This episode is for the Champions League games on Tuesday Night, don't forget to visit backthewinner.com to see all tips and feel free to contact me if you have any suggestions!
Chelsea vs Valencia
- the last 4 out of 5 Chelsea games have been over 3.5 goals all those games had both teams scoring.
- Valencia recently just sacked there manager Marcelino and have only won out of 4 games in la liga so far
- Valencia just got beaten 5-2 vs Barcelona whilst Chelsea won 5-2 away at Wolves
Conclusion: While the wheels are coming off at Valencia, Chelsea have shown some promise. Add onto that Chelsea are at home I can only see a Chelsea win here and probably over 2.5 goals. So we are betting 3 units on Chelsea to win at 1.80 and 2 units on over 2.5 goals at 1.72
Napoli vs Liverpool
- Really want to be involved in this game but I can’t find an angle , I don’t think Liverpool are value at 2.30, Napoli beat them 1-0 last season and drew 1-1 with PSG so there no joke at home. Seems to be goals with Napoli but I think Liverpool defence is good and the odds are too short. So unfortunately its a no bet this game.
Dortmund vs Barcelona
When I saw this game and the odds I was going to side with Barcelona but on closer inspection, Barcelonas away games are surprising not great.they’ve only won 2 out of there last 5 away games in the champions league drawing to teams such as Lyon and inter Milan. So for me there is no bet here.
Ajax vs Lille
Ajax look good to win here with there great home form and Lilles bad away form but I think there too short for me at 1.45 so its a no bet
Benfica vs Leipzig
- Leipzig are undefeated so far this season including a draw to Bayern Munich
- Benfica are hit with a lot of Injuries unto seven players could miss this match
- Benfica lost at home to Porto a few week ago which shows that can bet beating at home agist quality opponents
Conclusion: With Leipzig sitting at the top of the league in good form vs a depleted Benfica team I think there’s value wit the away team. I’m going to play safe and take Leipzig 0 on the asian handicap at 1.960 with 3 units, if you don’t know 0 on the asian handicap is draw no bet. So if it’s a draw we get are stake back if Leipzig win we win.
Salzburg vs Genk
- Genks away record in the champions league is poor, there last 3 games read like this 7-0, 5-0 and 2-0.
- Salzburg has only lost one game in there last 5 at home in the champions league
- So far this season Salzburg have played 7 games and won all 7 so are in great form.
Conclusion: Really like Salzburg in this game, there slightly to short for me to take at 1.44. I’m looking around the 1.5/1.6 mark so I’m going to wait for the line to move and maybe even take them in-play if they don’t score with in the 15 minutes. So I will bet 3 units on them at 1.5 and above.
So to conclude the bets:
- 3 units on Chelsea to win and 2 units on over 2.5 goals.
- 3 units on Leipzig at 0 on the asian handicap or draw no bet what ever you get better odds on.
- 3 units on Salzburg to win
