Balfe Report

College Basketball
6:00 PM EST
Rotation #818
Cal State Northridge -2.5 over Long Beach State
The Cal State Northridge Matadors are very good when they can get over 70 points per game.  Long Beach is the perfect opponent because they operate at a quick pace.  This should be a great offensive game and I am almost tempted to take the over here, but we will stick with the Matadors in this one.  Both teams have bad defenses and are bad at defending the three point line.  Long Beach turns the ball over a lot and they don’t share the ball well.  CS Northridge does share the ball well and they protect the ball as well.  This is a bigger and stronger team that should cash in over a team that doesn’t know how to win.  I can’t see the 5 win 49ers advancing as it will be Cal State Northridge that takes advantage of their extra possessions tonight.  Take Cal State Northridge.

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #465
Browns +4.5 over Titans
Browns backers have been frustrated this year because on 3 occasions they have blown the cover in the craziest of ways, but you can’t hold grudges when it comes to sports gambling.  Both teams have excellent running games.  The Titans Derrick Henry is the man.  The Browns Nick Chubb is the man.  The Titans are a little banged up on the offensive line and the Browns get Myles Garrett back today.  Garrett makes all the difference in the world and is the key to pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers.  I don’t want to say Tennessee is overrated, but their defense is average and can be taken advantage of.  Cleveland should have a balanced attack running the ball with the Chubb/Hunt combo and then Baker Mayfield should be able to find his downfield targets.  I like the value with the underdog in this spot.  Take Cleveland.

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #258
Browns -7 over Jaguars
The Browns are itching to play in a game that the weather doesn’t limit their offense.  The weather will be nice and Cleveland could not have drawn a more perfect opponent on defense.  The Jags are brutal and to make matters worse they will be starting Mike Glennon today at QB.  Glennon has not thrown a ball in a game since 2017.  Cleveland should put up a ton of points today on offense and on defense create turnovers.   The Browns Defensive Line is missing a few key pass rushers today, but Glennon and his timing will be so off that this unit should force him into silly mistakes.  Cleveland should have a balanced rushing attack of their own, but you know they are going to try to pass it more today just to get Baker Mayfield some positive stats.  Take Cleveland.

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #458
Texans +2 over Patriots
Texans/Patriots Over 48.5
The Texans have the worst defense in the NFL.  There is no doubt Bill Belichick will find ways to put points on the board.  This New England team is flawed.  I know the general public thinks they are back after beating Baltimore last Sunday Night, but the conditions in that game were brutal.  This game today is indoors and I believe the Texans Offense is going to have a field day.  New England just doesn’t have a healthy front seven on defense.  The Texans have so many talented skill players that should be able to get open.  New England has a great secondary, but it’s only as good as the protection they get up front.  The entire Patriots defensive line is out or on the injury report today and the linebackers are banged up as well.  Deshaun Watson is going to be a nightmare to slow down today with his duel threat ability.  Take the Texans and the Over.

College Football
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #360
NC State -5.5 over Liberty
Hugh Freeze is the man.  What a coach!  The Flames are 8-0 this year, but their schedule has been easy.  This team did beat Syracuse which has their own injury issues, but the win at VTech proves this is a really good team.  I just don't think they can continue to keep it up against better athletes.  This is a really light offensive line that I believe the Wolfpack front seven can handle.  NC State has so many great offensive weapons and their offensive line should hold up against this defense and any pressure it brings.  This is a game in which NC State is the bigger and more physical team and they should have no problem putting up 40 plus points.  Liberty will be undefeated no more.  Take NC State.

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #261
Bucs -5.5 over Panthers
Bucs/Panthers Over 51
Tampa got beat up bad last week and are looking for a punching bag.  The Panthers have a first year staff that has been excellent, but I just don’t see them stopping all of the Bucs weapons.  This defense does not have the same talent as the Saints.  This is a big divisional game and I believe Tampa will get back on track with all of their receivers finally being healthy again.  Carolina will be without Christian McCaffrey which always hurts their chances, as he means more to his team than just about anybody in the NFL.  This a good Panthers offense that will put up points.  The wind is bad all over the NFL this afternoon, but this game will be not too bad.  I think this will turn into a pretty entertaining shootout, but it will be the Bucs that pull away late.  Take Tampa and the Over.

