Retail sales just flipped the script: after a weak July, August comes in with a sharp rebound, and the details matter if you care about where the U.S. economy is headed. We walk through the August retail sales report and why a 1.2% monthly gain grabs market attention, especially with gasoline station sales up 3.1% and “core” spending measures also showing strength. If you’ve been wondering whether the consumer is finally cracking, this data argues the spending story is not over yet. 

We dig into the category-level moves that help explain the jump, including motor vehicles, furniture, electronics, health and personal care, internet shopping, and eating and drinking places. We also talk about why e-commerce surged and how Amazon Prime Day being pulled forward can make one month look soft and the next month look strong. It’s a good reminder that promotions and timing can distort short-term readings, even when underlying consumer demand is steady. 

Then we hit the key caveat: retail sales are reported in nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted terms. That makes it hard to separate true increases in spending from higher prices, especially in categories impacted by inflation and supply chain disruptions. We close with what we’re watching as the Fed meets, and why the press conference can change the market’s interpretation of today’s data. Subscribe, share the show, and leave a review, then tell us: does this report signal real strength or just inflation in disguise?

https://youtu.be/vcOZXjWQhKM

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation came in hotter than expected, and the latest CPI report may have strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike next week.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman dissects the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, hotter core CPI, and continued pressure on American households. She also explains why markets are rallying even as the odds of a Fed hike rise, and what investors should be watching heading into next week’s Fed meeting.

Topics include:
• The latest CPI and core inflation numbers
• Why energy prices remain a major inflation driver
• Rising costs for consumers and declining real wages
• Why Fed rate hike odds have jumped
• Why stocks are rising despite higher rate expectations
• What to watch at next week’s Fed meeting

Subscribe for timely market insights and economic analysis from Markets with Megan.

Learn more at MarketsWithMegan.fm.

#Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #FedRateHike #InterestRates #StockMarket #MarketsWithMegan #MarketUpdate #Investing #Economy

https://youtu.be/SG9-XZB2xv8

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation came in as expected. The problem? “As expected” is still too hot. The latest Producer Price Index showed inflation pressures continuing to build:

📈 Headline PPI: +5.4% year over year
📈 PPI excluding food, energy and trade: +4.7%
✈️ Airline prices: nearly +20% year over year
⚖️ Legal services: about +8%
🏥 Hospital inpatient care: +4.3%

Those details matter because several feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, and they’re not giving policymakers much reason to feel comfortable.

Markets are taking notice. The probability of a rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting has climbed to 72%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 4.9% and closer to the 5% level.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down what today’s PPI report tells us about inflation, interest rates, and what investors should be watching when CPI arrives tomorrow.

🎧 Watch the latest Markets with Megan and get a complete history of all episodes at MarketsWithMegan.fm.

#MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #PPI #Investing #Markets

https://youtu.be/TWB0CvQUt1I

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The August jobs report landed well above expectations, and it's the last one the Fed will see before its September meeting. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month against a forecast of just 55,000, with construction, AI-related hiring, and government payrolls all contributing. Megan Horneman breaks down what a beat this size means for interest rate policy.

Wages grew three-tenths of a percent for the month, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the labor force added more than half a million workers. Markets are already reacting: equities slipped as traders priced in a 62% chance the Fed raises rates in September.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why 162,000 new jobs was nearly triple what economists expected
- Where the job growth came from: construction, AI-related hiring, and government
- What rising wages and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate signal
- Why markets are now pricing in a 62% chance of a September rate hike
- How short- and long-term Treasury yields are reacting differently to the report

Subscribe for a new episode every week.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateHike #Economy #StockMarket #Investing #WageGrowth #Unemployment #MarketsWithMegan

https://youtu.be/v-Am2JambtE

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The ISM Services Index ticked up in August, and the report's prices paid component jumped to its highest level since August 2022, back when the economy was still digging out of the post-pandemic inflation spike. Megan breaks down what's behind the rise in service sector activity and why the pricing data is worth watching heading into the Fed's next move.


In this episode, Megan covers:
🔹 Why the ISM Services Index rose in August and what's driving the strength
🔹 The prices paid component's jump to its highest level since August 2022
🔹 Business activity and new orders climbing to their highest levels in over a year
🔹 How Fed speech on holding rates steady moved the equity markets today
🔹 Why tomorrow's jobs report is the last piece of data before the Fed's rate decision

If you're trying to make sense of what these numbers mean for your own portfolio and retirement planning, take five minutes to listen in. 

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#ISMServices #ServiceSectorInflation #FederalReserve #JobsReport #InterestRates #Inflation #MarketsWithMegan #Economy #FedDecision #StockMarket

https://youtu.be/Sk63JVHeZ0g

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech at this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and it has real implications for where interest rates go next. Hear what he said about inflation, the labor market, and why the Fed isn't backing off even after a few better-than-expected readings this summer.

Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and Warsh made clear that "better than expected" doesn't mean "good enough." With more than half of the PCE basket still growing above 3%, and financial conditions loose rather than restrictive, the case for a rate hike is back on the table. Here's what it means for markets heading into a historically volatile September.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech came across as more hawkish than expected
- The Fed's shift in focus from labor market stability to persistent price pressures
- Why more than half the PCE inflation basket is still running above 3%
- What "price stability is not self-executing" means for future Fed action
- How markets reacted across the yield curve and in equities
- Why September could bring more volatility as the market digests this speech

If you're trying to make sense of what a hawkish Fed means for your money heading into the fall, this one's for you.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #Inflation #InterestRates #FedPolicy #Investing #Economy #RateHike #MarketNews

https://youtu.be/ZxeO4jCOiEE

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The July PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rising 0.2% month over month against a forecast of just 0.1%. Core PCE now sits at 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the prior month but still well above the Fed's 2% target. Megan breaks down what the data actually shows beneath the headlines.

This matters because the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week, and markets are watching closely for any hint of tone on where rates go next. With services inflation still running hot and consumers leaning harder on savings and credit cards, Megan explains why she does not think the Fed has room to sound dovish right now.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why July's PCE inflation report ran hotter than economists expected
- Core PCE holding at 3.3% year over year, still far from the Fed's target
- "Super core" services inflation stuck near 3.9% and what that signals for the Fed
- The personal savings rate rising to 3%, still well below the pre-COVID average of 7 to 8%
- Why consumers are digging into savings and using credit cards as prices stay elevated
- What to watch as the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week

If you're trying to make sense of what this inflation data means for your money and for the Fed's next move, this one is worth five minutes of your time. Subscribe now.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#PCEInflation #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #CorePCE #InflationData #SavingsRate #FedRateDecision #EconomicData #MarketsWithMegan #Inflation2026

https://youtu.be/d_e28gvEQlo

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July meeting, and Megan breaks down what they actually reveal about the committee's thinking heading into September. The minutes show risks to employment and growth skewed to the downside, while inflation risk is still seen as tilted to the upside, even with a general upbeat tone on the economy overall.

A few committee members already favored raising rates rather than waiting, a reminder of what happened in 2022 when the Fed had to move aggressively to catch up on inflation. Megan also covers why markets are rallying today, and it has less to do with the Fed and more to do with a Treasury announcement on long-term bond buybacks.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- What the Fed's July meeting minutes reveal about inflation and growth risk
- Why underlying inflation is still elevated even after stripping out tariff and energy effects
- The case for the Fed trimming its meeting schedule from eight to six per year
- Why some committee members wanted to raise rates sooner rather than later
- What's actually driving today's rally in stocks and bonds
- Why September remains a possible date for the Fed's next move

If you're trying to make sense of what the Fed is really signaling before their next meeting, this one's for you. Give it a watch and subscribe so you don't miss next week's breakdown.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#FederalReserve #FedMinutes #Inflation #InterestRates #FOMC #StockMarket #BondMarket #EconomicData #MarketsWithMegan #FedSeptember

https://youtu.be/tDBek0aW3zo

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Today's data on the consumer wasn't good. July retail sales fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% gain, following a decline the month before. Megan Horneman breaks down what's behind the pullback and why the control group number, which feeds directly into GDP, matters even more than the headline.

In this episode:

- Why July retail sales fell 0.3% instead of rising as expected
- What the control group reading tells us about GDP
- Why restaurant spending rose 0.5% even as other categories pulled back
- Consumer confidence's first drop in three months
- Why one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.3% matters to the Fed
- What upcoming labor market and PCE data could mean for a September rate decision

Give it a watch, and subscribe for the weekly breakdown.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#RetailSales #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketsWithMegan #EconomicData #Fed2026 #ConsumerSpending #RateDecision

https://youtu.be/P3zMj-JpZ8s

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

July's Consumer Price Index is in, and markets are cheering. Headline CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, while core CPI came in at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Both numbers landed right where economists expected, and both ticked slightly lower than June. But as Megan explains, "as expected" isn't the same as "good news."

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why July's in-line CPI report still isn't something to fully celebrate
- How service sector inflation reversed course and ticked back up to 0.2%
- Which categories, like airline fares and apparel, are still pushing prices higher
- Why core CPI has now stayed above the Fed's target for 63 straight months
- What sticky inflation could mean for the Fed's September and December decisions
- Why tomorrow's PPI report and the upcoming PCE reading matter for the bigger picture

If you're trying to make sense of what today's inflation numbers really mean for your money, this one's worth five minutes. Subscribe so you don't miss next week's breakdown.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #ConsumerPriceIndex #MarketsWithMegan #Economy #FedRateDecision #InflationData #StockMarket

https://youtu.be/7U4fEg5Jx7s

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...