If the fed is anticipated to be quite hawkish, then the potential for a surprise is on the dovish side.

And I think that's likely, considering no one is talking about the "long road to normal" the fed mentioned at its last meeting.

A long road is a far cry from the short cut many seem to be anticipating.

There is a particular area of the market of the market that I think presents tremendous opportunity.

Read here to learn more: https://billylobue.medium.com/its-time-to-go-in-on-the-highest-risk-10x-growth-stocks-116eee177c41

I genuinely like Wayfair's business and the products they sell, but based on their financials, I only think it's a fair price 75% lower than here.

I feel this way about many businesses, and I think there are certainly some that can continue to fall.  

However, many businesses are also incredibly well priced, and the fear around them warrants some greed from us.

Just like the good ole days, we had a day where the fed spoke and the market rallied.  

Powell said two things that were crucial: "A long road to normals" and we'll be in "a lot interest rate era" for a long time.  

This put the market at ease, as many participants, including myself, thought we may be heading back to normal quite fast.  

That appears to not be the case.. so we can all relax and assume a soft landing is in tact, for now.

Today's action was quite volatile.  

That could spell problems for the future, as the Nasdaq touches the 200DMA for the first time since the March 2020 crash.  

However, there are certainly some good names being dragged down by this pullback.  

That doesn't mean we can jump right in and call a bottom.  

We have to "nibble on the way down" on names we view as quality.

We've had a big run in energy, and if you're like me, part of that included options which expire in January.  

I've taken many of my ITM January options off the table, and that's left me with some cash.  

When I have cash, I want to smell blood before buying.  

And I smell some blood in some of my favorite stocks.  

If the 10yr rate, a flight to safety, goes from 1.35% to 1.75%, should it really have a massive impact on a company growing at 50%+?  

I don't think so, it should have a stronger effect on the other flight to safety stocks, like FAANG.  

FAANG has barely taken a hit, while the hit has been projected on the true growth companies, and I think this has been misplaced and may present an opportunity to deploy our gains as we realize them.

The craziness seems to get washed out.  

The panic selling of the Nasdaq was quickly reversed and the VIX failed to close above 20.  

Maybe we over stretched on the Fed announcement.  

Did anyone really expect that tapering meant continuing to expand the balance sheet?  

I don't think anyone is too surprised -- they'll let bonds mature and simply let their balance sheet value leave the economy.  

It seems like a pretty fair and balanced approach to the current economic situation.

Go back to yesterday's video, where we highlighted how we expected interest rates to rise and for this to effect MegaCap tech as a flight to safety position. 

In times like these, we want to achieve maximum, uncorrelated returns.  

So, we're focusing on the opportunities we previously took advantage of, and looking for the next batch.

Yesterday we saw some signs of how we believe 2022 will look, but we knew one day couldn't paint the whole picture.

Now two days in, on this second day we see some themes holding strong while others seem to have fallen apart, at least for now.

Energy is having another strong day, and we expect this to continue for the next two Qs as OPEC has adjusted their forecast for a deficit, but I expect this deficit to persist even longer given reasons cited in the video.

We also think forces that helped MegaCap tech push to high valuations won't be present as rates rise while inflation begins to cool and bonds become a more attractive flight to safety again relative to their low dividend yields and potentially maxed-out multiples.

The truth always wins, and I think we saw some glimmers of that today, but 2022 may not pan out exactly like today did.

I certainly think energy stocks will do well, and we are positioned for that.

In addition, I think bond yields will rise, and we are positioned for that as well.

But do I think Apple will go from 3T to 4T? Well, I'm not sure, even though it hit the first milestone today.

It was able to do so on the heels of low rates and a flight to safety trade.

But as rates begin to tick up, and the gap between nominal and real rates begins to become less negative, it's unlikely the same flight to safety MegaCap tech trade will bear the same power.

So the MegaCaps may have a muted 2022, while other areas of the market offering huge discounts with great, important products benefit