Bettor Thinking

Bettor Thinking

By John AlesiaSportsBusinessInvestingFantasy Sports
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Bettor Thinking episodes

  • EMOTIONS ARE YOUR EDGE | Denise Shull (Billions' Real-Life Wendy Rhoades) Ep 009

    Denise Shull, the real-life inspiration behind Wendy Rhoades on the hit show Billions, joins Bettor Thinking to revolutionize how you understand emotions in decision-making. As founder of The ReThink Group and author of "Market Mind Games," Denise works with elite hedge fund managers and professional athletes to transform their relationship with feelings during high-pressure decisions.

    In this paradigm-shifting conversation, Denise challenges conventional wisdom by revealing how properly understood emotions can be your greatest asset in trading and betting - not your weakness. She directly counters our previous guest Adam Robinson's approach, arguing that intuition and emotional awareness are critical components of peak performance.

    Key topics include:

    • Why self-awareness is the #1 trait of successful traders
    • How to build and maintain "psychological capital"
    • Techniques to distinguish between intuition and fear
    • The surprising truth about information overload
    • Practical methods to prevent overtrading and tilt

    Whether you're a sports bettor, trader, poker player, or anyone who makes decisions under pressure, Denise's revolutionary approach to performance psychology will transform your relationship with risk.

    Download the Sharp App today and use code THINKING35 for 35% off your subscription: https://sharp.app

    Where betting meets behavioral science.

    1 hr 8 min
  • Your Brain vs Your Bankroll | Dr. Renee Miller Ep 008

    In this eye-opening episode of Bettor Thinking, we dive deep into the neuroscience of betting with Dr. Renee Miller, a uniquely qualified expert who bridges the gap between academia and sports betting. As both a neuroscience professor and fantasy sports analyst, Dr. Miller offers unprecedented insights into why we make the betting decisions we do – and often sabotage ourselves in the process.

    🏈 EXCLUSIVE ANNOUNCEMENT: Dr. Miller reveals her new platform Franchise League Football (franchiseleaguefootball.com), launching around NFL Draft 2024! This innovative fantasy platform features:

    • Contract-based keeper leagues
    • Salary cap management
    • College player reservation system
    • Injury substitution mechanics
    • Public and private league options

      • Key Discussion Points:

      • Why the anticipation of winning affects our brain more than actual wins
      • How the "endowment effect" makes us overvalue our fantasy draft picks
      • The science behind our tendency to keep "dead to me" lists of players
      • Why most bettors struggle with proper bankroll management
      • Expert tips for making more rational betting decisions

        • 🎯 Use code THINKING35 for exclusive access to our Sharp App community

        Connect with us:

        • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpAppSportsBetting
        • Twitter: @thesharpapp
        • Discord: https://discord.gg/PdEjwzM3nA

          • Timestamps:

          00:00 - Introduction
          02:07 - Dr. Miller's unique background
          15:30 - The psychology of betting decisions
          31:45 - Fantasy sports strategy insights
          46:20 - Franchise League Football announcement
          55:40 - Closing thoughts

          #SportsBetting #BehavioralScience #FantasySports #BettingPsychology #SportsBettingTips

          1 hr 5 min
        • AI Will Change Trading And Sports Betting Forever! - Adam Robinson Ep 007

          Princeton Review co-founder and global macro advisor Adam Robinson delivers a fascinating warning about the future of trading and investing. Drawing from his unique background as a chess master, test prep innovator, and macro investor, Robinson explains why artificial intelligence will fundamentally reshape markets within the next 5-10 years.

          In this compelling episode, we explore:

          • Why copying Warren Buffett's success is psychologically impossible

          • How AI mastered chess in 4 hours and what it means for trading
          • The population collapse nobody's talking about
          • Why most trading psychology advice is dangerously wrong
          • The future of sports betting in an AI-dominated world
          • How successful traders really think about risk

          From an unexpected technical difficulty that turns into a lesson about preparation, to profound insights about market psychology, this conversation challenges conventional wisdom about trading, investing, and decision-making under uncertainty.

