The September jobs report finally arrived after weeks of private data during the U.S. government shutdown, and it delivered a meaningful surprise. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, far above expectations, even as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021. In this episode of Markets with Megan, we break down what the mixed labor picture means for the Federal Reserve, inflation, and market momentum heading into the December FOMC meeting.

Find out...
• Where job gains were concentrated (health care, leisure & hospitality)
• Which sectors showed weakness (professional services, temporary help, manufacturing)
• Why female labor-force participation is rising
• How the Fed may interpret this report as shutdown-delayed data starts flooding in
• Why tariff-driven inflation effects are still unknown
• How markets are reacting — including the impact of NVIDIA’s strong earnings

With government data finally restarting, this report sets the stage for a busy stretch of economic releases and a pivotal Fed decision.

📈 Listen in for a clear, calm breakdown of what today’s numbers actually mean for investors.

👉 Catch past episodes at MarketsWithMegan.fm
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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Fear has a way of compressing lofty stories into hard numbers, and that’s exactly what’s playing out across U.S. markets. We open with a clean read on why volatility jumped to levels last seen around April’s tariff shock, then connect the dots between stretched forward P/Es, softening consumer trends, and a Federal Reserve that can’t quite agree on timing for rate cuts. It’s a live stress test of equity risk premia, and the results aren’t evenly distributed.

We break down the five forces pushing risk lower: valuations near late-1990s territory, big tech’s need to prove that AI spend will convert to durable earnings, fresh signs of a consumer slowdown, split Fed rhetoric dragging cut odds down, and a sharp risk-off move that’s cracking momentum trades from AI leaders to Bitcoin. Along the way, we assess where the damage is showing up first—Nasdaq, small caps, and mid-cap growth—while noting how Treasuries and gold are absorbing flight-to-quality flows. The takeaway: when the cost of capital is uncertain and growth cools, the market asks harder questions about price and payoff.

We also set the near-term roadmap. Nvidia’s earnings will act as a proxy for AI demand, supply constraints, and margin resilience, while the September jobs report should reset the labor and inflation narrative that anchors rate expectations. If you’re navigating this tape, we share how to think about quality balance sheets, cash flow durability, and position sizing when volatility rises and correlations bite. Subscribe to stay ahead of the data, share this with a friend who’s watching the VIX, and leave a quick review to tell us where you see the next inflection.

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Washington is back open, and the market’s attention snaps from headlines to hard numbers. We walk through what the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown historically means for the dollar, the S&P 500, and growth, then test those patterns against today’s mixed signals. You’ll hear why equities often hold up during political dysfunction, how reopenings can spark a modest relief bid, and where this cycle may differ after a 2% S&P climb during the closure.

From there, we focus on the data gap and the timing shock that shutdowns create. Personal spending can dip when federal workers miss paychecks, then rebound with back pay, which muddies month‑to‑month readings without changing the broader trend. With agencies back online, the calendar matters again: the September jobs report slated for Thursday the 20th becomes the hinge for labor momentum, wage growth, and inflation pressures. We lay out what a soft payroll print versus a hot wage surprise could mean for risk sentiment, yields, and the U.S. dollar.

Policy takes center stage as we unpack shifting odds for a December rate cut. Before the closure, markets priced near‑certainty; after a run of mixed private data, those odds slid toward 40%. We argue the sensible path is a Fed hold while officials wait for cleaner evidence, preserving optionality and avoiding an unnecessary easing that could reignite inflation. For portfolios, that tilt favors quality equities with durable cash flows, selective duration in fixed income with an eye on labor softness, and a pragmatic view on the dollar that tracks the growth‑inflation mix.

Subscribe, share with a friend who watches the data tape, and tell us: should the Fed hold or cut at the next meeting? Your take helps shape where we go next.

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The October ISM Services index is back in expansion territory—coming in above 50—with six out of ten categories rising and new orders leading the charge (likely boosted by data-center demand in the commentary). Business activity jumped, employment is still in contraction but improved, and we’re not seeing shrinking headcount alongside a backlog—hinting at some labor-market equilibrium.

The catch: prices paid just moved to their highest level since October 2022. That’s the inflation channel the Fed watches closely. With ADP showing a modest October improvement and the labor market not collapsing, elevated input costs could feed into CPI/PCE once those reports finally print after the record-long government shutdown.

In this episode:

• ISM Services pops back above 50 (expansion)
• New orders strength—data-center demand in the mix
• Employment still soft, but stabilizing
• Prices paid spike—potential inflation bleed-through
• What this combo could mean for the Fed’s next steps

Subscribe, tap the bell, and share. For past episodes and more, visit marketswithmegan.fm.

https://youtu.be/xvqGfsWRwAA

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

We unpack October’s ADP payroll report during the record government shutdown and parse where hiring is actually happening. Large firms added jobs while small and mid-sized businesses shed workers, with most gains tied to services and AI-driven spending.

