisiana, Ohio, and Wyoming. Interstate movements of cattle have facilitated spread, especially into risk-prone states like Arizona and Wisconsin.

- In South America, Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina have suffered mass die-offs among wild birds and marine mammals, with at least 600,000 wild birds and 50,000 mammals killed since 2022. Argentina’s elephant seal populations were hit especially hard, with mortality rates up to 96%.

- Southeast Asia continues to report sporadic human infections—five in Cambodia and one fatal case in Vietnam in early 2025. Notably, Cambodian cases involve direct poultry exposure, while genetic sequencing reveals both the older 2.3.2.1c clade and reassortant viruses emerging in the Greater Mekong region.

- Europe: Germany reported over 2,000 crane deaths and at least 15 poultry farm outbreaks. The UK documented human infection and spillover to sheep, highlighting growing mammalian vulnerability.

Visualization of reported trend lines would show a steep climb in mid-2024, particularly in the Americas and Europe, followed by recurrent regional peaks driven by migratory bird seasons aligning with outbreaks along major flyways. The Andes-to-Patagonia wild mammal mortality spike and US West-to-Midwest cluster jumps are especially prominent.

Cross-border transmission remains driven by two factors: migratory wild birds and livestock trade. The Friedrich Loeffler Institute and China CDC note that major flyways—such as the East Asian-Australasian and Atlantic Americas routes—are key highways for virus spread. The US cattle trade itself, with nearly 30,000 annual interstate exports, highlights how livestock movements can amplify and disseminate the pathogen even under enhanced testing regimes. Genetic analyses show independent viral evolution in Asia and the Americas, with both regions now harboring highly pathogenic clade

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Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-focused update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N1, as of late October 2025.

Let’s start with a geographic breakdown. According to the Centre for Health Protection and the Pan American Health Organization, H5N1 outbreaks and documented human and animal infections are active on every continent except Antarctica. In the Americas, there have been over 5,000 outbreaks since 2022, with hot spots in the United States, Mexico, and Argentina. Notably, in the US, recent CDC and USDA reports show over 173 million infected poultry and more than 1,000 dairy cow herds affected, plus 70 human cases this year. In South America, outbreaks in Argentina and Brazil have shown distinct transmission routes influenced by migratory birds, with Uruguay serving as a critical hub for both avian and marine mammal-derived lineages.

Europe remains heavily impacted. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control notes that between June and September 2025, western and southwestern Europe saw predominant H5N1 activity. Recent government reports indicate confirmed outbreaks in commercial poultry across England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain, Latvia, and the Czech Republic. England alone has confirmed 8 cases in the current outbreak season.

In Asia, ongoing surveillance in China’s major flyway provinces—Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Hebei—has detected genetically diverse H5N1 strains related to those in South Korea and Japan, underscoring the virus’s rapid evolution and the role of wild bird migrations in spreading new variants.

Visualizing these trends, global case counts can be imagined as steep upward curves in both poultry and spillover infections: a persistent baseline in endemic regions like Egypt and Indonesia, while North and South America, and parts of Europe, spike with seasonal epizootics tied to migratory patterns and agricultural practices. The data reveal a troubling increase in cross-species transmission, such as the unprecedented jump to cattle in the US and marine mammals in South America, illustrated by adding new branches on the H5N1 transmission map.

Comparing statistics year-on-year, the 2024–2025 season saw a marked uptick in North American livestock involvement. Earlier years focused predominantly on wild birds and poultry, but now the trajectory includes mammals—a significant shift. This year, human case numbers remain relatively low compared to animal outbreaks, with 26 global infections between January and August, but the potential for zoonotic spillover remains high.

Cross-border transmission continues to challenge containment. Migratory birds facilitate long-distance jumps between continents, while international trade and livestock movement present additional risks—highlighted by mathematical modeling from Nature, which predicts continued outbreaks across American farm states and identifies Arizona and Wisconsin as likely next hotspo

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