          Whether you're an active trader, sports bettor, or simply interested in making better decisions, Robinson's counter-intuitive perspectives will change how you think about edge-finding and risk management in an AI-driven future.

          🎯 Download the Sharp App and use code THINKING35 for 35% off

          💬 Join our Discord community for daily insights
          🎧 New episodes every week

          #BettorThinking #TradingPsychology #BehavioralEconomics #RiskManagement

          1 hr 23 min
        • Health Economists Secrets To Building Winning Sports Betting Models - Seth BTB Analytics Ep 006

          In this eye-opening episode of Bettor Thinking, we sit down with Seth from BTB Analytics, who transformed his background in pharmacy and health economics into a remarkable career beating the NFL betting markets. With a proven 55% win rate over two years, Seth breaks down how he approaches sports betting through a unique analytical lens.

          Key highlights from this episode:

          • Why traditional NFL stats might be leading you astray
          • The surprising truth about market timing and why Monday bettors have an edge
          • How Seth's pharmaceutical background influenced his betting model development
          • The real reason most sports bettors fail (it's not what you think)

          Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, this episode delivers actionable insights that will transform your approach to sports betting. Seth shares his journey from analyzing drug trials to developing winning NFL betting models, proving that success in sports betting isn't about insider knowledge—it's about superior analysis.

          🎯 Special Offer for Listeners:

          Download Sharp.app and use code THINKING35 for 35% off your subscription. Join our community of analytical bettors making smarter decisions.

          📊 Access Seth's Data and Analysis:

          Visit BTB Analytics at https://www.btb-analytics.com/fantasy-football-data

          Bettor Thinking - Where betting meets behavioral science. New episodes every week exploring the intersection of psychology, risk-taking, and sports betting.

          #SportsBetting #NFLBetting #BettingAnalytics #DataScience #BettorThinking

          1 hr 10 min
        • Why 'Never Hedge' Is Costing You Money | Expected Growth vs Expected Value- Dan Abrams Ep 005

          In this episode of Bettor Thinking, Dan Abrams (author of "But How Much Did You Lose?") challenges conventional sports betting wisdom with mathematical proof that will change how you think about bankroll management.

          Dan explains why the common "never hedge" mentality is fundamentally flawed and demonstrates how negative EV hedges can actually maximize your bankroll's expected growth. Through clear examples and mathematical analysis, he breaks down:

          • Why Expected Growth (EG) can be more important than Expected Value (EV)

          • The mathematics behind optimal position sizing
          • How the Kelly Criterion really works (and why most bettors misuse it)
          • Why most "flat bettors" aren't really flat betting
          • The truth about win rate ceilings for professional bettors
          • When negative EV hedges are the sharp play

          This isn't your typical betting podcast with hot picks and empty promises. Instead, Dan provides advanced bankroll management strategies that separate the pros from the amateurs.

          Whether you're betting hundreds or hundreds of thousands, this episode will fundamentally change how you approach position sizing and hedging opportunities.

          Tags: Sports Betting, Gambling, Bankroll Management, Kelly Criterion, Sports Trading, Risk Management, Expected Value, Hedging Strategy

          1 hr 5 min
        • Why Your Gut Instinct Is Costing You Money with Dan Ariely Eps 004

          World-renowned behavioral economist Dan Ariely joins Better Thinking to explore why we make poor decisions and how to outsmart our own instincts. While not a sports bettor himself, Dr. Ariely's groundbreaking research into human behavior offers invaluable insights for anyone looking to make better betting decisions.

          In this fascinating discussion, we explore:

          • Why humans are naturally poor at handling risk
          • How stress affects our ability to spot patterns
          • The psychology behind why we hold onto losing positions
          • Why some people thrive on uncertainty while others avoid it

          Dr. Ariely, bestselling author and TED speaker, brings a fresh perspective to sports betting psychology that you won't find anywhere else. Whether you're a professional bettor or just getting started, this episode will change how you think about decision-making.

