"You need to mentally inhabit the world of each hypothesis. Then, you need to ask whether new evidence makes the hypothesis more or less likely".

In this podcast, Dr Tasha Fairfield (Associate Professor at the LSE) explains how to do Bayesian process-tracing. We consider a cookie heist and state capacity in Peru!

If you're keen to learn more, read:

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/89261/

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/69203/

http://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/people/tasha-fairfield