Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

Inflation is heating up, consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, and the Federal Reserve faces another difficult decision. Could another interest rate hike be coming before the end of 2026?

Chief Investment Officer Megan Horneman discusses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales report, and what they could mean for the economy, stock market, and Federal Reserve policy.

Find out:
- Why producer prices surged 1.3% in September, the fastest monthly increase since April 2023
- How rising energy prices and trade-related costs are fueling inflation
- Why headline retail sales may be masking weaker consumer spending
- What softer spending could mean for third-quarter GDP
- Why the Fed may hold rates in October but consider another hike in December
- What's driving the divergence between the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq as Treasury yields decline

With inflation pressures persisting and underlying consumer demand showing signs of slowing, the Fed's path forward is anything but straightforward.

Subscribe to Markets with Megan for timely economic insights and market commentary from Megan Horneman.

Visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #CPI #PPI #EconomicOutlook #MarketNews #Investing

https://youtu.be/2CAh86tQ944

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The September ISM Services Report showed the service sector, where Americans spend most of their money, ending the third quarter on a softer note. Megan Horneman explains why business activity and new orders slipped while the prices paid component jumped to its highest level since July 2022.

Supply chain pressure tied to the war with Iran, along with tariffs and high fuel costs, is showing up in industries from construction to agriculture. Bond yields rose on the report, and the data likely won't change the Fed's October decision but does raise the odds of another hike in December.

In this episode, Megan covers:

• Why the services composite slipped in September and still sits in expansion territory
• Where the weakness showed up: business activity, new orders, and a steep drop in export orders
• Prices paid at the highest since July 2022 and order backlogs at their highest since 2022
• How diesel costs are driving up freight and pushing nitrogen prices near record highs for farmers
• Why construction firms say half of buyers walking in can't qualify at current interest rates
• What rising yields signal for the Fed's October meeting and the odds of a December hike

Keeping up with every data release takes time you may not have. Megan sorts out what matters in about five minutes, so listen in and subscribe to catch the next one.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #ISMServices #ServiceSector #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BondYields #SupplyChain #DieselPrices #EconomicData

https://youtu.be/MxOE30jtf2g

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The September jobs report came in much weaker than expected, and it could change the Federal Reserve’s next move.

The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the prior two months were revised lower by roughly 60,000 jobs. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, labor force participation increased, and wage growth came in around 3% year over year.

So what does all of this mean for interest rates?

Megan Horneman shares the latest employment data, where jobs are being gained and lost, why Treasury yields are falling, and how the report could give the Fed more flexibility to hold rates steady in October and wait until December before making another move.

Plus, find out why equity markets are responding positively to weaker labor-market data.

Subscribe to Markets with Megan for quick, straightforward analysis of the economic data moving markets:

www.marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #Economy #Investing #MarketUpdate

https://youtu.be/NxVCfTmjACQ

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The Fed is getting mixed signals.

This week’s economic data showed a cooling labor market, stubborn inflation, and renewed price pressures in manufacturing, all while the odds of an October rate hike have fallen sharply.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest JOLTS report, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing data, and what they could mean for the Fed’s next move.

Could the Fed hold off until December? And what should investors be watching in tomorrow’s September jobs report?

Subscribe to Markets with Megan for quick, straightforward analysis of the economic data moving markets.

www.marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #JobsReport #Economy #Investing #StockMarket #MarketUpdate

https://youtu.be/dcOHaF7NhEM

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

AI-related capital spending continues to support the U.S. economy, and the latest durable goods report reveals surprising strength beneath the headline numbers. But could stronger economic growth give the Federal Reserve another reason to raise interest rates?

In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman reviews August's durable goods orders, the surge in business investment, and what the latest economic data could mean for third-quarter GDP, inflation and the Fed's October meeting.

- Why aircraft orders weighed on the headline durable goods report.
- How underlying orders rose more than 1% in August and 14.8% year over year.
- The role of AI-related investment in machinery, computers, metals and electrical equipment.
- Why the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is tracking third-quarter growth above 5%.
- What strong economic data could mean for interest rates, inflation and financial markets.

Can the AI investment boom continue supporting economic growth without reigniting inflation?

Subscribe to Markets with Megan for timely insights into the economic data moving financial markets.

Visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #AIInvesting #GDP #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #DurableGoods #CapitalSpending

 https://youtu.be/mQRDi4jzr38

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Retail sales just flipped the script: after a weak July, August comes in with a sharp rebound, and the details matter if you care about where the U.S. economy is headed. We walk through the August retail sales report and why a 1.2% monthly gain grabs market attention, especially with gasoline station sales up 3.1% and “core” spending measures also showing strength. If you’ve been wondering whether the consumer is finally cracking, this data argues the spending story is not over yet. 