          1 hr 2 min
        • The Truth Behind Profitable Sports Betting - Ed Miller Ep 003

          🎯 In this episode of The Bettor Thinking Podcast, we sit down with Ed Miller, a former Microsoft engineer turned professional gambler who's been crushing betting markets since 2003. From the poker boom to today's sports betting landscape, Ed breaks down where the real edges exist in modern betting markets.

          🔑 Key Topics:

          • Why same-game parlays and live betting markets are still beatable
          • How correlation creates exploitable opportunities
          • The truth about "top-down" betting approaches
          • Real examples of profitable betting strategies
          • The evolution of betting markets from poker to sports betting

          📚 Ed Miller's Must-Read Books:

          "The Logic of Sports Betting"

          "Interception: Modern Sports Betting"

          🔗 Follow Ed Miller:

          Twitter: @EdMillerPoker

          🎙️ Follow The Bettor Thinking Podcast:

          Twitter:@theSharpApp
          Instagram:@statsational
          Website: bettorthinkingpod.com

          #SportsBetting #GamblingTips #BettingStrategy #SportsBettingAdvice #BettingEducation

          1 hr 9 min
        • From Poker Prodigy to Wall Street: How a 14-Year-Old Gambler Became a Quant Trading Legend Aaron Brown Ep 002

          The episode features Aaron Brown, a former professional gambler turned Wall Street quant trader and risk manager at AQR Capital Management. The conversation traces his fascinating journey from a 14-year-old poker player in Seattle to becoming a prominent figure in financial risk management.

          Key Points Discussed:

          1. Early Years:
            • Started reading financial pages and horse racing data as a child
            • Began playing poker at age 14 in Seattle taverns
            • Used gambling to help pay for his Harvard education
              1. Professional Gambling:
                • Developed from local games to high-stakes private games
                • Played with influential people including politicians, businessmen, and academics
                • Emphasized the importance of social skills in professional gambling
                • Discussed the evolution of poker from underground games to mainstream entertainment
                  1. Sports Betting:
                    • Explained the transformation of sports betting from mob-controlled to modern markets
                    • Discussed quantitative approaches to sports betting
                    • Emphasized the importance of getting bets down early and providing valuable information to bookmakers
                      1. Wall Street Career:
                        • Transitioned from gambling to quantitative trading in the 1980s
                        • Detailed the evolution of mathematical approaches on Wall Street
                        • Explained the transition from floor trading to quantitative analysis
                        • Discussed his role in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives
                          1. Risk Management Principles:
                            • Emphasized the importance of proper bet sizing
                            • Discussed Kelly Criterion and its applications
                            • Highlighted common mistakes in trading and betting
                            • Stressed the importance of emotional control in decision-making

                              • Books:

                              • "The Poker Face of Wall Street" (2006) - https://www.amazon.com/Poker-Face-Wall-Street/dp/0470127317
                              • "Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street" (2011) - https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blooded-Risk-Secret-History-Street/dp/1118043863
                              • "Financial Risk Management For Dummies" (2015) - https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Risk-Management-Dummies-Brown/dp/1119082200
                              • "A World of Chance: Betting on Religion, Games, Wall Street" (co-authored with Reuven and Gabrielle Brenner) (2008) - https://www.amazon.com/World-Chance-Betting-Religion-Street/dp/0521884667

                                • Website:

                                • Personal Website: http://www.eraider.com

                                  • Professional Background:

                                  • Former Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management
                                  • Columnist for Wilmott and Quantum magazines
                                  • Editorial Board member of the Global Association of Risk Professionals
                                  • Member of the National Book Critics Circle
                                  • Harvard University (SB in Applied Mathematics)
                                  • University of Chicago (MBA in Finance and Statistics)

                                    • You can also find his articles and commentary on:

