Beyond the Box Score with Jay and Guyon

Two friends, one question: are NFL teams getting smarter on fourth down? Beyond the Box Score breaks down the numbers behind the calls, in plain English. New episodes every other week.

Music: 'Bad Boyz' by Sky Cassette on #Uppbeat https://uppbeat.io/c/sky-cassette License code: W0Z1KGBFHJKOJXWH

Got a call you're still mad about? Leave us a voicemail and we might play it on the show.

Jay and Guyon kick off the show with a look around the league and a plain-English breakdown of expected points and expected points added (EPA). Then they dig into fourth downs: what the data says, three real calls from this season, and one decision for you to make yourself.

In this episode:

• Minnesota, the Colts and the Patriots' 8 for 11 on fourth downs

• Expected points, explained with real plays

• Are coaches going for it less, or just in different spots?

• Three real fourth-down calls from this season

• Your call: fourth and 2 at the 40, go or punt?

Chapters

0:00 Cold open

0:24 Welcome

1:49 Around the league

3:08 Expected points, explained

6:28 Fourth downs: what the data says

8:37 Call 1: Lions at Cardinals

9:28 Call 2: Eagles at Jaguars

9:59 Call 3: Bengals at Ravens

13:52 Your call: go or punt?

15:36 Wrap-up

Got a fourth-down call you're still mad about? Send it to us on Instagram @beyondtheboxscoreshow and we might break it down.

Resources

• League fourth-down attempts and conversion rates through Week 7, and the Patriots' 8 for 11: The Boston Globe, Oct. 29, 2026 https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/29/sports/mike-vrabel-patriots-analysis-fourth-down/

• The fourth-down uncertainty research: Brill, Yurko and Wyner, "Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making," The American Statistician, Vol. 79, No. 3 (2025), pp. 393-409 Free preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.03490v6

• Call 1, Lions at Cardinals (Week 5): https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/lions-needed-clutch-4thdown-conversions-to-spark-their-blowout-of-the-cardinals

• Call 2, Eagles vs. Jaguars (Week 5): https://www.jaguars.com/news/game-report-2026-week-5-jaguars-19-eagles-17

• Call 3, Bengals at Ravens (Week 7): https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-ravens-recap-postgame-notes-quotes-stats-week-7-2026

• Play-by-play data: nflverse-data by the nflverse team, licensed CC BY 4.0. The numbers in the episode are our own summaries of it. https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

• Expected points: the model in nflfastR, the R package by Sebastian Carl and Ben Baldwin https://github.com/nflverse/nflfastR

Credits

Hosts: Jay and Guyon. Music: 'Bad Boyz' by Sky Cassette on #Uppbeat https://uppbeat.io/c/sky-cassette License code: W0Z1KGBFHJKOJXWH. AI note: we drafted the script with AI from our own research, then recorded it ourselves. Both voices are real recordings. Episode art: the background picture was made with AI (FLUX.1 schnell). Beyond the Box Score is copyright 2026. All rights reserved.

Got a call you're still mad about? Leave us a voicemail and we might play it on the show.