The labor market just surprised investors and it may change the Federal Reserve narrative.

In today’s episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the delayed January Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed the U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs, beating expectations and signaling more resilience than many anticipated.

Despite prior concerns about weakening job openings and rising layoffs, this report revealed encouraging signs:

📈 Payroll growth beat forecasts

⬇️ Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%

👷 Temporary workers increased for the third straight month — often a leading indicator of hiring strength

⏱️ Average workweek rose, another positive signal

🏥 Gains in private education, health services, and professional/business services

Although annual revisions showed fewer jobs were created last year than previously reported, the weakness appears to be further behind us. The data suggests the labor market may be stabilizing — not deteriorating.

For the Federal Reserve, this likely means no rush to cut interest rates. A resilient jobs market gives policymakers room to stay patient, especially ahead of upcoming inflation data.

Markets reacted sharply rallying initially before reversing, highlighting just how sensitive investors remain to labor and inflation signals in early 2026.

📊 Is the labor market finding a bottom?
📉 Will the Fed stay on hold longer than markets expect?
📈 And what does this mean for equities going forward?

Megan walks through what investors should watch next.

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#MarketsWithMegan #JobsReport #NonFarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #InterestRates #StockMarket #EconomicData #InflationWatch #MarketVolatility #Investing

https://youtu.be/6VmZ616ynhE

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets are off to a volatile and unstable start in 2026 —but why?

In today’s Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman walks through the six key forces driving market volatility, explaining how economic data, policy uncertainty, and shifting investor behavior are colliding across asset classes.

What 6 forces are shaking the markets?

1️⃣ A weakening labor market
Job openings have fallen to their lowest level since 2020, while January layoffs surged nearly 120% year over year, raising concerns that labor market cracks are widening.

2️⃣ Rising AI capital expenditures pressuring big tech
Heavy investment in AI by major hyperscalers has increased scrutiny around returns on capital, creating volatility in once-dominant tech stocks.

3️⃣ A rotation away from mega-cap leadership
Investors are moving toward small- and mid-cap stocks, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperforming the market-cap-weighted index — contributing to choppy market action.

4️⃣ Seasonality and midterm election uncertainty
February is historically one of the weakest months for the S&P 500, and midterm election years tend to bring deeper drawdowns and heightened volatility.

5️⃣ Federal Reserve leadership and balance-sheet concerns
Markets are reacting to uncertainty around the Fed’s future direction, particularly fears of aggressive balance-sheet reduction and its impact on liquidity and credit markets.

6️⃣ A slowing, debt-strained consumer
Disappointing December retail sales, slowing discretionary spending, and rising delinquencies across credit cards, auto loans, and student debt are signaling pressure on consumer-driven growth.

📉 With volatility hitting equities, commodities, and Bitcoin, Megan explains what these forces mean for economic growth, market leadership, and investor positioning in the months ahead.

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#MarketsWithMegan #MarketVolatility #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #LaborMarket #ConsumerSpending #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Investing #RecessionWatch #ElectionYear #AIStocks

https://youtu.be/KpX4CniuOJE

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets reacted negatively to today’s economic data — and the labor market was at the center of the concern.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest U.S. labor market data, including the JOLTS report, Challenger job cuts, and weekly jobless claims, and explains why markets didn’t like what they saw.

Job openings fell to 6.5 million, the lowest level since September 2020, while the number of unemployed Americans climbed to 7.5 million. For the first time since the post-pandemic recovery began, there are now more unemployed workers than available job openings — a key signal that labor market tightness has fully reversed.

Megan also discusses why the quits rate holding at 2% may help ease wage pressures, even as broader labor conditions soften. Meanwhile, the Challenger Gray & Christmas report showed January layoffs surged 118% year-over-year, marking the worst January for job cuts since 2009. Although a large portion of layoffs came from a handful of major companies, hiring intentions fell to their lowest level on record.

Weekly jobless claims also jumped to an eight-week high, adding to investor unease — though severe weather disruptions may have played a role.

📉 With weakening labor data, rising layoffs, and declining risk assets like Bitcoin and precious metals, Megan explains what this shift in employment trends could mean for markets, wages, inflation, and the upcoming jobs report.

🎧 Subscribe to Markets with Megan for daily insights on economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and market implications.

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#MarketsWithMegan #LaborMarket #JobsReport #JOLTS #JoblessClaims #Layoffs #EconomicData #RecessionWatch #FedPolicy #MarketVolatility #Inflation #Investing #stockmarket 

https://youtu.be/pGbDBibSG1s

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Some encouraging economic data gave markets something to digest today — even as volatility stayed front and center.

