Below the Line

Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s – from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.

In this final episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel discusses the possible impacts the election result may have on government policy, from Canberra to the world stage. What can Albanese get done, in concert with the independents, the Greens and other MPs?

They’re joined by PhD student Phoebe Hayman from La Trobe University to discuss the teal independents’ campaigns and how they might contribute to the new parliament. They’re also joined by Director of La Trobe Asia Bec Strating to discuss how the Solomon Islands dispute impacted the campaign and what our relationship with China might look like under Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

This final episode was recorded live at La Trobe University on May 24, and we have released it in two parts. Listen here to part one, which focuses on the election results and their fallout. This concluding edition looks ahead to the policy issues faced by the new federal parliament.

Our panellists also discuss the frontrunner for the Liberal leadership Peter Dutton, whom Simon Jackman believes is more pragmatic than some may think. Host Jon Faine and Andrea Carson speculate as to whether News Corporation will double down on its partisan alignment with the Coalition, or learn from its ultimately unsuccessful attempts to influence the campaign during its coverage.

Meanwhile, Anika Guaja wonders whether the teal independents might band together and form a new party ahead of the next federal election in 2025. We also hear from young La Trobe students about their experience of voting for the first time.

Finally, a sincere thank you to our regular listeners who have supported Below the Line throughout the election campaign. Our regular panellists are taking a well-earned break, but perhaps you might hear from them again at the next federal election.

To become one of more than 190,000 people who get The Conversation’s journalism by experts delivered straight to their inbox, subscribe today.

Disclosures: Simon Jackman is a consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP

Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then you’ll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seats”.

2022 was that breakthrough election. The Liberal party was turfed out, not just from government but also from many of its blue-ribbon seats, and we saw a historic wave of climate-focused candidates elected from outside the major parties.

In this episode of Below the Line, our expert panel dissects the results of this surprising federal election, from Anthony Albanese’s victory, to the breakthrough of independents and the Queensland Greens, and Scott Morrison “bulldozing” his way to the worst Liberal result since the second world war.

Our regular panellists recorded this final episode live at La Trobe University, which we are releasing in two parts. Part one focuses on the election results and their fallout, while the concluding edition of our limited-edition podcast series will examine the policy consequences going forward for the new federal parliament.

Our political experts also critique the media’s coverage of the campaign in light of the historic results. Host and former ABC Radio host Jon Faine believes the national broadcaster’s coverage was “below standard”, while he agrees with Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan’s criticisms of the unprofessional conduct of the national press gallery. Andrea Carson also calls out News Corp’s partisan coverage, the media’s “gotcha” questions, and their belated focus on women, while Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja take issue with their “presidentialised” approach that focused too much on the parties’ respective leaders.

Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.

To become one of more than 190,000 people who get The Conversation’s journalism by experts delivered straight to their inbox, subscribe today.

Disclosures: Simon Jackman is a consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

Image credit: Dean Lewins/AAP

What do One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Labor’s Tanya Plibersek have in common? They are both winning the battle for eyeballs on social media, says a top Facebook official.

In the final episode before polling day of our election podcast Below the Line, our regular panel talks to Mia Garlick, Facebook’s Director of Policy in Australia and New Zealand, about the ways politicians use the social media platform in election campaigns. Our political scientists quiz Garlick on how transparent the company is about the political advertising it carries and the assistance it provides to big-spending campaigners.

Video content is an increasingly important way for politicians to get their messages across to online audiences. Aside from Hanson and Plibersek, Garlick says politicians who are doing video messaging particularly well this election include the Liberal party’s Lucy Wicks and Jason Falinski, and founder of the Reason party Fiona Patten.

Andrea Carson says the digital campaign will ramp up once the three-day blackout on broadcast and newspaper political ads comes into effect on Wednesday evening, because online ads are outside the law’s reach. Jon Faine describes the law as “absurd” in the digital age, akin to using Morse Code.

