#BalkansDebrief

Germany's political landscape is shifting after the parliamentary elections on February 23—conservatives won, the far-right AfD surged, and foreign policy questions loom large over Berlin. What will the next leadership in Germany mean for the country's approach to EU enlargement and, in particular, the Western Balkans?

In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Resident Senior Fellow at the Europe Center, sits down with Gerald Knaus, Chairman of the European Stability Initiative, a leading voice on EU engagement, to discuss why Germany must step up as Europe's stabilizer. Knaus warns that the next four years are critical: Berlin must push for EU enlargement in the Balkans—no more delays, no vague goals. Without bold leadership, the region risks stagnation.

Knaus also highlights Merz's recent foreign policy statements as the boldest from any European leader now and argues that Merz's government could be the most consequential in Germany since Konrad Adenauer in 1949.

Will Germany step up as Europe's stabilizer? As Europe faces a growing security crisis, will Germany push for a stronger NATO presence in the Balkans? Could a potential divide between the United States and the EU weaken efforts to stabilize the region? What one piece of advice would Gerald Knaus give to Germany's new leadership regarding the Balkans?

The European Union's Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to accelerate economic growth and convergence in the region—but can it truly deliver? With reform, investment, and EU integration at stake, how can the region turn this initiative into real progress? Ilva Tare, Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, dives into the risks, opportunities, and challenges with three co-authors of the Atlantic Council's EU Growth Plan report: Valbona Zeneli, economist and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council; Richard Grieveson, Deputy Director at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies; and Isabelle Ioannides, Europe's Future Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences and the ERSTE Foundation. Can the Growth Plan restore trust in the EU's commitment to enlargement, or will political deadlock, limited funding, and institutional struggles stand in the way? What role can private sector investment and regional cooperation play in amplifying its impact? And how can the EU ensure stronger rule of law and accountability as part of the process? Join us for an in-depth discussion on #BalkansDebrief as we break down what's at stake for the region's economic future.

Serbia is at a crossroads. What started as grief over the Novi Sad tragedy has become a full-scale protest movement, forcing Prime Minister's Vučević's resignation and even earning students a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But with no clear leader, how is pro-government media responding? Is this the start of real change, or will the movement be silenced? Ilva Tare, a Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, is joined in this episode of #BalkansDebrief by Igor Božić, News Director at TV N1, and Marko Prelević, editor of Nedeljnik, one of Serbia's most influential weekly news magazines. Who is the driving force behind these massive protests? How is the government-controlled press handling the massive protests? What comes next after the Prime Minister's resignation? Will this moment define Serbia's future? Tune in for an in-depth look at the movement shaking the Balkans.

As protests against lithium mining intensify across Serbia, fears of environmental damage and distrust in government accountability are uniting citizens like never before. Could this rare unity spark broader democratic change? In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Resident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare explores the roots of this resistance with Ivanka Popovic, founder of the ProGlas movement and professor at the Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy at the University of Belgrade. Together, they discuss the environmental, social, and political implications of the controversial Jadar Valley lithium project. With backing from EU leaders and major automobile companies, how is the role of foreign investment in shaping Serbia's mining policies perceived, and what impact does this have on local communities opposing the project? How have recent protests, accented by the Novi Sad tragedy, influenced public trust in the government's ability to manage environmental concerns associated with pollution and contamination?

Discover the factors driving this movement, the role of grassroots activism, and the potential consequences for Serbia's democratic future. #BalkansDebrief #Serbia #LithiumProtests #Democracy #WesternBalkans

Ilva Tare, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, sits down with Majlinda Bregu, the outgoing Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council, in this compelling #BalkansDebrief episode to discuss the current challenges of the region's integration and cooperation as well as the gap between signing regional agreements and their actual implementation. Bregu highlights pressing issues such as the recognition of professional qualifications and the freedom of movement with ID cards, emphasizing that the effectiveness of these agreements relies heavily on the commitment of regional leaders to take action beyond ceremonial signings.

Bregu explains the Common Regional Market (CRM) 2.0 goals and its critical role in aligning with EU integration, by enhancing economic cooperation and convergence and paving the way for smoother entry into the EU's single market.

She also addresses the Western Balkans' pressing security and economic challenges, revealing how rising inflation, increasing costs, and corruption are creating distress for citizens and businesses. Moreover, Bregu warns that non-economic concerns, particularly the region's troubling depopulation and ongoing disputes, are emerging as significant security threats.

A last-minute breakthrough enabled the Western Balkans to sign key regional cooperation agreements at the Berlin Process Summit on October 14 of 2024. This was thanks to the skilled diplomacy of Manuel Sarrazin, Germany's Special Representative for the Western Balkans, and the political will of regional leaders.

