Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen challenges Silicon Valley's optimistic projections about AI-driven economic growth. We explore what could slow AI's economic impact, despite its remarkable capabilities – and where humans find the new normal amidst major shifts.

Timestamps: 

(00:00) Episode trailer 

(01:47)  The problem with Silicon Valley's AI-driven growth projections 

(06:02) The institutional bottleneck to AI progress 

(10:49) Markets aren’t pricing in a radical AI future 

(12:53) Are we heading for a great job displacement? 

(17:02) Is GDP still worth talking about? 

(19:11) Who does AI benefit most? 

(21:11) Will AI cause a human identity crisis? 

(27:11) The education system’s failure to adapt 

(35:34) How the Gulf could become a geopolitical powerhouse 

(39:10)  Could AI change religion? 

(46:46)  Closing thoughts 

Tyler's links: 

Marginal Revolution Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/ 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen 

Azeem's links: 

Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Our new show

This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack.

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 LTD

Thomas Dohmke, CEO of GitHub, joins Azeem to explore how AI is fundamentally transforming software development. In this episode you'll hear: 

• (01:50) What’s left for developers in the age of AI? 
• (04:54) How GitHub Copilot unlocks flow state 
• (07:09) Three big shifts in how engineers work today 
• (10:47) Is software development art or assembly line? 
• (15:26) Why developers are climbing the abstraction ladder 
• (19:35) Have we already lost control of the code? 
• (23:15) What it’s actually like to work with AI coding agents 
• (39:35) Welcome to the age of ultra-personalized software
• (45:37) Building the next-generation web 

Thomas's links:

• GitHub: https://github.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ashtom/
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/ashtom

Azeem's links:

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Aaron Levie, CEO & co-founder of Box, joins Azeem Azhar to explore how an “AI-first” mindset is reshaping every layer of Box – from product road-maps to pricing – and what that teaches the rest of us about building faster, smarter organisations.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Episode trailer

(02:04) The "lump of labor fallacy" in sci-fi books

(07:37) When individual productivity gains don’t translate to teams

(12:32) Box’s Friday AI demos

(21:23) How agents might redefine 100 years of management science

(26:37) A lesson on AI innovation from the early days of Ford

(29:52) Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, and Sergey Brin are coding again?

(35:16) Pricing in a post-AI agent world

(38:43) Cheaper tokens, heavier usage: AI’s margin math

(43:02) Solving AI’s verifiability problem

(48:24) How Aaron uses AI in his personal life

Aaron's links:

• Box: https://www.box.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/boxaaron/
• X/Twitter: https://x.com/levie

Azeem’s links:

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar
• X/Twitter: https://x.com/azeem

This conversation was recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, live every Friday at 9 am PT / 12 pm ET. Catch it via Exponential View on Substack.

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Lennart Heim, a researcher and information scientist at RAND Corporation, joins Azeem Azhar to unpack a provocative claim: China is catching up with US AI capabilities, but it doesn't matter. 

Timestamps: 

(00:00) Episode trailer 

(01:19) Lennart’s core thesis 

(03:26)   Why compute matters so much 

(07:31)  The investment split between model R&D and model execution 

(11:18)  How test-time compute impacts costs 

(16:14) The geopolitics of compute 

(21:32) Why does the U.S have more compute capacity than China? 

(25:01)  The trade-off between economic needs and national-security needs 

(31:54)  How technology change might shift the battlegrounds 

(35:33)  Dealing with compute and power concentration 

(48:19)  Concluding quick-fire question 

Lennart's links: 

• Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/ohlennart
• Personal blog: https://heim.xyz/

Azeem's links:

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. 

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy, joins Azeem to discuss the Iberian blackout and how we can create a more stable, flexible, and resilient energy grid for the future. This conversation digs into grid technology, market structures, and the real opportunities of the clean energy transition. 

• (00:00) Episode trailer 
• (01:38)  What caused the Iberian blackout? 
• (04:55)  Managing load in traditional vs renewable grids 
• (11:57) The role of market incentives 
• (18:13)  Greg's social experiments within the UK grid 
• (23:49)  How the "virtual power plant" is becoming a reality 
• (26:59)  The path to completing the renewable energy transition 
• (33:15)  Are lobbyists slowing down the transition? 
• (36:26)  What does the next 5-10 years look like? 
• (40:42)  Why the name "Octopus?" 

Greg's links:

• Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/g__j
• LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/gregsjackson
• Octopus Energy: https://octopus.energy/

Azeem's links:

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Physicist and entrepreneur Steve Hsu, whose startup Superfocus tackles hallucination problems in large language models, joins Azeem to discuss AI agents, hallucination challenges and what happens when technology meets labor markets. 