Faine also asks the panel why Prime Minister Scott Morrison vowed this week to no longer be “a bulldozer”. “It was a significant shift on Scott Morrison’s part,” says Anika Gauja, in recognition that the public seems to want a more positive campaign than it has been getting. But with more than five million pre-poll and postal votes already cast, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green, has Morrison’s mea culpa come too late?

Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.

To become one of the thousands of people who help The Conversation produce journalism by experts, make a tax-deductible donation here.

Below the Line will broadcast one last episode after the election result next week. If you have a question you would like the panel to answer, email us at:

Disclosures: Andrea Carson has received funding for research projects from Facebook.

Jon Faine does freelance work for Industry Super Australia, a peak body for industry superannuation funds.

Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

Image credit: James Ross/AAP

An existential moment for the Liberal party? Another female leader for Labor? In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel talk us through what might happen to the major parties if they do not win government.

Led by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, the panel talks through the potential configurations of the next federal parliament, including the possible balance of power in both chambers.

Polling expert Simon Jackman analyses the latest voter surveys and tells us why a Labor victory still looks very likely at this stage. Anika Gauja maps the key contests in the Senate and the likelihood of minor parties and independents holding decisive votes.

Andrea Carson scores the final leaders’ debate and argues that Channel Seven’s format gave voters a better look at policy issues than the previous debate on Channel Nine. Some 811,000 Australians tuned in to watch Wednesday night’s event, but Faine wonders whether voters have heard enough about the issues they truly care about.

“The debate’s range of topics was still pretty narrow,” says Carson. “I think it was noted for what wasn’t debated rather than what was,” says Faine, who lists tax reform, industrial relations and Indigenous affairs as important but missing policy issues.

The panel also contemplates the Liberal party’s future if key moderates lose their seats, and whether it will move further to the right. Gauja lists the likely names to lead Labor if Anthony Albanese suffers a shock defeat on May 21.

Below the Line is brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.

Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP; Mick Tsikas/AAP

Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

Channel Nine’s leaders’ debate on Sunday night may have been a “shouty, unedifying spectacle”, but Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will do it all again on Wednesday evening on Channel Seven.

Why? In the latest episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our panel of experts explain that our political leaders are under pressure to persuade voters as quickly as possible, given early voting centres have now opened and Australians can cast their ballots.

But what policies aren’t being talked about on the debate stages and the campaign trail? Plenty, according to the University of Sydney’s Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja and La Trobe University’s Andrea Carson. Below the Line’s usual host Jon Faine is away for this episode, but will return later in the week.

Anika identifies migration and the casualisation of work as two key issues the major parties have largely steered clear of in the campaign so far. Simon is dumbfounded by how quickly politicians and the media have dropped the topic of COVID, given how many Australians have died with the disease in 2022. Meanwhile, Andrea wonders why renters can barely get a look in amid all the discussion of first-homebuyer schemes.

Finally, the panel discusses preference deals and whether they could lead to candidates being elected to the lower house despite having relatively few first preferences themselves.

Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. The show is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.

To become one of the thousands of people who help The Conversation produce journalism by experts, make a tax-deductible donation here.

Image credit: Alex Ellinghausen/AAP

Audio credit: Channel Nine/60 Minutes

Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

On Monday May 9, early voting centres will open and Australians can start casting their votes for the federal election.

Increasing numbers of Australians are choosing not to line up for their democracy sausage on election day, opting instead to get it out of the way beforehand. In 2019, about 40% of Australians either voted early by visiting a pre-poll station (32.7%) or they filled out a postal ballot (8.5%).

So the next week is crucial for parties’ and candidates’ campaigns – can they convince enough persuadable voters before they cast their ballots?

In this episode of Below the Line, award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine and our regular panel of political scientists discuss how early voting is “truncating” political campaigns, by bringing forward the crucial vote-turning period.

