Axis of Reason

To the Democratic Party's left wing, the shutdown was a triumph. But, the ascendency of the left within the Democratic Party could have consequences that accrue to President Trump’s political benefit.

The saga of the Covington Catholic School boys has all the markers of our time — a viral video, a phony racial confrontation, and cries of fake news. And this time at least, the shouts of fake news had some merit. It came just days after the Special Counsel, in unprecedented fashion, disputed a Buzzfeed News bombshell that Trump instructed his personal attorney, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress. What went wrong and what it says about our current political moment. Plus, why President Trump's offer to reopen the government was a non-starter with Democrats.

Nancy Pelosi’s suggestion that the State of the Union address be delayed until after the shutdown revives a long-simmering debate about whether the annual address, with all its pomp and pageantry, has become an overwrought symbol of the imperial modern presidency.

Plus, a pair of back-to-back bombshell news stories feed the secret agent Trump narrative. A NY Times report that the FBI took the unprecedented step of opening a counterintelligence investigation in the wake of his firing of James Comey raises questions about whether the FBI stepped over the line. Meanwhile, the Washington Post revealed that President Trump worked to conceal records of his one-on-one conversations with Vladimir Putin. Why this might not necessarily be as bad as it first appears.

Reading Material:

- Charles C.W. Cooke: The State of the Union Is Inappropriate https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/state-union-inappropriate-charles-c-w-cooke/

- Jack Goldsmith: On What Grounds Can the FBI Investigate the President as a Counterintelligence Threat? https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-grounds-can-fbi-investigate-president-counterintelligence-threat

As the government shutdown drags into its third week, we look at the vast gulf between the politics and the reality of President Trump's border wall.

For the second year in a row, Washington is ringing in the new year with a dysfunctional government shutdown. With both President Trump and Democrats firmly entrenched in irreconcilable positions and hemmed in by uncompromising political bases, how does this end? Plus, Trump’s cracked history of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan and the fallout from Mitt Romney’s rebuke of President Trump.

In 2011, President Barack Obama pulled U.S. troops out of Iraq leaving ISIS to fill the vacuum. Taylor talks with foreign policy expert Danielle Pletka about why President Trump's surprise decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria repeats those same mistakes. Plus, what the resignation of Secretary Jim Mattis means for U.S. national security policy.

LINKS

Barack Trump and the failure of leadership on Syria -- Danielle Pletka

https://www.aei.org/publication/barack-trump-and-the-failure-of-leadership-on-syria/

Mattis Resignation Letter

https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/read-defense-secretary-james-mattis-resignation-letter/

Follow Dani Pletka on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dpletka

Follow Taylor Griffin on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgriffinnc

In this week's episode, the last before Christmas, Taylor and Tyler "unwrap" Tuesday's wild sentencing hearing in the Michael Flynn case and why Judge Emmett Sullivan thought Michael Flynn deserved a lump of coal.

Lawfare's Quinta Jurecic and Benjamin Wittes: "The Former National Security Advisor’s Sentencing Hearing: Flynncompetent Judging"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/former-national-security-advisors-sentencing-hearing-flynncompetent-judging

Mueller's Sentencing Memo

https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/read-michael-flynns-sentencing-memo/

Flynn's Sentencing Memo

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5526132-Michael-Flynn-Defendant-s-Sentencing-Memo.html

Mueller's Reply Memo and Documents

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/read-mueller-flynn-sentencing-memo

Redacted FD-302 from Flynn FBI Interview

https://www.lawfareblog.com/document-special-counsel-releases-flynn-302

Amid allegations of election fraud, why a new election in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District is looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, in a testy televised tet-a-tet with Democratic leaders, President Trump owned the blame for a potential government shutdown over border wall funding. Why the move baffled political pros but thrilled his base. Finally, what the latest action in Special Counsel Robert Mueller‘s investigation tells us about where it‘s all heading.

The discussion continues on Trump and the economy with New York Times bestselling author Jim Rickards, who makes the case that Trump is on the right track with trade. But first, Taylor and Tyler break down the week’s news: the legacy of George HW Bush, the Democrats’ contentious leadership fight, and what to make of the latest turn of events in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe, Michael Flynn’s sentencing memo.

Links:

Jim Rickards Bio

https://speakerhub.com/speaker/james-rickards

Jim Rickards Latest Book, The Road to Ruin

https://www.amazon.com/Road-Ruin-Global-Elites-Financial/dp/1591848083/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

Jim Rickards on Twitter: @JamesGRickards

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards

Taylor Griffin on Twitter: @tgriffinnc

https://twitter.com/tgriffinnc

Tyler Cralle on Twitter @tylercralle

https://twitter.com/tylercralle

Taylor's Website is RoughlyExplained.com

https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/11/what-to-make-of-michael-cohens-newest-guilty-plea/

RoughlyExplained on Twitter: @roughlyexplain

https://twitter.com/roughlyexplain

What to Make of Michael Flynn's Sentencing Memo -- Roughly Explained

https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/what-to-make-of-michael-flynns-sentencing-memo/

The US economy is performing strongly in 2018 as tax cuts fuel strong growth in consumer spending. But, headwinds from Trump’s trade wars and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve threaten to sap the economic momentum.

This week, Trump threatened to punish GM for idling plants and laying off workers. But, can he do that? Should he? And are Trump’s trade policies to blame for GM’s decision? Plus, how Trump's experience in real estate might be distorting his view of how the economy works.