Biz Talk Today TV

Venezuela’s Crude Wild Card: Maria Jelescu Dreyfus Explains the Real Supply Risk

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In this episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger speaks with Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, about one of the most debated topics in America right now: affordability.

Michael unpacks his widely shared Substack argument that the official poverty line for a family of four—often cited around $32,000—no longer reflects modern reality, and that a more realistic “true cost of living” threshold can be closer to $140,000 once you account for housing, childcare, and education. They explore how inflation can slow while households still feel squeezed, why the benefits cliff distorts incentives and outcomes, and what policy changes could better match today’s economic realities.

The conversation then shifts to markets and macro: Michael critiques the Federal Reserve’s current framework, explains how rates can drive equity markets through systematic allocation and rebalancing, and outlines why near-term bond market pressure could give way to more deflationary conditions over time. (Note: the live discussion was shortened due to technical issues, but the key themes and takeaways are here.)

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #MichaelGreen, #SimplifyAssetManagement, #AffordabilityCrisis, #CostOfLiving, #PovertyLine, #BenefitsCliff, #EconomicPolicy, #WealthInequality, #Inflation, #Wages, #HousingCosts, #Childcare, #EducationCosts, #FederalReserve, #JeromePowell, #InterestRates, #BondMarket, #StockMarket, #Macro, #Investing, #PortfolioStrategy, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this short clip from The Money Path, Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) explains why a 25-basis-point Fed cut looks likely—but the decision is more complicated than “weaker jobs = cut.” He points to initial jobless claims falling to 191,000 (a 3-year low) as evidence layoffs aren’t surging, even as announced job cuts can hint at what’s coming later.

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In this episode of The Money Path, host ⁠Todd M. Schoenberger⁠ sits down with ⁠Jim Bianco⁠ of ⁠Bianco Research⁠ for a sharp breakdown of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and the growing disconnect between what markets are pricing and what the Fed is likely to deliver. With Wall Street centered on a widely expected 25-basis-point cut and softening signals like the weakest ADP print in more than two years, Bianco challenges the assumption that an aggressive cut cycle is a given—and asks whether the Fed can (or should) validate market expectations.

The conversation goes deeper into what may matter even more than the headline cut: the rising possibility of unusual dissent votes, what they signal about Fed independence, and how politics could influence the optics of decision-making. Bianco also argues that rate cuts won’t solve structural pressures such as automation-driven layoffs and a worsening affordability problem, and warns that pushing rates too low could reignite inflation and keep long-term yields elevated. They close by discussing how data disruptions and measurement challenges complicate the jobs-and-inflation picture—and why better administrative data may be the next big policy debate.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #JimBianco, #BiancoResearch, #FederalReserve, #FOMC, #RateCuts, #InterestRates, #Inflation, #JobsReport, #ADP, #JoblessClaims, #EconomicData, #MonetaryPolicy, #FedIndependence, #Dissents, #BondMarket, #TreasuryYields, #AffordabilityCrisis, #Automation, #AI, #MarketOutlook, #Investing, #WealthManagement, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this post-live episode of The Money Path, host ⁠Todd M. Schoenberger⁠ sits down with ⁠Aquiles Larrea⁠ for a wide-ranging market conversation—from today’s “lame duck” feel in equities to what could drive the next major move. Aquiles explains why investors may be overconfident in some areas while remaining overly skeptical in others, and why a recent pullback looks more like a normal (and slightly delayed) correction than a true breakdown.

They dig into the key macro catalysts ahead, including the upcoming Fed meeting, the impact of weakening private-sector employment signals, and how inflation and tariffs could pressure consumer affordability and housing costs. Aquiles also lays out investment themes he’s watching into 2026, including AI, quantum computing, nuclear energy, infrastructure, and aerospace/defense—plus how competition in chips could shape the next cycle for big tech.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #AquilesLarrea, #LarreaWealthManagement, #StockMarket, #MarketOutlook, #FederalReserve, #RateCuts, #Inflation, #JobsReport, #ADP, #Tariffs, #HousingMarket, #TechnologyStocks, #AI, #QuantumComputing, #NuclearEnergy, #Semiconductors, #NVDA, #MSFT, #GOOGL, #Infrastructure, #Aerospace, #Defense, #Investing, #WealthManagement, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger sits down with Jim Bianco of Bianco Research for a sharp breakdown of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and the growing disconnect between what markets are pricing and what the Fed is likely to deliver. With Wall Street centered on a widely expected 25-basis-point cut and softening signals like the weakest ADP print in more than two years, Bianco challenges the assumption that an aggressive cut cycle is a given—and asks whether the Fed can (or should) validate market expectations.

The conversation goes deeper into what may matter even more than the headline cut: the rising possibility of unusual dissent votes, what they signal about Fed independence, and how politics could influence the optics of decision-making. Bianco also argues that rate cuts won’t solve structural pressures such as automation-driven layoffs and a worsening affordability problem, and warns that pushing rates too low could reignite inflation and keep long-term yields elevated. They close by discussing how data disruptions and measurement challenges complicate the jobs-and-inflation picture—and why better administrative data may be the next big policy debate.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #JimBianco, #BiancoResearch, #FederalReserve, #FOMC, #RateCuts, #InterestRates, #Inflation, #JobsReport, #ADP, #JoblessClaims, #EconomicData, #MonetaryPolicy, #FedIndependence, #Dissents, #BondMarket, #TreasuryYields, #AffordabilityCrisis, #Automation, #AI, #MarketOutlook, #Investing, #WealthManagement, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this post-live episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger sits down with Aquiles Larrea for a wide-ranging market conversation—from today’s “lame duck” feel in equities to what could drive the next major move. Aquiles explains why investors may be overconfident in some areas while remaining overly skeptical in others, and why a recent pullback looks more like a normal (and slightly delayed) correction than a true breakdown.

