The conflict between Hamas and Israel may have repercussions on the world economy (already weakened by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic and by the war in Ukraine). The price of oil and energy are the main concerns: the USA reserves of crude oil are at their lowest in recent memory, and prices are reaching dangerously high levels, just as the 2024 Presidential election gets closer. Across the pond, Europe is risking yet another rise in inflation - just as the cycle of interest rate hikes was coming to a close. The central banks need to walk a tightrope, in stiff conditions and avoiding the perils of stagflation: where high prices and zero growth coexist. A disaster that must be averted at all costs.

La sera del 9 ottobre 1963 uno tsunami di milioni di metri cubi d’acqua, provocato dalla caduta di una valanga in un bacino idroelettrico, si abbatta su una valle al confine tra Veneto e Friuli-Venezia Giulia, cancellando il paese di Longarone e provocando più di 1.900 morti. Da quella notte di autunno, la tragedia del Vajont è diventata simbolo dell’«ingegnerizzazione della natura», delle trasformazioni che l’uomo impone all’ecosistema fino a comprometterne gli equilibri. Sessant’anni dopo, l’acqua è al centro dell’emergenza climatica. L’“oro blu” è un bene che scarseggia, il cui valore continua ad aumentare vertiginosamente e su cui si appuntano le pulsioni speculative di un paradigma di sviluppo rovinoso: un paradigma che si alimenta di catastrofi e che mette in conto mille, altri possibili “Vajonts”. Al plurale.

With more that 32 trillion dollars in public debt, the United States are the country with the largest debt on earth. China and Saudi Arabia are no-longer buying American government bonds, and as the next Presidential election looms, many are starting to fear a new government shutdown: where federal activities are put on hold because the government can’t pass a budget legislation. The considerable increase of public debt in the USA and in the West as a whole, is going to cause serious expense containment measures, and severe service cuts. Once again, those who will suffer the most aren’t just the weakest classes and minorities, but also the middle class, fully-employed workers and small investors.

The United States are apparently in turmoil. While the American public debt is growing at a frightening pace, and the dollar’s supremacy as currency of the world reserve is in doubt, a dark sickness grips its people. In 2022, the United States saw a record 50,000 suicides. Never before, in the last fifteen years, did so many people decide to take their own lives. Despite these weaknesses, the USA is still unparalleled in its capacity to attract and utilize talent. Also in 2022, American startups managed to collect 245 billion dollars in venture capital financing. This number alone equals that of the rest of the entire world. When it comes to the decisive game of scientific progress and technological innovation, the new frontier is right there where we left it. Trailing across the wild and undiscovered country of the deep West.

Xi Jinping’s absence at the recent G20 summit, and the catastrophe that hit China’s real-estate sector just this August, may be deeper signs of change in the global balance. Meanwhile, in the West economists are divided: those that follow the school of Keynes see Beijing’s difficulties as caused by a crisis in internal demand. They don’t dramatize the possible repercussions of this downturn, and they congratulate the Biden administration on its public support towards the economy, seeing in it the correct response to the Chinese model. On the other front, conservative theorists want to take advantage of the dragon’s difficulties and to reaffirm the supremacy of a liberal economic paradigm. There’s great confusion under the sky, and the feeling is that the west continues to use outdated analytical approaches in attempting to make sense of the Asian colossus, its unique characteristics, and the paradoxes of our modern era.