• October ADP report shows 42,000 private payroll gain
• Caution that one month does not set a trend
• Hiring concentrated in large employers, 500 plus
• Small businesses shed jobs in five of the last six months
• Service-producing sectors lead gains, AI spend likely a factor
• Limited official data due to the shutdown constrains visibility
• Brief wrap and where to find past episodes

If you like this podcast, please subscribe. For more go to MarketsWithMegan.FM

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Factories are feeling the squeeze, but one surprising shift may be a quiet win for anyone watching inflation. We dig into October’s ISM manufacturing report at a time when the government shutdown has muted official data, and we pull out the signals that matter: a weaker headline driven by softness in production and inventories, a prices paid index that fell to its lowest level of the year, and export orders that show a pulse even as supply frictions re-emerge.

We talk through what a drop in input costs could mean for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, and why the latest data doesn’t show tariffs driving a new wave of cost pressure. At the same time, we highlight a rise in backlogs and longer delivery times, the kinds of stress points we watched closely during the pandemic. Are these the first hints of renewed bottlenecks, or just monthly noise that will fade as logistics normalize? We explain how to read these components together so you can separate signal from static in a noisy market.

With production sagging, inventories lean, and exports firmer, the path ahead could split: either a cautious few months as managers stay defensive, or a restock bounce if orders stabilize. We map the indicators that will decide which path wins out, from follow-through in prices paid to confirmation in regional surveys and earnings commentary. If you want a clear, practical take on what the ISM is saying about growth, inflation, and risk, this breakdown gives you the context you need to stay ahead of the tape.

Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe, hit the alert, and share it with a friend who follows the economy. Then tell us: do you read the ISM as a soft patch or the start of a turn?

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The Federal Reserve finally cut rates but their tone shocked Wall Street. Megan Horneman breaks down what the Fed really said, why markets might be too confident about more cuts, and what this means for inflation and investors heading into year-end 2025.

With the government still shut down and data in short supply, this surprise twist from the Fed could change everything.

#MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #StockMarket #Investing #Economy2025 #MarketUpdate #FedRateCut #GovernmentShutdown

https://youtu.be/5u6RVUpikjI

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets don’t pause just because official data does. With the government shutdown stretching on, we turn to the signals still flashing: ISM surveys, regional Fed reports, and futures pricing that point to a tricky mix of sticky services inflation and a softening job market. We share what we’re seeing behind the headlines, why services matter more than ever for your wallet, and how prices paid in both services and manufacturing complicate the path back to the Fed’s 2 percent target.

We walk through the latest reads from ISM Services at 69.4 on prices paid and ISM Manufacturing at 61.9, unpacking what those levels have historically meant for inflation. Then we compare the New York Fed Empire and Philadelphia Fed surveys, where input costs push higher while employment indicators sag. That tension is shaping rate expectations: markets now lean toward cuts at the late October and December meetings, betting the Fed will prioritize labor stability even as inflation lingers.

The heart of the conversation is expectations. When consumers believe prices will be higher in a few months, they buy early, demand tightens, and inflation gets a second wind. We talk about how the Fed’s tone can cool that loop without over-tightening growth, and why guidance about 2026 could anchor medium-term inflation expectations. If you’re watching interest rates, planning budgets, or managing risk, these signals help you navigate a noisy moment with clearer context.

Subscribe for more practical market breakdowns, share this episode with someone who tracks the Fed, and leave a quick review to tell us what you want decoded next.

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

When official data goes dark, the market turns to the signals still shining. We dig into the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading and find a story of two Americas: current conditions ticking up after September’s rate cut, and expectations sliding to a five‑month low. That split matters. 

Sentiment sits at 55, future finances are viewed as the weakest since 2011, and 12‑month inflation expectations hold at 4.6%. These levels keep pressure on the Fed to proceed with caution.

We walk through why expectations can drive the real economy, not just the headlines. When households anticipate higher inflation and weaker income growth, they change behavior. They are delaying large purchases, demanding higher wages, and cutting discretionary spend. Those choices ripple into corporate pricing, margins, and hiring plans. With the government shutdown restricting official releases, private surveys like this one become essential to policy and portfolio decisions. 

The historical track record of the U of Michigan survey’s one‑year inflation outlook adds weight: elevated expectations risk becoming sticky if not addressed by clear, credible policy.

From a policy perspective, moving too aggressively could entrench inflation psychology; holding too tight could squeeze a consumer already leaning cautious. 

We share how we’re reading the Fed’s October debate, the market signals to watch next, and practical considerations for savers, borrowers, and operators. If you’re trying to navigate rate risk, manage cash flow, or understand what the consumer may do next, this breakdown offers a grounded, data‑driven take you can use today.

Enjoyed the analysis? Follow, subscribe, and share with a friend. Drop your view on the next Fed move—pause or push—and leave a quick review to help more listeners find the show.

https://youtu.be/8lAg-uzDvIM

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets are hitting record highs — but is it the Fed’s doing? Megan Horneman breaks down what’s really driving the rally, how the ongoing government shutdown could impact data and investor sentiment, and what the latest Fed minutes hint about the path into year-end 2025.

👉 Don’t miss Megan’s take on what could make or break the next market move.

For a history go to http://MarketsWithMegan.FM

#MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #StockMarketNews #GovernmentShutdown #EconomicUpdate #FedMinutes #InterestRates #Investing2025 #MarketTrends #FinancialInsights

https://youtu.be/Bmma9nSD_w8

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...