In this longer episode Ed covers huge moves in international bond & FX markets, recent comments from Jerome Powell, problems under the surface with the American consumer (28% of Apple credit cards are sub-prime), and what recent earnings statements from large companies like FedEx may be hinting at from a macro prospective. Nationalization of the German power company Uniper, brewers requesting federal assistance, and energy price caps are all covered.

https://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/15/business/microstrategy-chairman-accused-of-fraud-by-sec.html

ttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-buy-fortums-uniper-stake-inject-8-billion-euros-2022-09-20/

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-16/fedex-s-problems-are-about-fedex-not-the-world

https://www.reuters.com/business/crude-us-emergency-reserve-falls-lowest-since-nov-1984-2022-09-06/#:~:text=HOUSTON%2C%20Sept%206%20(Reuters),from%20the%20Department%20of%20Energy.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-expects-parts-shortage-hit-third-quarter-sales-2022-09-19/

This week Ed spoke about continued themes of food protectionism (India rice export ban), recent currency volatility with the pound and the yen, and the global implications of a stronger US dollar.  Thoughts on why some German companies are now insolvent (but not illiquid). Why energy price caps don't work;  demand will have to be destroyed (rations/energy curtailing) or additional energy supply will have to be restored/brought online. Thoughts on the shortage of US teachers.

Ed goes over the Jackson Hole meeting and corresponding notes. Thoughts on the European energy markets, a look at the UK, and updates on oil are provided. Repricing markets based on energy cliffs & the battle of demand destruction vs. lack of supply. The show ends discussing ideas and themes of music production, alternate time signatures, and genre jumping.

The recent drought in Europe is covered and Ed provides a short update on housing markets. China's economic slowdown, property market slump, and the potential of a PetroYuan are all discussed. 

This episode covers the August 10th CPI print, the good, the bad, the ugly. Recent comments from Larry Summers and other economists, developments in the housing market, and a Mastercard spending credit report comparing July 2021 / 2022 and July of 2022 to 2019. 

Ed dissects Friday's nonfarm payroll data and what that means for the Fed going forward and why their work may not be yet done. The show goes on to cover recent upticks in call option volume (greed/FOMO) and short covering in global markets. 

A deep dive on the China-Taiwan situation is provided and what that could mean for inflation expectations.  

Europe's energy situation is revisited and Lagarde's economic credentials are put into the spotlight. 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wages-continue-to-accelerate-for-workers-small-business-hiring-slows-in-may-301557569.html#:~:text=Hourly%20earnings%20growth%20increased%20for,%241.50%20during%20the%20past%20year.

https://www.ft.com/content/ae2aae1c-8569-4854-aeaf-1e160633e6e9

Ed goes over the recent Fed meeting and a particular set of comments from Jerome Powell the market seemed to like. The show goes on to cover Walmart & McDonalds quarterly reports and additional developments in China/ US relations.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/26/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china-relations/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-26/unilever-raises-prices-to-battle-impact-of-rising-inflation

In this week's episode Ed covers European Central Bank policy decisions and implications of the new TPI framework, (i.e. "Don't fight the fed"). He goes on to cover geopolitical risks, insider trading, and the WireCard scandal. 

How fixed income investors have historically missed geopolitical risk premia and important events. Towards the end of the episode, Ed talks about Elon Musk's recent drama (shifting public opinion) and what the consequences could be for Tesla shareholders.   

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kuwait-dow-idUSTRE4BR1M920081229

With Europe's heatwave in focus, countries may struggle to meet agricultural outputs. 

Political drama in Europe unfolds with large resignations that could have impacts on currencies. Ed covers European credit markets, oil inventories, bank earnings, and discusses recent trades/ideas.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/opec-s-first-2023-outlook-shows-no-relief-for-oil-market-squeeze-1.1790788

https://www.businessinsider.com/nancy-pelosi-stock-trades-paul-pelosi-nvidia-visa-apple-2022-7 

After returning from vacation, Ed covers the German economy and its industrial outlook. The show goes on to analyze oil markets and policy decisions around the world. Are we seeing demand destruction? Ed doesn't seem to think we're there just yet. 

Is the US in a recession? Maybe officially, but what pieces are we missing here?

Emerging markets and credit default risk is discussed in addition to capital flows for ETFs over the quarter. 

https://atalayar.com/en/content/china-and-africa-geopolitical-pairing-works

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62008413

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/electricity/german-power-baseload-calendar-month.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-23/economic-chaos-of-a-taiwan-war-would-go-well-past-semiconductors