They dig into the key macro catalysts ahead, including the upcoming Fed meeting, the impact of weakening private-sector employment signals, and how inflation and tariffs could pressure consumer affordability and housing costs. Aquiles also lays out investment themes he’s watching into 2026, including AI, quantum computing, nuclear energy, infrastructure, and aerospace/defense—plus how competition in chips could shape the next cycle for big tech.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #AquilesLarrea, #LarreaWealthManagement, #StockMarket, #MarketOutlook, #FederalReserve, #RateCuts, #Inflation, #JobsReport, #ADP, #Tariffs, #HousingMarket, #TechnologyStocks, #AI, #QuantumComputing, #NuclearEnergy, #Semiconductors, #NVDA, #MSFT, #GOOGL, #Infrastructure, #Aerospace, #Defense, #Investing, #WealthManagement, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this edited on-demand episode of The Money Path, host ⁠Todd M. Schoenberger⁠ sits down with Maria Jelescu-Dreyfus, Co-founder & CEO of ⁠Ardinall Investment Management⁠, for a timely breakdown of today’s biggest energy-market hinge points.

Maria explains why geopolitics—especially the Russia-Ukraine war—often gets mispriced, and how to spot when markets are under- or overpricing risk. They unpack the IEA’s 2026 oversupply forecast, the assumptions that matter most, and why shifting supply dynamics could change the outlook quickly. The conversation also explores what increased production from Russia, the upside potential in Venezuela’s heavy crude, and the uncertainty around Iran could mean for oil prices and volatility.

They close with a clear-eyed look at transition investing—why fossil fuels may remain essential longer than many expect, how legacy energy companies can adapt, and what investors should watch as capital flows move toward infrastructure and lower-carbon fuels.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #MariaJelescuDreyfus, #ArdinalInvestmentManagement, #EnergyMarkets, #Oil, #CrudeOil, #OPEC, #Geopolitics, #RussiaUkraine, #Venezuela, #Iran, #EnergySecurity, #IEA, #2026Outlook, #OilOversupply, #OilMarket, #Commodities, #Inflation, #NaturalGas, #LNG, #EnergyTransition, #RenewableEnergy, #LowCarbonFuels, #RNG, #Investing, #MarketOutlook, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this edited on-demand episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger sits down with Maria Jelescu-Dreyfus, Co-founder & CEO of Ardinall Investment Management, for a timely breakdown of today’s biggest energy-market hinge points.

Maria explains why geopolitics—especially the Russia-Ukraine war—often gets mispriced, and how to spot when markets are under- or overpricing risk. They unpack the IEA’s 2026 oversupply forecast, the assumptions that matter most, and why shifting supply dynamics could change the outlook quickly. The conversation also explores what increased production from Russia, the upside potential in Venezuela’s heavy crude, and the uncertainty around Iran could mean for oil prices and volatility.

They close with a clear-eyed look at transition investing—why fossil fuels may remain essential longer than many expect, how legacy energy companies can adapt, and what investors should watch as capital flows move toward infrastructure and lower-carbon fuels.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #MariaJelescuDreyfus, #ArdinalInvestmentManagement, #EnergyMarkets, #Oil, #CrudeOil, #OPEC, #Geopolitics, #RussiaUkraine, #Venezuela, #Iran, #EnergySecurity, #IEA, #2026Outlook, #OilOversupply, #OilMarket, #Commodities, #Inflation, #NaturalGas, #LNG, #EnergyTransition, #RenewableEnergy, #LowCarbonFuels, #RNG, #Investing, #MarketOutlook, #BTT, #BizTalkTodayTV

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In this on-demand episode of The Money Path, host ⁠Todd M. Schoenberger⁠ sits down with ⁠Ryan Detrick⁠, Chief Market Strategist at ⁠Carson Group⁠, to unpack why he remains firmly optimistic about the bull market—even with short-term volatility risk. Ryan explains the signals he trusts most, including market breadth, sentiment, and—especially—credit markets, and shares what would actually change his view (hint: widening credit spreads or a defensive leadership shift).

They also dig into the economic outlook, what potential Fed rate cuts could mean from here, and why December often delivers gains despite early-month chop. Looking ahead to 2026, Ryan lays out his “Ride the Wave” framework, expectations for lower double-digit returns if recession is avoided, and why volatility could rise as the Fed’s approach evolves. If you want clear, actionable perspective beyond the headlines, this episode delivers.

#TheMoneyPath, #ToddMSchoenberger, #RyanDetrick, #CarsonGroup, #StockMarket, #BullMarket, #MarketOutlook, #2026Outlook, #SP500, #Investing, #WealthManagement, #FederalReserve, #RateCuts, #InterestRates, #Inflation, #LaborMarket, #CreditSpreads, #HighYield, #MarketBreadth, #Volatility, #Tariffs, #EconomicOutlook, #BTT

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