In this episode of Markets with Megan, Verdence CIO Megan Horneman breaks down the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for both manufacturing and services, highlighting a surprising jump in manufacturing activity. January marked the largest monthly increase since June 2020, pushing manufacturing back into expansion territory for only the third time in three years.

Megan walks through what’s driving the improvement, including a surge in new orders, easing supply pressures, and improving, though still fragile, employment conditions. On the services side, activity remained firmly in expansion for the 19th consecutive month, with strength in business activity and delivery times.

However, rising prices paid in both manufacturing and services signal that inflation risks can’t be ignored, and investors should stay cautious as economic momentum builds.

📊 What does this data mean for markets, inflation, and the economic outlook ahead? Watch now.

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#MarketsWithMegan #EconomicData #PMI #Manufacturing #ServicesSector #MarketVolatility #InflationWatch #FedPolicy #EconomicOutlook #Investing #StockMarket

https://youtu.be/1YhAO26XO1w

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

January is often seen as a roadmap for the rest of the year — and the markets may already be sending signals for 2026. In today’s episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down how stocks, bonds, commodities, and the economy performed in January and what investors should take away from it.

We dive into the historical “January Effect” and why a positive January has historically led to positive full-year returns for the S&P 500. Megan also explores what’s happening beneath the surface of the economy, including slowing job creation, resilient consumer spending, mixed inflation data, and rising service-sector prices.

This episode covers key market trends investors should be watching:
• What January market performance says about the rest of 2026
• Labor market shifts and why unemployment is ticking lower
• Inflation progress — and where it’s still sticky
• Why international markets outperformed U.S. stocks
• Small-cap stocks beating large caps
• Rising yields and the Fed’s hawkish tone
• Energy prices surging amid geopolitical tension
• Gold and silver volatility after a historic start to the year

Whether you’re a long-term investor or just trying to make sense of market volatility, this episode helps cut through the headlines and focus on what actually matters.

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#MarketsWithMegan #JanuaryEffect #StockMarket2026 #MarketOutlook #EconomicData #InvestingInsights #Inflation #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Gold #EnergyMarkets #InvestorEducation

https://youtu.be/lla7skf933s

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

No fireworks at the Fed, but the subtext speaks volumes. We break down why the Committee kept rates unchanged, what the two dovish dissents tell us, and how Powell’s hawkish tone reframed the path for growth, inflation, and any hope for early rate cuts. From the official statement to the press conference, we translate the signals: employment risks down, inflation still elevated, and an economy described as “on a firm footing.”

We dig into the moving parts behind the macro narrative. Jobs look softer on the surface, but shifts in immigration and labor force participation point to stabilization rather than a slide. Housing remains the weak link as higher mortgage rates bite, even as broader activity holds up. On tariffs, Powell framed the price impact as a one-time adjustment, not a new inflation engine, implying disinflation can continue once those effects fade. That said, the door to cuts stays shut until the data make the case, and the “meeting-by-meeting” mantra remains the guide.

Markets got the message. Yields nudged higher as traders pushed out expectations to one or two cuts later in the year, with equities largely steady. We share why strong first-quarter spending, supported by tax refunds, could keep growth resilient and complicate the disinflation story, raising the odds of occasional inflation scares. Our take: focus on quality balance sheets, resilient cash flows, and rate sensitivity while watching labor, housing, and services inflation for the next catalyst.

If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, hit the alert, and share it with someone tracking the Fed. Leave a quick review to tell us where you think rates go next.

https://youtu.be/fYOnpVWxF5U

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

A jolt in consumer sentiment just reset the market’s mood. We break down why confidence slid to its lowest level since 2014, what the expectations index is signaling about the next six months, and how the “jobs plentiful vs hard to get” gauge can foreshadow shifts in hiring, wages, and spending. Rather than noise, these readings offer a practical map for understanding where demand, margins, and equity leadership might go next.

We start with the headline drop, then unpack the internals: expectations falling faster than current conditions, a classic lead on household behavior. From there, we connect the labor signal to personal spending, discussing how consumers typically cut big-ticket items first and then trade down across categories. You’ll hear how retailers and consumer brands might respond with promotions, how margin compression can creep in, and why quality balance sheets become more attractive when sentiment cracks. We also explore the market’s risk-off tilt and what that says about cyclicals, defensives, and rate-sensitive assets as volatility picks up.

