Barclays Brief

Markets are facing two competing inflation stories at the same time: a near‑term energy shock pushing inflation risks higher, and the possibility that AI acts as a medium to longer-run disinflationary force.​

In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey, Global Head of the Product Management, sits down with Jon Hill, Head of US Inflation Strategy, to break down how energy price spikes feed into headline versus core inflation, what breakevens and real yields are signalling, and how central banks may respond to energy shocks they can’t control. ​

They also discuss whether core inflation dynamics are drifting back toward a pre‑COVID structure, and how AI could shape the path ahead through productivity, wages and margins.​

​​Listeners can hear more on this topic:​​​

• Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? ​
• European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide ​

​​Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​​

• The view from overseas ​
• A Claudy inflation outlook ​

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Jet fuel shortages linked to the continuing Iran war are dominating headlines, raising questions about whether this poses a genuine risk to global travel or whether markets are getting ahead of the reality.

As the airline industry moves toward the peak summer travel period, Patrick Coffey sits down with our Head of European Transport Equity Research, Andrew Lobbenberg, to dissect what’s happening in aviation fuel markets. They explore the known knowns and the known unknowns at this moment, including why Europe is more exposed than other regions, and who will likely bear the costs if constraints persist.

The episode also examines the realistic scenarios for airlines and passengers, from short‑term disruption to longer-term implications.

Listen now to cut through the headlines and understand what this period of uncertainty means for the aviation sector, its investors and its consumers.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

•European Transportation: Airline potential fuel shortages

•European Airlines: Messy uncertain days - March quarter preview

•European Integrated Energy: Assessing the diesel and kerosene shortage risk

•European Lodging - War and Peace: Scenario Analysis on Conflict, Fuel Supply and Oil Prices

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Credit markets often process stress before other parts of the market are able to. During periods of volatility, the signals they send can help investors distinguish between shocks that are likely to prove temporary and those that risk becoming more systemic.​

In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Head of Equities, sits down with Drew Mogavero, Global Head of Credit Products and CEO of Barclays Capital Inc., to explore why credit markets have remained relatively stable during recent periods of stress. They discuss how investment‑grade and higher quality high yield have continued to find support and what this demand reveals about market conditions. ​

The conversation also looks at how credit signals can inform views across equities and rates, where stress tends to emerge first, and what today’s market dynamics reveal about the broader economic backdrop.​

​Listeners can hear more on this topic:​​​

• Processing uncertainty in real time​​
• Credit markets: What's ahead for 2026​
• Private credit: Hidden interconnectivity​

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​​

• Not that quiet beneath the surface​​
• Woes of waiting ​​

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Food delivery is changing fast, with last-mile autonomous hardware being developed and deployed at pace. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Guillaume Galland to explore how robots and drones are beginning to reshape food delivery economics around the world.

Drawing on ground‑level observations from cities including Los Angeles, Helsinki, Dublin and Dubai, Guillaume explains why autonomous delivery adoption differs by geography, and why some markets are already seeing meaningful penetration.

The conversation breaks down the two core technologies now in play – aerial drones and ground‑based robots – and they discuss where each are best suited to excel.

The discussion also covers the economics driving momentum in the sector – how autonomous delivery stacks up against human couriers from costs, speed and reliability, and if they offer an enhancement for consumers and restaurants alike. They also look past the exciting developments and look at the hurdles that remain, ranging from regulation and operational complexity.

Crucially, this is not about replacing human riders altogether, as Guillaume explains. Physical AI is a structural lever that will sit alongside traditional delivery models, changing how the last mile works rather than removing people from it.

Listen in to understand where autonomous food delivery is gaining traction, what’s holding it back, and why it matters for platforms, restaurants and investors watching the future of last‑mile logistics.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

• Robot at the Door: Last-Mile Shift

Listeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI:

• Robotaxis: The future of mobility
• Rise of the humanoid robots
• AI Revolution: China’s Five-Year Plan

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Prediction markets are suddenly top of mind for a range of people. From elections and sporting events to pop culture and breaking news, probabilities are flashing across screens in real time. What started as a niche concept is increasingly being treated as a signal for how uncertainty gets processed and priced.​

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler sits down with US Gaming Research Analyst, Brandt Montour, to explore why prediction markets have surged into the spotlight. They dig into how these platforms work, why the “wisdom of crowds” has captured attention across media and finance, and what’s driving the growth in activity and valuations.​

The conversation goes beyond the hype, tackling the growing regulatory pushback, the tension between state and federal oversight, and the key differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. They also examine who’s winning, who’s losing, and what the rapid shift in capital across the gaming landscape may be signaling for investors thinking about how to position as this market continues to evolve.​

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​

• Mounting Opposition, but No Quick Regulatory Endgame​
• Predicting a Sports Launch - 72¢​
• Prediction markets for CPI?​

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Quantum computing has long been viewed as a future technology. Now, it’s poised to overtake classical computing systems in specific useful tasks in the next 12-24 months.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, Laia Marin joins Patrick Coffey to discuss why now may be the time for corporates and investors to engage with quantum computing. They break down the fundamentals, including the different modalities, and its potential to solve complex business problems, analysing unstructured data and developing complex optimisation solutions.

