We unpack October’s ADP payroll report during the record government shutdown and parse where hiring is actually happening. Large firms added jobs while small and mid-sized businesses shed workers, with most gains tied to services and AI-driven spending.

• October ADP report shows 42,000 private payroll gain
• Caution that one month does not set a trend
• Hiring concentrated in large employers, 500 plus
• Small businesses shed jobs in five of the last six months
• Service-producing sectors lead gains, AI spend likely a factor
• Limited official data due to the shutdown constrains visibility
• Brief wrap and where to find past episodes

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