With the Federal Reserve set to meet, we outline what a hold on rates could mean for Q1 positioning, and the key phrases to listen for that might influence the path of cuts and growth expectations. To help you navigate the next few weeks, we share three signposts to watch: whether confidence weakens again, how the jobs-plentiful ratio tracks with openings and claims, and what companies reveal about conversions and promotions. Subscribe for more daily market context, share this briefing with a friend who tracks macro signals, and leave a quick review to tell us what indicators you want us to cover next.

https://youtu.be/fUf8zYX5PY8

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets rarely move on one number, and this week offered a full mosaic. We break down a stronger third estimate for Q3 GDP, why equipment and intellectual property investment matter more than headlines suggest, and how net exports turned from a drag into a modest lift. Then we pivot to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—core PCE at 2.7 percent year over year—where progress is real but the finish line isn’t crossed. That sets the policy backdrop for a quarter that might still print above 5 percent growth, testing the market’s assumptions on timing and depth of rate cuts.

From the consumer’s seat, the signals are mixed but intriguing. Personal spending is rising faster than income, pushing the savings rate near 3.5 percent, a low not seen since late 2022. Yet sentiment just hit a five‑month high, with optimism broadening across income tiers and political lines. Potentially larger tax refunds could provide a near-term cushion for household budgets, while one-year inflation expectations ticked down to 4 percent—better, but still too hot for comfort. We connect these dots to corporate margins, pricing power, and how management teams might guide with earnings underway.

Through it all, geopolitical noise and earnings season create a volatile backdrop where positioning matters. We share what we’re watching next: services inflation versus wage growth, capex tied to AI and automation, and the tug-of-war between resilient demand and tight savings. If growth stays strong while inflation cools slowly, the Fed will want more proof before easing, keeping financial conditions in focus. Tune in for a clear read on the data and a practical map for the weeks ahead. If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, share it with a friend, and leave a quick review—what’s your top data point to watch next?

https://youtu.be/_LR4fz38HaM

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets don’t need a heavy data week to make big moves. We open with a sharp risk-off swing sparked by a jump in Japan’s 10-year yield to heights not seen since 1999, then trace how that shock rippled through Treasuries, equity multiples, and the dollar. From there, we unpack why long-duration growth names led the slide, why small caps fell less, and how a thin economic calendar let geopolitics take the wheel.

Tariff talk and tense U.S.–Europe rhetoric around Greenland put sentiment on edge, but the narrative shifted when force was taken off the table, fueling a fast relief rally. We break down the split in hedges—gold pushing to new highs while Bitcoin sank—and explain what that contrast says about liquidity preferences and real yield expectations when macro risk rises. Along the way, we revisit the mechanics of duration in both bonds and equities, and how higher discount rates directly pressure high multiple stocks even without an earnings miss.

Looking ahead, we map the catalysts that matter: a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs that could redefine trade tools, midterm election dynamics that typically lift volatility, and a coming recommendation for the next Federal Reserve Chair that will signal policy continuity or change. With valuations still pricing a near-perfect backdrop, we argue for stress testing portfolios against higher global yields, a choppier dollar, and headline risk that hits specific sectors first. Expect more twists, prepare for whiplash, and focus on balance sheets with pricing power and durable free cash flow.

If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, share it with a friend, and leave a quick review to tell us what market risk you’re watching next.

https://youtu.be/5Hr25FObNK4

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Headlines say inflation is coming down — but is it really?

Verdence CIO Megan Horneman challenges the popular inflation narrative by breaking down the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports.

While headline inflation numbers appear to show improvement, core inflation remains above the Fed’s target, and the areas consumers feel most — food, housing, utilities, healthcare, and services — continue to rise sharply. Understand why inflation is becoming disguised in the data, especially within sticky service-sector prices the Federal Reserve cannot easily control.

The episode also gets into consumer spending, highlighting why strong retail sales don’t necessarily signal economic strength. With spending data not adjusted for inflation, rising sales may actually point to persistent price pressure, especially in categories like autos, gas, building materials, restaurants, and clothing — many of which are also vulnerable to tariff-driven cost increases.

📊 Learn why
➡️ Why CPI and PPI data may be understating inflation risks
➡️ How services inflation is driving everyday cost pressures
➡️ Why food, housing, healthcare, and utilities remain elevated
➡️ The disconnect between weak consumer confidence and strong spending
➡️ Why inflation-adjusted data matters more than headlines
➡️ The risk of inflation re-accelerating in 2026
➡️ What this means for Fed policy and markets

Markets have been under pressure recently as investors begin to question whether inflation is truly under control, and whether the Fed is paying close enough attention to the most persistent price pressures in the economy.

🎧 Listen to the full Markets with Megan podcast archive:
👉 https://marketswithmegan.fm

🔔 Subscribe, hit the bell, and stay informed as we cut through the noise and focus on what the economic data actually means for markets and investors.

#MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #CPI #PPI #FederalReserve #ConsumerSpending #RetailSales #EconomicData #StickyInflation #Markets #Investing #MacroEconomics #wealthmanagement 

https://youtu.be/RAiK_pfpgi0

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...