In a crucial compromise, Kosovo agreed to lift its ban on Serbian imports at the Merdare crossing. As part of the deal, Germany and its allies pledged to provide advanced scanners to enhance security at Kosovo-Serbia borders, a necessary step that has yet to be implemented.

Ilva Tare, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, sat down with Manuel Sarrazin to discuss the complexities of these negotiations. Sarrazin shares how he played a pivotal role in persuading Kosovo's Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, to lift the ban—a move vital to unblocking CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement) and advancing the Berlin Process.

Sarrazin also speaks about the security concerns that arose, particularly in light of the recent Banjska incident, and how Germany's offer to provide scanners is part of a broader effort to bolster both trade and border security.

While the situation at the border remains fragile, with ongoing security concerns, Sarrazin emphasizes that the political capital Germany has invested, alongside the EU and the US, is creating momentum for deeper regional cooperation and economic progress.

As the Berlin Process celebrates its 10th anniversary in 2024, over 115 organizations gathered at the Civil Society and Think Tank Forum on October 9-11 this year to raise alarms about shrinking civic spaces, threats to democracy, and rising intimidation across the Western Balkans.

In this insightful episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, speaks with Simonida Kacarska, Director of the European Policy Institute, and Klodjan Seferaj, Program Manager at the Open Society Foundation Western Balkans, about the forum's key recommendations and the uncertain future of the Berlin Process writ large—including where the next summit will take place and the adjustments needed to maintain its relevance.

What are the biggest challenges for civil society in the Western Balkans today? How are governments responding to concerns about the rule of law, democracy, and civic spaces? And what can be done to hold them more accountable?

Watch now for expert analysis on the future of the Berlin Process. #BalkansDebrief #BerlinProcess #WesternBalkans #CivilSociety #Democracy

Cyber-attacks are on the rise in the Western Balkans, with 1.2 million personal records exposed to data breaches and a 200% surge in ransomware attacks over the past two years. Businesses across the region have paid millions of euros to recover compromised data, and 75% of companies report facing phishing attacks. Cyber-actors are exploiting internal ethnic tensions to target reconciliation efforts, while disinformation campaigns undermine democracy, destabilize institutions, and disrupt daily life.

In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, sits down with Ramadan Ilazi from the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies and Filip Stojanovski, Director of Partnerships at Metamorphosis in North Macedonia. Together, they delve into the cybersecurity vulnerabilities threatening the region's political and economic stability, examining the implications for critical infrastructure, businesses, and citizens.

The discussion tackles key questions, including how cyberattacks are being used to advance political agendas, the impact of emerging technologies like AI and the Internet of Things, and the gaps in regional cooperation. They also explore how the Western Balkans can strengthen its integration into the EU's cybersecurity framework, including the role of ENISA in supporting regional efforts.

As cyber threats continue to evolve, this conversation highlights the urgent need for a resilient digital future in the Western Balkans, from workforce development to bolstering regional collaboration. Tune in for expert insights on navigating one of the region's most critical challenges.

Following the significant power shift in North Macedonia's May 8 elections, the VRMO-DPMNE party, led by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski faces a complex landscape.

Six renowned experts have crafted a strategy brief for the Atlantic Council, outlining crucial recommendations for the new government, including democratic reforms, the fight against corruption, economic revitalization, EU integration, and addressing rising ethnic tensions.

Resident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare engages in a conversation with three of the policy brief's authors to discuss the country's reform agenda.

Key questions include: What economic and political implications arise from the loan exceeding half a billion loan from Hungary? What strategies does the government have to address the fiscal deficit?

Why is there little optimism for immediate Constitutional changes and how could this impact the center-right government?

How will the citizens' frustration with the stalled EU integration process be addressed to progress with EU accession?

What are the potential consequences for the country's democracy amidst the Ethno-nationalist narrative following recent ethnic tensions?

The European Union's recent memorandum of understanding with Serbia on raw materials has sparked debate across the Balkans. Signed during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit, the MoU revives a controversial lithium mining project, drawing opposition from many Serbians. In this episode, Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare is joined by Ivan Vejvoda, Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences and Head of Europe's Futures Project in Vienna, to dissect this complex issue. Does Mr. Vejvoda share the criticism that the EU and Germany are prioritizing lithium access in Serbia over essential democratic principles like environmental protection, rule of law, and independent media? With concerns about weak independent institutions and a critical public sphere in Serbia, can the country uphold high environmental and social standards? How can the EU ensure that such agreements maintain rigorous environmental and social principles? Could this agreement reduce Serbia's reliance on China, and what might be the broader geopolitical implications? Join #BalkansDebrief for an in-depth discussion on the potential impacts of this deal and the geoeconomic and geopolitical interests of the EU in the Western Balkans.