                                    • RealClearMarkets: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/authors/aaron_brown/
                                    • Goodreads Author Page: https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/229051.Aaron_Brown
                                      • 1 hr 17 min
                                    • EP 01 Joseph Buchdahl Why Most Sports Bettors Fail: Insights from a Betting Expert - BETTOR THINKING

                                      Summary


                                      In this conversation, Joseph Buchdahl and John Alesia delve into the intricacies of sports betting, exploring the differences between sharp and recreational bookmakers, the psychological aspects of betting, and the importance of understanding true odds. They discuss cognitive biases, loss aversion, and the role of variance in betting outcomes. The conversation also touches on the wisdom of crowds in determining odds and the complexities of professional betting, including bankroll management and the psychological factors that influence betting behavior.

                                       

                                      Takeaways


                                      The distinction between sharp and recreational bookmakers is crucial in understanding betting dynamics. Loss aversion significantly impacts bettors' psychology, making losses feel more painful than wins feel rewarding. Cognitive biases can lead bettors to overestimate their skills based on early wins. The wisdom of the crowd can help identify true odds in sports betting markets. Understanding true odds requires analyzing market dynamics and bookmaker behavior. Variance plays a significant role in betting outcomes, affecting both winning and losing streaks. Hedging can be a useful strategy for managing risk and reducing variance in betting. The anticipation of rewards drives the psychology of gambling, making 50-50 games particularly appealing. Professional betting is one of the hardest ways to make a living, requiring discipline and emotional detachment. The allure of betting often stems from the dopamine rush associated with potential wins.

                                      Chapters 00:00 Understanding the Wisdom of the Crowds in Sports Betting 07:10 The Dynamics of Betting Limits and Market Behavior 12:38 Cognitive Biases in Betting: Winning and Losing Perspectives 18:51 The Practical Application of Wisdom of the Crowds 29:04 Understanding Betting Psychology and Cognitive Biases 37:41 Variance and Betting Strategies 47:00 The Role of Dopamine in Gambling Behavior 55:06 The Intersection of Betting and Psychology

                                      Joseph Buchdahl Website ✅✅ https://www.football-data.co.uk/ ✅✅

                                      ✅✅Squares and Sharps, Suckers and Sharks: The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/Squares-Sharps-Suckers-Sharks-Psychology/dp/0857304844/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.zogBhfP0Bgy1ewy6dlv_Tv_0BgcePhvxIc4ZVs9BE8fxoNhzTbQo1ucEqtm4W0SBzxOz3PUHxbQrWNcedZnDPQ.YqgknAJw1QcQoT61Ym6SfwJjhQoqJELiWky4edDhi0c&dib_tag=se&qid=1734282896&refinements=p_27%3AJoseph+Buchdahl&s=books&sr=1-1

                                      ✅✅ Monte Carlo Or Bust ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/Monte-Carlo-Bust-Simulations-Aspiring-ebook/dp/B095SXTZ19/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=4baZI&content-id=amzn1.sym.05575cf6-d484-437c-b7e0-42887775cf30&pf_rd_p=05575cf6-d484-437c-b7e0-42887775cf30&pf_rd_r=132-1669558-1651255&pd_rd_wg=TTb8F&pd_rd_r=b2c578d2-a578-482c-8596-60cce62fa092&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk

                                      ✅✅ How to Find a Black Cat In A Coal Cellar ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/How-Find-Black-Coal-Cellar-ebook/dp/B00EBNXNS8?ref_=ast_author_dp

                                      THE SHARP APP Get Sharp App:
                                      ✅✅ https://sharp.app ✅✅
                                      Code THINKING35 for 35% off

                                      Discord
                                      ✅✅ https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq ✅✅


                                      1 hr 1 min

                                    About Bettor Thinking

                                    From the publisher's feed

                                    Bettor Thinking isn’t just another sports betting podcast—it’s your masterclass in decision-making excellence. Join host John ”Statsational” Alesia as he explores the fascinating intersection of sports betting, behavioral psychology, and analytical thinking through conversations with an elite roster of guests including Wall Street quants, professional bettors, behavioral economists, and industry innovators.