This means that the campaign will intensify in the next week, says Anika Gauja. The parties will need to get their key messages out repeatedly. Early voting is one of the reasons the leaders may have agreed to two debates in the next seven days – on Mothers’ Day with Channel 9 in prime time and another again on Wednesday 11 May with Channel 7.

They also discuss whether the Reserve Bank’s recent interest rate hike will hurt Prime Minister Scott Morrison, or perhaps help him among mortage-free retirees. On the whole, polling expert Simon Jackman believes it represents a net-negative for the government, because there are more mortgage-holders in marginal seats.

The political parties’ advertising is also dissected. Spending on ads shot up in the last week, with Labor coming out on top as the biggest spender on social media.

Finally, they discuss preferences, campaign finance disclosures and the curious case of a candidate for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party who lives 2,500 kilometres away from the electorate she’s seeking to represent.

Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. The show is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.

Correction: Jon states that the One Nation candidate for “Bob Katter’s seat in northern Queensland” lives in the Melbourne suburb of Pakenham, whereas the far-flung candidate Diane Pepe is actually contesting the seat of Herbert, which is adjacent to Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Disclosure: Andrea Carson has received funding for research projects from Facebook.

Image credit: Lukas Coch/Mick Tsikas/AAP

Is there any such thing as the so-called “ethnic vote” in a country as multicultural as Australia? Do different cultural groups favour one side of politics over another? For instance, in Victoria’s most marginal seat of Chisholm, will the Hong Kong-born Liberal MP Gladys Liu be advantaged by the Chinese diaspora living in her electorate?

In the latest episode of Below the Line, hosted by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, we talk to Chinese media expert Wilfred Wang from the University of Melbourne to understand why there are no easy answers to these questions.

Andrea Carson asks if a negative Labor ad circulating online about Liu’s connections to China – which Prime Minister Scott Morrison called “sewer tactics” – will harm her electoral prospects.

“It’s unlikely,” Dr Wang explains, because Chinese Australians do not vote uniformly, with their support fragmented across the major parties and the Greens.

He also says there is little evidence from 2019 that Liberal election messages on the Chinese online platform WeChat played a big role in Liu’s 2019 electoral success.

“WeChat didn’t play such a vital role in shaping Chinese Australians’ votes, even for those voters from mainland China,” says Dr Wang, contradicting some of the party and media speculation at the time.

To read Dr Wang’s forthcoming article on misinformation targeting migrant communities, which is mentioned in the program, visit his author profile early next week or subscribe to our daily newsletter to be alerted as soon as it goes live.

As Simon Jackman notes, the top 10 seats with the highest proportions of non-English speakers are in Melbourne and Sydney, and he reminds us that more research needs to be done to understand these ethnic voting patterns. Anika Gauja says this is further complicated by shifts in immigration demographics, with a big influx of Indian migrants in the past decade, which both sides of politics are trying to capitalise on.

Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese has returned to the campaign trail after a week in isolation with COVID-19 – but how much of a difference did his physical absence make to communication Labor’s messages to voters? Less than the Coalition would have liked, conclude our expert panel.

Finally, Jon asks why Scott Morrison and his team have already said “yes” to a second leaders debate on May 8 (Mother’s Day) with Channel Nine, but Labor is yet to commit? What does this tell us about how the Liberal party might see its own electoral prospects?

Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University.

Image credit: James Ross/AAP

Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

Former independent federal MP Cathy McGowan has hit back at John Howard’s description of independent candidates as “anti-Liberal groupies”.

In this Below the Line exclusive, McGowan says the former Prime Minister’s use of the term was clearly meant to be derogatory. “I suspect someone has given it to him,” she said. “It doesn’t bring to mind the calibre of the people who are standing. If he is trying to talk to people in the leafy suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, and calling those candidates groupies, then he has missed the mark totally.”

