By Ciarán & Hugh
The podcast currently has 190 episodes available.
We will have a new project at https://dreambuddies.fireside.fm/ if you want to hear what we're up to (forthnightly-ish). There will be European politics but it's not the main focus.
And there's still a discord here
This week we wildly speculate on future events as we're going on hiatus while Ciarán figures out parenting
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## Subsequently in Europe
Danish minority are running in the next parliament elections (thanks for the heads up Maximilian) - I predict a very close early election due to government breakdown followed by the Danish Schleswig Party party entering a coalition with the deciding vote.
I think there'll just be a terrible deal which the UK will pretend is very good. They're kicking up a fuss about it now as a distraction because the migrant panic didn't work long enough
Is no buneo...
There are two topics today whoop whoop! We talk about #golfgate in Ireland which gets us annoyed (as Irish people) and we revisit the Serbian elections and where we are with all that Vučić stuff.
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election
EU officially doesn't recognise the results, but it took a while (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/19/belarus-crisis-eu-leaders-emergency-talks-lukashenko-protests). There's talk of sanctions but nothing specific yet
On the delay from a Politico Newsletter:
ANOTHER STATEMENT: The EU threatened sanctions earlier this week, but today’s videoconference is more about delivering a “quick reaction,” a senior EU diplomat told Jacopo Barigazzi. A decision very likely won’t come until the foreign ministers meet in person August 27-28 in Berlin, the diplomat said, for an informal gathering known as a “Gymnich.” And since EU High Representative Josep Borrell is technically on holiday away from Brussels, no press conference is expected at the end of today’s meeting — just a readout.
https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/17/belarus-why-this-time-is-not-different/
Call for solidarity from worker organisations: https://progressive.international/wire/2020-08-19-an-urgent-call-for-solidarity-with-the-workers-and-people-of-belarus/en
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/state-controlled-firms-join-strike-belarus-president-200818113145275.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/belarus-opposition-calls-for-general-strike-after-biggest-protests-yet
Including the state TV station - https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-television-broadcasts-empty-studio-as-state-media-joins-general-strike/a-54593079?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
For a very questionable graph: https://www.rferl.org/a/years-of-lukashenka-and-counting/30769566.html
But yes he's been in office a long time and it would not be reasonable to say he's been winning fair elections for a long time.
The response from the Lukashenka side to the possibility of a real challenger is not surprising - imprisoned candidates, banned rallies, etc (https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/07/ahead-of-the-presidential-elections-in-belarus/)
From Maxim Rust, Polish political science researcher:
"The elections will be held on August 9th. Nobody is sure about how they will unfold or how the authorities will react to the planned mass protests in their aftermath. One thing is certain – regardless of the election results, Belarusian society is not what it was just a few months ago. "
That was pretty spot on
"Opposition leader" forced to leave for safety
Internet cutoff
Beatings and torture of those arrested, general harsh approach to protesters
Journalists being rounded up specifically
On today's episode, Hugh tries to convince Ciarán that the new EU budget isn't terrible. It goes about as well as expected.
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-presidential-election-anti-semitism/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_North_Macedonian_parliamentary_election
REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA
Zaev had staked his premiership on a pro-EU policy, and pushed through an unpopular addition of the word “North” to the country’s name in order to settle a dispute with Greece that was preventing Skopje from applying for EU membership. His political position was therefore badly undercut by the failure to start the accession process last fall. The election will basically serve as a referendum on Zaev’s approach, and he’ll be hoping voters return him to office with a mandate to keep pursuing EU membership. North Macedonia’s NATO accession should be a done deal by then (only Spain has yet to ratify it and that’s because Madrid’s political situation is a mess, not because of anything to do with North Macedonia) and Zaev is hoping the excitement over that development will give him a boost.
https://www.dw.com/en/north-macedonia-holds-first-election-since-changing-its-name/a-54172417?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
No election left behind!!! Tonight we talk the Croatian 2020 parliamentary elections and how maybe it should've been postponed
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
## Also Happening: GDPR turns two
Yes! Well.. not entirely the cookies thing, but yes the cookies thing. Most people interact with this by seeing those annoying popups being like "I consent to all cookies, please leave me alone", but what if I told you that was actually a good thing?
The general idea was to do what it says in the name "General Data Protection Regulation", so a regulation what was uniform across the EU and protected data. Cool so to keep data on someone via an EU state basically you now (as of 2018):
This was actually a big deal considering how there's usually more concessions in EU legalisation for special interests - e.g. due to a major industry in a country or because David Cameron didn't want us to have nice things. But this was a pretty broad update to the 1990s data protection laws that really did seem planned to give some citizen level control over their data.
