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The platinum market is expected to move to being in balance in 2026 - but this is contingent on a lessening of the trade tensions that have accentuated this year's substantial platinum market deficit of close to 700 000 oz.

Also to be noted is that a balanced market does not rebuild above ground stocks, which makes it very difficult to envisage a fundamental loosening of the tight market conditions that are likely to persist in 2026.

Meanwhile, on the way for 2025 is the third big consecutive annual deficit of 692 000 oz, which is a downward adjustment of 158 000 oz from the previous forecast thanks mainly to higher mining and recycling supply but with total 2025 supply still projected to be a five-year-low 7 129 000 oz and mining supply falling to a 5%-lower 5 510 000 oz, also its lowest level in five years.

On the demand side, total 2025 uptake of 7 821 000 oz is forecast, which is a 422 000 oz reduction on 2024, largely owing to the absence of expansions in the glass business.

On the 2026 supply side, a 4%-higher 7 404 000 oz is forecast owing to more recycling and 2%-higher mining production to 5 622 000 oz, while total demand is expected to contract by 6% (-436 000 oz) year-on-year to 7 385 000 oz. This fall is driven chiefly by an aggregated 540 000 oz swing in non-bar and coin investment demand, as warehouse stocks are drawn down from elevated levels on easing tariff-related uncertainty, with some profit taking by exchange traded fund (ETF) investors.

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has put forward a following year outlook in a current year Platinum Quarterly against the backdrop of trade tension-linked investment flows having accentuated the 2025 platinum market deficit in a big way.

"We've put forward our 2026 expectation of a broadly balanced market, going from a deficit this year of almost 700 000 oz to a 20 000 oz surplus, which is basically a balanced market for next year," WPIC research director Edward Sterck told Mining Weekly in a Zoom interview following WPIC's release of its Platinum Quarterly on platinum supply and demand movements for the third quarter of 2025, an updated forecast for 2025 and a first outlook for 2026.

While the expectation of a balanced market may be a bit of a surprise to many, it is heavily contingent upon an easing of trade tensions as well as ETF profit taking.

"In aggregate, those two segments contribute about 300 000 oz in change to the overall balance. Remove them, and we have a 300 000 oz deficit for next year, so the forecast of a balanced market is very contingent upon some fundamental changes in the way the world is operating right now.

"Trade tensions have persisted throughout the majority of this year. They've allowed the US to build up a significant strategic stockpile of critical minerals without the government having to fund anything. It's all been funded privately. This isn't just platinum, it's other metals as well.

"Then, in terms of ETF holdings, at one point we were up more than $700/oz in price terms, yet we still didn't see anyone selling their holdings on a net basis, so it's contingent upon things changing in that regard next year.

"Why did the price move this year? Well, one possible reason, and there are a few others we could discuss as well, is that above ground stocks fell to unsustainably low levels, approximately from May of this year.

"A balanced market doesn't solve that. Above ground stocks would need to be replenished for us to see the tightness come out of the market, and that would require a substantial surplus in 2026," Sterck explained.

Ongoing trade tensions would turn 2026 into another year of supply falling short of demand.

Platinum tightness remains, which is reflected by extremely high lease rates and deep backwar...