McGowan argues that independents cannot be put into just one category. While some are high-profile, have branded themselves with the colour teal and receive funding from the Climate200 group to promote action on climate change, “there are orange and pink and yellow and other colours as well… There are at least 25

McGowan, who defied the odds and won the traditional Liberal seat of Indi (previously held by Liberal Sophie Mirabella), predicted as many as ten independents could get over the line on polling day. “There is an incredible sense across the country of disillusionment with the government, and people are desperate to send a message to both parties that they are not doing well enough, and the independents are putting their hand up as a very viable alternative,” she said.

If McGowan’s prediction came true, independents would likely hold the balance of power in the lower house, forcing a minority government. Below the Line’s Anika Gauja says working with such a large crossbench would be “unprecedented in Australian federal politics”. And if the independents do poll well, Simon Jackman explains it may make counting the vote complicated on election night, possibly slowing down the final result.

Our expert panel also discuss Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s recent comment that “the only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war”, the record number of female candidates this election (39%, up from 32% last time around), and large numbers of young people enrolling to vote at the last minute.

Below the Line is a twice-weekly election podcast hosted by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine and brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University.

Image credit: Diego Fedele/AAP

Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.

When tennis superstar Dylan Alcott’s post rebuking the Prime Minister for his clumsy “blessed” comment is outperforming election news stories on social media, you know the leaders’ debate didn’t go as hoped for the Coalition.

Scott Morrison effectively lost a day of campaigning on Thursday, which he largely spent apologising to disability groups and families who were offended when he said he was “blessed” to have children without disability during Wednesday night’s leaders’ debate. Alcott posted, “Woke up this morning feeling very blessed to be disabled – I reckon my parents are pretty happy about it too.”

In this episode of Below the Line, host Jon Faine explores the political fallout from the debate and some policy highlights. Our expert panel consider what impact catching COVID and spending a week in isolation will have on Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s campaign. Anika Gauja says the virtual campaign will take off and it’s a good opportunity to hear more from Labor’s shadow ministers.

But why have we not seen more ministers and their political counterparts debating policies in the media, asks Faine? Do voters benefit from the media’s focus on the leaders, personalities and polls? Andrea Carson says The Conversation’s #SetTheAgenda survey is a good example of putting voters ahead of the interests of media proprietors and getting away from “horse race” coverage.

Finally, listen to what we make of the Solomon Islands’ security pact with China. Simon Jackman says it’s a major setback for the Coalition’s election campaign and not in Australia’s foreign policy interests.

Below the Line is brought to you twice a week by The Conversation with La Trobe University.

Image: Toby Zerna/AAP

Remember those classic lines that have come out of election debates? Recall 2013 when Tony Abbott asked the audience, “Does this guy [Kevin Rudd] ever shut up?” Or Bill Shorten in 2019 describing Scott Morrison as a “classic space invader?” Or back in 1993 when Paul Keating told John Hewson his costing of the proposed GST was like “a magic pudding?”

In our fourth episode of the Below the Line podcast, host Jon Faine asks if election debates still matter. Audience numbers have dropped significantly since 1993, when 71% of Australians surveyed said they tuned in. By 2016, viewership was down to 21%.

The first debate for the 2022 federal election campaign is scheduled for April 19 on Sky News, hosted in partnership with the Courier Mail. 100 undecided voters will pose questions to both major party leaders.

Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja remind us that while not many people tune in, debates can be dangerous for leaders if they stumble or fail to recall policy details. These “fails” then trend on social media. For example, there might be some tricky questions on climate change given Brisbane, where the debate is being held, was recently hit by devasting floods.

While audience numbers might be small, they capture some voting demographics which both major parties are targetting. Andrea Carson points out that Sky News is broadcast on the free-to-air WIN TV Network and Southern Cross Austereo across

Our expert panel also discuss Anthony Albanese’s polarising appearance at the BluesFest musical festival in Byron Bay, and the surfacing of controversial comments about transgender people made by the Liberal candidate for the Sydney-based seat of Warringah.

Below the Line is an election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University up until the vote is counted.

Image: Lukas Coch/AAP