This was of course in the wake of Edward Snowden, Cambridge Analytica and that time Marc Zuckerberg gave a really crappy testimony to the EU (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/may/22/five-things-we-learned-from-mark-zuckerbergs-european-parliament-appearance). So there was actually consensus that this was a good idea. It passed the council with only Austria complaining it wasn't strict enough and the parliament almost unanimously (though some who negotiated noted it was only after much convincing in negotiations http://old.guengl.eu/news/article/gue-ngl-news/gdpr-a-milestone-for-data-privacy-in-the-eu)
There were even fines built into it - up to €20m/4% of global turnover (whichever is bigger) if non-compliance continued.
Sort of! You've seen those cookies pop-ups right? See the EU Commission's very neutral infographic "the fabric of a success story" (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/fs_20_1172). Also (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1163)
"Between May 2018 and November 2019, 22 EU/EEA data protection authorities issued 785 fines."
Google and Facebook are among those (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-facebook-hit-with-serious-gdpr-complaints-others-will-be-soon/), but in practice not much has changed
"The GDPR allowed for coronavirus tracing apps to be developed, all while respecting personal data protection as a fundamental right. "
EU countries spend a lot more on data protection officers than they used to (42% increase in staff and 49% in budget for all national data protection authorities)
They love to point out how nowhere else has as comprehensive a set of rules
"Citizens are more empowered and aware of their rights" - 69% (nice) of people are aware of GDPR... which seems like a pretty loaded stat but sure.
There's been some issues:
Cross border complaints have worked only okay: "Between 25 May 2018 and 31 December 2019, 141 draft decisions were submitted through the ‘one-stop-shop', 79 of which resulted in final decisions."
In Romania Dragnea (of in prison for corruption fame) tried to use their data protection office to demand sources from journalists (https://euobserver.com/justice/143356)
Probably the main issue.. which should have been apparent from the start was that tech firms tend to have EU bases in countries like say, Ireland or Luxembourg... who wouldn't have the cash for a big GDPR complaints processing centre. So there are big backlogs (https://www.politico.eu/article/we-have-a-huge-problem-european-regulator-despairs-over-lack-of-enforcement/)
For instance the Irish regulator is basically the centre for big cases against Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Twitter... so their backlog is large. Plus don't forget the Irish government isn't super keen on pissing those companies off (see the apple tax case!)
Well no... The EU needs data protection rules. The alternative is worse, and the big theoretical merit of the GDPR is still there - its universal and not riddled with exemptions that favour big business massively.
Consider the contrast to the upload filter and link tax plans they had for copyright reform (https://juliareda.eu/2018/05/censorship-machines-link-tax-finish-line/). The GDPR is pretty simple in principal and is still there. Nobody is getting anywhere seriously trying to soften it. These sorts of rights are hard to take away. Yes you can argue it's not really being followed properly, but I think it's a harder task to say its bad.
People are trying to argue however that the GDPR needs fixing... and they think that should happen before any new rules such as legislating against facial recognition and other AI...
They argue that public trust in internet companies continues to drop so the GDPR isn't working, but its also too strict so should be abandoned... https://www.datainnovation.org/2019/06/the-gdpr-was-supposed-to-boost-consumer-trust-it-has-failed/
Also that "access to data" is harmed so it's bad for innovation (https://www.datainnovation.org/2019/05/the-eu-needs-to-reform-the-gdpr-to-remain-competitive-in-the-algorithmic-economy/).
The GDPR isn't the prettiest or most successful thing but its the one we've got and its far from the worst model to base future rules on emerging technology on
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
The actual programme for government: https://docs.google.com/file/d/1fVChGUMfzY1LkBPMDllxokHMnRSBU2Tk/view
Some issues which are well articulated by GP finance spokesperson Neasa Hourigan:
All of the financial modelling assumes Brexit and the economy will be totally fine, any deviation will likely be used as an excuse to backtrack on any social programs, healthcare and ding ding ding, the environment https://twitter.com/SaturdayRTE/status/1274433391916716039
The program implies there will be a 7% emission reduction will be every year compounded... but its an average which she thinks is a clear attempt to miss the target every year of the government (5yr) and claim they're going make up for it later when you re-elect them (https://www.thejournal.ie/neasa-hourigan-programme-for-government-5125103-Jun2020/)
Housing isn't well dealt with properly
The taxation stuff is probably the worst bit: "In doing so, we will focus any tax rises on those taxes which tax behaviours with negative externalities such as carbon tax, sugar tax, plastics, etc."
"medium-term roadmap detailing how Ireland will reduce the deficit and return to a broadly balanced budget."
Sounds to me like they're ruling out tax increases on companies and high earners which can only mean cuts... So how are they going to cut emissions or increase public services Eamonn Ryan has said he thinks there's a different economic consensus now but the agreement doesn't really bare that out
Podcast Hugh mentioned - https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/monumental-lies/
Support us on Patreon!
We now have a website that you can find here!
There's a discord here
WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
Feel free to send us an email at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
The podcast currently has 190 episodes available.