Laia also explores the current limitations of quantum systems, the competing qubit modalities racing to scale, and how quantum computing is additive to classical computing infrastructure, potentially allowing companies to integrate quantum capabilities alongside existing systems, rather than replacing them.

This episode offers an accessible overview of where quantum stands today – and how to start preparing for its impact.

Listeners can hear more on this topic:​

•Episode 20: Software: In the AI storm

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

•Quantum Computing: The race is on

•Quantum Computing: Friend, not foe

•Quantum Computing: Correcting the biggest investor myths around quantum

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In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus.

Advanced economies may be on the cusp of a new, historic investment cycle – one with the potential to rival the great build‑outs of the past, from 19th‑century railroads to the Apollo missions and the information‑technology boom of the 1990s.

While much of the capex narrative has focused on AI and the race by hyperscalers to build faster, more efficient models, this is only one part of the picture. Energy systems, electrification, defence spending and economic resilience are all reinforcing the scale of capital deployment now underway.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Chief Economist at Barclays, to examine how 150 years of investment data show that long periods of under‑investment are often followed by powerful capex cycles and why after two decades of weakness, the latest numbers point to the early stages of one with historic potential.

Listeners can hear more on this topic:​

•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time

•Episode 17: Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?

•Episode 7: US dollar & the AI capex cycle

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

•Supersize me: The coming investment cycle

•Cracks, but not a crater (Q2 Global Outlook)

•Defence Quarterly: a 10-year cycle still to come?

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Markets have been anything but calm lately. Inflation shocks, surging energy prices and the AI narrative have collided to deliver one of the most dramatic periods in rates markets in years, forcing investors to rethink interest‑rate paths in real time.

In Europe and the UK, that reassessment has been especially stark. Expectations for rate cuts have rapidly flipped to pricing further hikes, with the Bank of England at the centre of the storm. Gilt yields have surged to levels last seen during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while German yields have climbed to post‑sovereign‑crisis highs. What began as an energy shock has quickly morphed into a bond‑market shock, lifting borrowing costs for households and businesses alike and delivering a renewed wave of financial whiplash for mortgage holders.

Against this already fragile backdrop, markets were whipsawed yet again by a single social‑media post, triggering sharp reversals across rates, equities and commodities in the space of hours.

So how do you trade through volatility of this magnitude? Which signals still matter when headlines dominate price action? And how do inflation risks, AI‑driven narratives and crowded positioning interact in today’s market structure?

To make sense of it all, Patrick Coffey is joined by Hamza Hoummady, Head of EMEA Rates Trading, for a wide‑ranging discussion on what is driving today’s unprecedented moves, how this episode compares with past crises, and what investors should be watching next.

Listeners can hear more on this topic:​

•Episode 23: A bullish view on US equities

•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time

•Episode 16: Forces shaping markets in 2026

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

•Recovery delayed redux

•On hold, holding on

•Ides of March

•Dueling mandates

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Markets may look relatively steady compared with past oil shocks, but the real story sits in the undercurrents. Despite only a modest pullback in major indices, the Iran‑linked shock has sparked some of the sharpest sector rotations in years as fast‑moving capital unwinds crowded trades and reprices global risk.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined once again by Alex Altmann, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies, to break down what’s really moving markets: crowded international trades unwinding, energy‑importing regions under pressure, and liquidity mismatches accelerating the rotation.

They also dig into the commodity complex, hit hard as investors absorbed significant losses, and explore why structural forces such as US-China decoupling, strategic reserve building, and critical minerals demand still support a compelling multi‑month (and potentially multi‑year) thematic opportunity.

Ultimately, the conversation asks: what are market internals signalling that headline indices fail to show?

From energy‑price anxiety and shifting Fed expectations to private credit concerns, join Patrick and Alex as they assess the pressures facing investors and why strong US corporate margins, healthier private‑sector balance sheets, and powerful AI‑driven capex trends continue to underpin a resilient, fundamentally bullish backdrop for US risk assets.

Listeners can hear more on this topic:​

• Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?

• Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

• Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028

• Energy Sigma - Snowball effect

• Equity Market Review - Waiting for the Trump put

• The Long & Short of It - Conflict hits, conviction slips

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Volatility has returned, and markets are recalibrating risk premia as new sources of uncertainty emerge across oil, inflation expectations, private credit and the AI investment cycle.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler speaks with Ajay Rajadhyaksha to break down how markets are processing this uncertainty, and the transmission mechanisms that matter most for the medium-term path.

They explore how investors are interpreting elevated oil prices and what sustained higher prices could mean for inflation expectations, as well as why private credit concerns remain slow moving rather than systemic. They also examine the structural tailwinds from AI, where hyperscaler CapEx and breakthrough adoption rates may continue to anchor long run productivity and growth.

As the conversation tracks the market reaction to the escalating conflict in Iran and other recent headline shifts, Ronnie and Ajay focus on the observable indicators and signals shaping the medium-term outlook.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

Middle East Escalation Hub

When it rains...

Barclays Equity Factor Insights: March 2026

Takeaways From Anthropic's Enterprise Agent Event

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