BID/ASK

Welcome:

1:00 Anthropic Statement by Dario. What did he say and why does it matter? What could be the reason behind the statement and the timing of it?

21:00 - Clarity Act: What is a procedural vote and why does it matter? What happens next and what stocks are we watching to take advantage of this

27:00 - CRCL - Why does CRCL benefit and what is backing CRCL's stablecoins?

28:00 - When TLT tipped it's hand for an amazing SPX day trade

37:40 - BOJ rate decision, do we finally get a hike and

39:00 - FOMC and Bessent - The long and the short end of the rates

https://substack.com/@therealnasa00

Seasonality , Fomc , and The Bessent put recap.

BESSENT SANCTIONS, JENSEN SWEATS, WARSH LURKS WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS....

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS WENT FROM 45 BILLION TO 10 BILLION ON 400 PERCENT LEVERAGE, AND GRIFFIN'S CITADEL TOOK THE BOOK AT A DISCOUNT. CRAMER CALLS IT A CLEARING EVENT, AND THE TAPE AGREES. THE MARKET RIPPED STRAIGHT OFF THE FORCED SELLING INTO FRESH RECORD HIGHS.

THEN THE OTHER SHOE. SPCX LOCKUP CRACKS OPEN AUGUST 6, DUMPING 911 MILLION SHARES WORTH 123 BILLION INTO THE FLOAT.

WAS THAT THE BOTTOM OR THE FIRST BODY OUT THE DOOR. LETS GET INTO IT.

FOMC IS THE MAIN EVENT AND IT IS WARSH IN THE CHAIR. WE BREAK DOWN THE DECISION, THE STATEMENT LANGUAGE, AND WHAT WARSH ACTUALLY SIGNALED VERSUS WHAT THE TAPE WANTED TO HEAR. IS THE MARKET GETTING THE REGIME CHANGE IT PRICED IN OR IS IT STILL WAITING.

THEN WE GO WHERE THE MONEY IS MOVING. MOMENTUM NAMES ARE LEADING THE MOVE DOWN. THE SAME LEADERSHIP THAT CARRIED THE TAPE HIGHER IS NOW OUT FRONT ON THE WAY OUT. WHO IS BREAKING, WHO IS HOLDING, AND WHETHER THIS IS ROTATION OR SOMETHING DEEPER.

PLUS THE BIG PICTURE. RATES, POSITIONING, AND THE TECHNICAL LEVELS THAT MATTER ON NQ AND ES HEADING INTO THE NEXT SESSION. IMO THE SETUP IS MORE FRAGILE THAN THE HEADLINES SUGGEST.

PULL UP A CHAIR. THIS IS BID/ASK.

THE 30YR HAS BEEN ABOVE 5 FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH SINCE 2007, WITH THE FED 150BP LOWER THAN IT WAS THEN. THAT GAP IS TERM PREMIUM, NOT POLICY. INSIDE: WHY THE FED CANT FIX THE LONG END, HOW IT TRANSMITS TO YOUR AI NAMES, AND WHAT SECTION 301 DOES TO THE INFLATION LEG ON FRIDAY.

This week on Bid/Ask: the Korean ants. Who the gaemi are, why Korea's margin debt is growing at double the pace of the US and China, and why traders there are paying nearly 10 percent interest to stay levered long. With Samsung and SK Hynix making up 42 percent of the entire KOSPI, a crack in Seoul becomes a crack in MU, SNDK, and the whole photonics complex by the New York open. Plus the flow data that should be on every momentum trader's radar: Korean retail is now buying 2x long AND 2x short ETFs on the same US stock at the same time, building synthetic volatility positions that have historically marked late-stage exhaustion.

Then in the back half: the June CPI print. The biggest monthly decline in inflation since April 2020, why a peace deal wrote that number and not the Fed, what it does to the July FOMC decision, and why the oil chart that gave us this print is already threatening to take it back.

Signal over noise.

SK Hynix prices the biggest foreign listing in US history into a bleeding semi tape. The CLARITY Act has three Senate weeks to live or it's dead until 2030. And airlines report earnings with jet fuel surging on the Iran escalation. Three stories, one barrel of oil pricing all of them. We break down the $28B Hynix ADR debut and what it means for DRAM and MU, the 60 vote math blocking crypto's biggest bill, the GENIUS Act rule deadline July 18, and why airline fuel guidance is the first earnings season casualty of oil at $78.

ON THIS EPISODE OF THE BID/ASK PODCAST WE BREAK DOWN THE TWO BIGGEST STORIES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK.

FIRST, META RIPS NEARLY 9% ON REPORTS OF META COMPUTE, A NEW CLOUD BUSINESS BUILT TO RENT OUT EXCESS AI CAPACITY FROM ITS $125 TO $145 BILLION INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT. WE EXPLAIN WHY THE CAPEX BEAR CASE THAT CRUSHED THE STOCK ALL YEAR JUST GOT REPRICED, WHAT TRUST ME CAPEX VERSUS SHOW ME CAPEX MEANS FOR THE REST OF THE HYPERSCALERS, AND WHY THE SAME HEADLINE HAMMERED CRWV, MU AND SNDK.

THEN WE GO DEEP ON TRUMP ACCOUNTS AHEAD OF THE JULY 4 LAUNCH. THE $1,000 FEDERAL SEED, THE $5,000 ANNUAL CONTRIBUTION MECHANICS, THE DELL FOUNDATION LAYER, AND THE FINE PRINT EVERY PARENT NEEDS TO KNOW. PLUS THE HOOD ANGLE. ROBINHOOD IS THE BROKERAGE AND TRUSTEE BEHIND THE ENTIRE PROGRAM, AND WE BREAK DOWN WHY 60 MILLION ELIGIBLE KIDS AND A MANDATED PASSIVE BID INTO US INDEX FUNDS COULD BE THE MOST UNDERRATED STRUCTURAL FLOW STORY OF THE DECADE.

MICRON'S RECORD QUARTER, THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE READ THROUGH, AND WARSH'S DOLLAR. SEASON 2 KICKS OFF WITH THE BIGGEST CATALYST OF THE WEEK.