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Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election

EU officially doesn't recognise the results, but it took a while (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/19/belarus-crisis-eu-leaders-emergency-talks-lukashenko-protests). There's talk of sanctions but nothing specific yet

On the delay from a Politico Newsletter:

ANOTHER STATEMENT: The EU threatened sanctions earlier this week, but today’s videoconference is more about delivering a “quick reaction,” a senior EU diplomat told Jacopo Barigazzi. A decision very likely won’t come until the foreign ministers meet in person August 27-28 in Berlin, the diplomat said, for an informal gathering known as a “Gymnich.” And since EU High Representative Josep Borrell is technically on holiday away from Brussels, no press conference is expected at the end of today’s meeting — just a readout.

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/17/belarus-why-this-time-is-not-different/

Call for solidarity from worker organisations: https://progressive.international/wire/2020-08-19-an-urgent-call-for-solidarity-with-the-workers-and-people-of-belarus/en

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/state-controlled-firms-join-strike-belarus-president-200818113145275.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/belarus-opposition-calls-for-general-strike-after-biggest-protests-yet

Including the state TV station - https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-television-broadcasts-empty-studio-as-state-media-joins-general-strike/a-54593079?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

For a very questionable graph: https://www.rferl.org/a/years-of-lukashenka-and-counting/30769566.html

But yes he's been in office a long time and it would not be reasonable to say he's been winning fair elections for a long time.

The response from the Lukashenka side to the possibility of a real challenger is not surprising - imprisoned candidates, banned rallies, etc (https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/07/ahead-of-the-presidential-elections-in-belarus/)

From Maxim Rust, Polish political science researcher:

"The elections will be held on August 9th. Nobody is sure about how they will unfold or how the authorities will react to the planned mass protests in their aftermath. One thing is certain – regardless of the election results, Belarusian society is not what it was just a few months ago. "

That was pretty spot on

"Opposition leader" forced to leave for safety

Internet cutoff

Beatings and torture of those arrested, general harsh approach to protesters

Journalists being rounded up specifically