Before & After the Cut

Market Insights

• Markets Reprice the Path Forward Amid Fed Uncertainty
• Curve Steepens, Highlighting Value in Intermediate Maturities

Headline Risks and Fundamentals

Credit Insights

• Federal Policy and Munis: What Investors Should Know
• Credit Strength Persists Despite Policy and Market Shifts

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Market Insights: Volatility & Recovery

• Volatility gave way to stability
• Taxable municipal bonds outperformed
• Tax-exempt munis offer compelling value 

Credit Insights

• The One Big Beautiful Medicaid Bill
• Mid-Year State Credit Round-Up

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Market Insights: Tariff Tension

• Policy Uncertainty Drives Volatility: Tariffs and tax reform plans are fueling market disruption and mixed economic signals.
• Conflicting Fed Signals: The Fed held rates steady but lowered growth and raised inflation forecasts, reflecting a complex outlook.
• Sentiment Weakens: Rising recession risks and falling consumer confidence point to growing investor unease.

Credit Insights: Hey Kids, Don’t Try This At Home!

• Munis ≠ Corporates: Unlike corporates, munis are more diverse and slower to change, giving managers time to manage risk.
• Diverse & Stable: Thousands of issuers and gradual credit shifts let skilled managers avoid trouble early.
• Defaults Are Manageable: Major muni defaults are often long-foreseen, showing risk is avoidable with proper oversight.

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Market Insights: Opportunity in Uncertainty: Macroeconomic uncertainty can create opportunities for disciplined investors to generate stable income through quality and diversification.

Credit Insights: 2025 Sector Outlooks and Federal Funding: Specific sector reliance on federal funding and our strategy for the year ahead.

*The contents of this commentary are intended for educational purposes only and are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or to adopt a specific investment strategy. All opinions expressed in this commentary are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this commentary should be considered tax or legal advice and investors should contact their tax professional for information regarding their tax situation. Please refer to the Disclosures link below for additional information.

https://www.bellehaven.com/disclosures

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Market Insights - Rate Cuts and Roller Coasters: Navigating the recent rate cut and ongoing market volatility. 

Credit Insights - Decision 2024: Elections and the Muni Market Impact: How will the 2024 election affect the municipal bond market? We uncover the potential impacts. 

While Economic Conditions Remain Resilient, Are We Getting Ahead of Ourselves? Discover why taxable municipal bonds are emerging as a smart, high-quality alternative to corporate bonds.

*The contents of this commentary are intended for educational purposes only and are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or to adopt a specific investment strategy. All opinions expressed in this commentary are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this commentary should be considered tax or legal advice and investors should contact their tax professional for information regarding their tax situation. Please refer to the Disclosures link below for additional information.

https://www.bellehaven.com/disclosures

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Thanks for listening to Belle Haven’s Q2 2024 Newsletter. Market and Credit Insights from Belle Haven’s Investment Team.

Market Insights: Interest Rate Debate

• Recent years have been marked by uncertainty and turmoil, a sentiment that continues as we approach the 2024 presidential race.
• Despite the challenges, there is a significant and lasting opportunity in the municipal market. 

Credit Insights: The Forecast for State Credits Calls for Cloudy Skies with a Very Small Chance of Stormy Weather

• With 47 state budgets enacted as of July 3rd, now is an opportune time to view what their financial picture may look like.
• We highlight budget forecasts for some notable states: IL, CA, NY & NJ. 

*The contents of this commentary are intended for educational purposes only and are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or to adopt a specific investment strategy. All opinions expressed in this commentary are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this commentary should be considered tax or legal advice and investors should contact their tax professional for information regarding their tax situation. Please refer to the Disclosures link below for additional information.

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• Uncertainty around interest rates persists, but we still find the current yield environment attractive with strong credit quality in today’s municipal market.

• We discuss the exposure of several sectors to the federal government and our approach to ensure that our credits are able withstand turbulent times at the federal level.

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• A recap on the Fed and the economy.

• We caution against continuing with the “T-bill and chill” strategy that proved successful for the better part of the last two years. While the Fed’s aggressive tightening scared many investors to the sidelines, the window for opportunity may be closing soon. It’s not too late to join the bond party, but we don’t expect the fun to last.

• A quick look at the various municipal sectors and how they may be able to meet the uncertainty ahead.

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In our Q3 2023 commentary, we discuss:

Market Insights: Would You Rather?

• There are many signs pointing to the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle being near rather than far, yet stubbornly high interest rates have persisted and continued to push higher.

• It is no longer a matter of “when” to invest in munis; it boils down to, would you rather weather short-term choppiness knowing that you can lock in some of the highest yields in decades? Or would you rather stave off potential short-term volatility in hopes of squeezing out a few more basis points?

Credit Insights: Is Mass Transit Derailing Your Portfolio?

• We discuss the fundamental weaknesses of the mass transit business model and how the Pandemic exposed them.

• Investors should analyze their mass transit exposure to ensure that they are sufficiently insulated from funding volatility and fiscal cliffs. A diligent and experienced municipal bond manager can help navigate the complexities around certain credits, like mass transit. 

*The contents of this commentary are intended for educational purposes only and are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or to adopt a specific investment strategy. All opinions expressed in this commentary are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this commentary should be considered tax or legal advice and investors should contact their tax professional for information regarding their tax situation. Please refer to the Disclosures link below for additional information.

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In our Q2 2023 commentary, we discuss:

• Market Insights: All Roads Lead to JeRome
• Credit Insights: What Does the "Death" of Downtown Mean for Municipal Bonds? (4:20)

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