We dig into the category-level moves that help explain the jump, including motor vehicles, furniture, electronics, health and personal care, internet shopping, and eating and drinking places. We also talk about why e-commerce surged and how Amazon Prime Day being pulled forward can make one month look soft and the next month look strong. It’s a good reminder that promotions and timing can distort short-term readings, even when underlying consumer demand is steady. 

Then we hit the key caveat: retail sales are reported in nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted terms. That makes it hard to separate true increases in spending from higher prices, especially in categories impacted by inflation and supply chain disruptions. We close with what we’re watching as the Fed meets, and why the press conference can change the market’s interpretation of today’s data. Subscribe, share the show, and leave a review, then tell us: does this report signal real strength or just inflation in disguise?

https://youtu.be/vcOZXjWQhKM

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation came in hotter than expected, and the latest CPI report may have strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike next week.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman dissects the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, hotter core CPI, and continued pressure on American households. She also explains why markets are rallying even as the odds of a Fed hike rise, and what investors should be watching heading into next week’s Fed meeting.

Topics include:
• The latest CPI and core inflation numbers
• Why energy prices remain a major inflation driver
• Rising costs for consumers and declining real wages
• Why Fed rate hike odds have jumped
• Why stocks are rising despite higher rate expectations
• What to watch at next week’s Fed meeting

Subscribe for timely market insights and economic analysis from Markets with Megan.

Learn more at MarketsWithMegan.fm.

#Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #FedRateHike #InterestRates #StockMarket #MarketsWithMegan #MarketUpdate #Investing #Economy

https://youtu.be/SG9-XZB2xv8

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation came in as expected. The problem? “As expected” is still too hot. The latest Producer Price Index showed inflation pressures continuing to build:

📈 Headline PPI: +5.4% year over year
📈 PPI excluding food, energy and trade: +4.7%
✈️ Airline prices: nearly +20% year over year
⚖️ Legal services: about +8%
🏥 Hospital inpatient care: +4.3%

Those details matter because several feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, and they’re not giving policymakers much reason to feel comfortable.

Markets are taking notice. The probability of a rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting has climbed to 72%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 4.9% and closer to the 5% level.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down what today’s PPI report tells us about inflation, interest rates, and what investors should be watching when CPI arrives tomorrow.

🎧 Watch the latest Markets with Megan and get a complete history of all episodes at MarketsWithMegan.fm.

#MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #PPI #Investing #Markets

https://youtu.be/TWB0CvQUt1I

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The August jobs report landed well above expectations, and it's the last one the Fed will see before its September meeting. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month against a forecast of just 55,000, with construction, AI-related hiring, and government payrolls all contributing. Megan Horneman breaks down what a beat this size means for interest rate policy.

Wages grew three-tenths of a percent for the month, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the labor force added more than half a million workers. Markets are already reacting: equities slipped as traders priced in a 62% chance the Fed raises rates in September.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why 162,000 new jobs was nearly triple what economists expected
- Where the job growth came from: construction, AI-related hiring, and government
- What rising wages and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate signal
- Why markets are now pricing in a 62% chance of a September rate hike
- How short- and long-term Treasury yields are reacting differently to the report

Subscribe for a new episode every week.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateHike #Economy #StockMarket #Investing #WageGrowth #Unemployment #MarketsWithMegan

https://youtu.be/v-Am2JambtE

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The ISM Services Index ticked up in August, and the report's prices paid component jumped to its highest level since August 2022, back when the economy was still digging out of the post-pandemic inflation spike. Megan breaks down what's behind the rise in service sector activity and why the pricing data is worth watching heading into the Fed's next move.


In this episode, Megan covers:
🔹 Why the ISM Services Index rose in August and what's driving the strength
🔹 The prices paid component's jump to its highest level since August 2022
🔹 Business activity and new orders climbing to their highest levels in over a year
🔹 How Fed speech on holding rates steady moved the equity markets today
🔹 Why tomorrow's jobs report is the last piece of data before the Fed's rate decision

If you're trying to make sense of what these numbers mean for your own portfolio and retirement planning, take five minutes to listen in. 

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#ISMServices #ServiceSectorInflation #FederalReserve #JobsReport #InterestRates #Inflation #MarketsWithMegan #Economy #FedDecision #StockMarket

https://youtu.be/Sk63JVHeZ0g

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...