NCAA Football
3:30 PM EST
Rotation #222
Western Kentucky -8 over Southern Miss
Southern Miss is a mess.  This team is on their 3rd coach of the year and now on their third quarterback.  Jack Abraham opted out of the season, Tate Whaley won’t play with a concussion and they now will depend on Trey Lowe in his first start.  This is a team that just won’t click on offense.  Western Kentucky has struggled themselves on offense, but today will get a weak defense that can’t stop the run.  Tyrell Pigrome will run all over this team and his style of play won’t throw interceptions so Southern Miss just won’t have multiple chances to put up easy points.  This spread seems high for a WKU offense that struggles, but Southern Miss is so dysfunctional right now that I can’t see any scenario that has them in this game in the 4th quarter.  Take WKU.

NFL Football
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #457-458
Lions +3.5 over Vikings
Lions/Vikings Over 51
The Lions will be without their top receiver Kenny Golladay today, but they will be facing a Vikings Secondary that is missing their top corners and the backups are banged up and very young.  The Packers couldn’t expose them last week because of the wind in Green Bay.  In perfect conditions Matt Stafford will light them up as this team can run a balanced offense.  This young Vikings Secondary will be exposed.  Last week in Green Bay was a gift from the weather gods.  Detroit is not a great defense so the Vikings will get their points as well.  Dalvin Cook was incredible last week so that confidence should carry over to this afternoon.  Both teams will be able to run and throw the ball making them balanced and efficient.  Take the Lions and the Over.

NCAA Football
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #403
Tennessee -1 over Arkansas
The Vols had a week off to try to get focused.  This was a team that won a lot of games to end last year and then the wheels fell off after a 2-0 start this year.  The good news is they are playing a team that didn’t win a conference game in 2018 or 2019.  The two wins the Razorbacks have this year are against two bad football teams.  This Arkansas team is still in a transition year under their first year staff.  Feleipe Franks is a big upgrade for them and they do have talent, but the Vols are a better team on both sides of the ball and have the talent and experience edge across the board.  Jarrett Guarantano just needs to hand the ball off and not try to do too much.  This Arkansas Defense isn’t the likes of Georgia, Kentucky or Alabama.  Tennessee will look frustrating and will do silly things, but has the talent to beat a less talented football team and will be focused and hungry after a three game skid. Take the Vols

NFL Football
 1:00 PM EST
Rotation # 253
Vikings +6 over Packers
 Vikings/Packers Over 49.5
In the first meeting this year the Packers picked this Vikings team apart.  Minnesota couldn’t get their offense going until it was too late, but today the weather favors the Vikings.  Minnesota is fresh off the bye week and are healthy.  The winds are going to be high in this game which plays to Minnesota’s strengths.  Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison should have big days running the ball.  Aaron Jones is out for Green Bay so the running game does take a hit.  Aaron Rodgers isn’t as mobile as he once was so I do think Minnesota can win this game.  The problem for the Vikings is Aaron Rodgers is always the best player on the field and Minnesota is missing their top three cornerbacks in this game with the other one being just a rookie.  The wind might be blowing around, but it will be hard for these guys to stop the Green Bay receivers and hard to come up and make cold weather tackles as well.  This should be a great game.  I think the Vikings have a great shot at winning if they stick to the game plan.  Take the Vikings and the Over.  

NFL Football
 1:00 PM EST
Rotation # 256
Bills - 4 over Patriots
The Bills are built for this type of weather.  Josh Allen has a cannon of an arm, he can run and he has the big hands to hold onto the ball when the winter conditions start rolling in.  Cam Newton is a diva.  This Patriots offense has been brutal all year and without a couple key receivers I just don’t see them all of a sudden moving the ball today.  This is simply not the Patriots year.  The New England Defense is seriously undermanned and the Bills should win both sides of the ball.  Take Buffalo.

NFL Football
 1:00 PM EST
Rotation # 257
Titans -6.5 over Bengals
Cincinnati is going up against a great defense today and will be without their top running back Joe Mixon.   That’s only half of the bad news.  The Bengals Offensive Line will be without their center, their left tackle and right tackle.  Good luck.  Joe Burrow is just a rookie and we have yet to see him play in conditions with high winds and colder weather.  The Titans are built for this type of game and we should see Derrick Henry have a get right game this afternoon and the Titans should move the ball at will against this defense.  Take Tennessee.