Introduction:

In today’s episode, we delve into three crucial economic developments shaping the global financial landscape. First, the World Trade Organization projects a 2.4% surge in global trade for 2025 driven by a rush to import ahead of U.S. tariffs and a booming AI trade sector, particularly in Asia. However, this growth is expected to sharply decline to just 0.5% in 2026 as the full impact of tariffs and a cooling economy take hold. Next, we explore billionaire investor Ray Dalio’s bold recommendation to allocate up to 15% of investment portfolios to gold, which recently surpassed $4,000 an ounce. Dalio likens today’s economic conditions to the early 1970s, emphasizing gold’s role as a critical hedge amid inflation and eroding confidence in traditional assets. Finally, we examine Carlyle Group’s proprietary data revealing a mere 17,000 jobs added in September—a stark contrast to official reports withheld due to a government shutdown—signaling potential recessionary pressures despite surprisingly strong GDP figures. Join us as we unpack these developments and their implications for investors and policymakers alike.

Content and Timestamp:

00:00:38 WTO Boosts 2025 Global Trade Forecast, Warns of 2026 Slowdown Amid Tariff Headwinds and AI Boom

00:04:52 Ray Dalio: 'Today is Like the Early 70s' – Invest in Gold Now

00:09:19 Carlyle's Analysis: Government Shutdown Masks 'Pretty Bad' September Jobs Report

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