They discuss: 

(01:31) The deeper shift that Superfocus represents 

(07:00)  Will models overcome hallucination? 

(10:15)  AI Agents can replace 80-90% of call center calls

(12:27)  What it’s like showing customer support AI to customer support people 

(22:36)  China's mayors are like mini CEOs 

(30:05)  What will matter most in the supposed "AI race"? 

(35:58) DeepSeek was not part of the Chinese Government 

(38:23)  How open source will change the future of deployment 

(40:59)  What the public doesn't understand about AI tail risk 

(48:01) How AI plush toys can teach French to 2-year-olds 

This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. 

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Sir Niall Ferguson, renowned historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins Azeem Azhar to discuss the evolving relationship between the U.S. and China, Trump's foreign policy doctrine, and what the new global economic and security order might look like. 

(00:00)  What most analysts are missing about Trump 

(05:43)  The win-win outcome in Europe–U.S relations 

(11:17)  How the U.S. is reestablishing deterrence 

(15:50)  Can the U.S. economy weather the impact of tariffs? 

(23:33) Niall's read on China 

(29:29)  How is China performing in tech? 

(33:35)  What might happen with Taiwan 

(42:43) Predictions for the coming world order 

Sir Niall Ferguson's links:

• Substack: Time Machine
• Books: War of the World, Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/nfergus

Azeem's links:

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar 
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

 Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar" on 28 March. 

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

In this episode, Azeem Azhar speaks with Ryan Petersen, CEO and founder of logistics platform Flexport, about the current state of global trade amidst escalating tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption. Ryan offers unique insights from the frontlines of the US-China trade war and explores how businesses are adapting to a rapidly changing landscape. 

(00:00) Episode trailer 

(01:12) Ryan's overall thoughts and predictions 

(03:40) Why shipping is crucial to your everyday life 

(08:07) Why tariffs may actually increase global shipping 

(11:34) Who’s pausing their China shipments? 

(14:29) The mindset of Flexport customers right now 

(16:02) Is this the end of globalization? 

(21:48) The fragility and resiliency of global trade 

(25:27) The most underrated story in the world 

(30:25) How tech has changed global trade 

(36:31) Who will win in the new trade settings? 

(41:20) What could a U.S-China trade deal look like? 

Ryan's links:

Flexport https://www.flexport.com/ 

Twitter/X https://x.com/typesfast 

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/rpetersen/

Azeem's links: 

Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Our new show

This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected].

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Azeem Azhar welcomes Packy McCormick, founder and investor at Not Boring, to discuss the current tech landscape. 

In this episode you'll hear: 

(01:50) What Packy got wrong (and right) about Web3 

(10:17) The shift to "know thyself and know thyself-nots" 

(14:28) Europe just woke up 

(18:46) Bits and atoms are cool again 

(21:10) London airport shutdown reveals a deeper challenge 

(23:32) A new kind of home energy infrastructure 

(29:28) A theory on Eric Schmidt's new CEO role 

(34:08) What's the role of nuclear in a solar + battery world? 

(40:33) The coming tech boom 

Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]. 

Packy's links: 

• Substack: https://www.notboring.co/ 
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/packyM 

Azeem's links: 

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar 
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Anthropic's co-founder and chief scientist Jared Kaplan discusses AI's rapid evolution, the shorter-than-expected timeline to human-level AI, and how Claude's "thinking time" feature represents a new frontier in AI reasoning capabilities.

In this episode you'll hear:

• Why Jared believes human-level AI is now likely to arrive in 2-3 years instead of by 2030
• How AI models are developing the ability to handle increasingly complex tasks that would take humans hours or days
• The importance of constitutional AI and interpretability research as essential guardrails for increasingly powerful systems

Our new show 

This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET on Exponential View. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected].

Timestamps:

(00:00) Episode trailer

(01:27) Jared's updated prediction for reaching human-level intelligence

(08:12) What will limit scaling laws?

(11:13) How long will we wait between model generations?

(16:27) Why test-time scaling is a big deal

(21:59) There’s no reason why DeepSeek can’t be competitive algorithmically

(25:31) Has Anthropic changed their approach to safety vs speed?

(30:08) Managing the paradoxes of AI progress

(32:21) Can interpretability and monitoring really keep AI safe?

(39:43) Are model incentives misaligned with public interests?

(42:36) How should we prepare for electricity-level impact?

(51:15) What Jared is most excited about in the next 12 months

Jared's links:

• Anthropic: https://www.anthropic.com/

Azeem's links: 

• Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar
• Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Produced by supermix.io