In this in-depth Property Market Update, BMI Group’s Managing Director, Louis Montegriffo, joins David Revagliatte to explore the current state of Gibraltar’s property market and where it may be heading.

From the long-anticipated Brexit agreement and its impact on confidence, to property price realignment, rental market trends and off-plan development strategies, this candid conversation offers timely, expert insight for buyers, investors, and anyone with a stake in Gibraltar’s real estate landscape.

What’s covered in this update:
- Why confidence is the key force shaping today’s market- How price realignment is opening up buyer opportunities- The performance of the rental market and what it signals- The future of off-plan developments like One Bayside and Europa Walks- Concerns over studio oversupply and buyer speculation- Why Gibraltar remains resilient and attractive to high-value clients

The Gibraltar Property Update is a regular summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

The property market has undergone notable shifts in recent months, reflecting economic realignment and external influences. In this quarterly update, we explore key trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the current landscape, providing valuable insights for investors, clients, and stakeholders.

Market Overview: A Year of Updates

Our quarterly market updates have become a cornerstone for tracking developments in the property sector. Since mid-2022, the market has experienced a noticeable downturn, prompting discussions on topics such as frontline properties and rates per square meter. These updates aim to contextualize these shifts for clients, applicants, and market enthusiasts.

The Realignment Process

The market’s downturn is better characterized as a "realignment" rather than a recession. This adjustment, a natural economic process, reflects the recalibration of property values to align with realistic demand. An oversupply of properties, combined with sellers attempting to maintain inflated prices, has further driven this realignment. As a result, the market continues to evolve, with no significant deviations expected in the near term.

The Role of the Agreement

Central to this period of realignment is the much-anticipated agreement that has been a focal point in recent discussions. Despite delays, particularly following Rishi Sunak’s announcement of UK elections, confidence remains high that an agreement will be reached. This agreement holds the potential to stabilize the market and renew confidence in Gibraltar’s long-term prospects.

Gibraltar’s Resilience Amid Challenges

Gibraltar’s ability to overcome political and economic hurdles has been demonstrated time and again over its long history. Despite Brexit-related uncertainties, Gibraltar continues to offer stability, security, and a forward-looking approach to newcomers. These qualities have positioned the territory as a resilient player in the face of adversity, enabling it to emerge stronger from every challenge.

Key Economic Drivers

The local economy is predominantly fueled by e-gaming, online gaming, and financial services. These sectors remain pivotal, requiring protection and adaptability to navigate changing circumstances. Any agreement is likely to necessitate adjustments in business models, ensuring these industries continue to thrive while aligning with new regulations.

The Agreement’s Market Implications

From a property perspective, the anticipated agreement is expected to reinvigorate the market, albeit gradually. While an immediate surge in property prices is unlikely, increased fluidity in sales—absent over the past year—could signal renewed momentum. However, expectations of dramatic price increases should be tempered, as growth is likely to be incremental.

The property market’s realignment reflects a 10%-20% downturn, yet this period of adjustment is paving the way for sustainable growth. As Gibraltar continues to navigate its economic landscape with resilience and adaptability, stakeholders can look forward to a market that emerges more robust and aligned with current realities.

This update underscores the importance of staying informed and managing expectations as the market evolves. The future holds promise, but progress will be measured and deliberate, ensuring long-term stability.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

The rental market has served as a key indicator of Gibraltar’s overall property market performance. Over the past six months, rental activity has been a bright spot, with increasing volumes of transactions. Despite challenges in the broader property market, rental demand has remained strong, reflecting continued interest in Gibraltar as a destination.

Comparison of Sales and Rentals 

While property sales have slowed significantly due to various market factors, rentals have performed well. This disparity suggests that although buyers are cautious in the current climate, demand for housing persists. The robust rental market underscores Gibraltar’s continued ability to attract high-value clients and residents.

Shifting Rental Prices and Growing Demand 

Rental prices, which had dipped slightly in recent months, have begun to stabilise and even recover in some cases. Encouragingly, demand has surged for larger units, including two-, three-, and four-bedroom properties. This trend highlights the continued attraction of family-sized residences.

Ongoing Concerns in the Studio Market 

The studio apartment market in Gibraltar remains a longstanding concern. With approximately 1,000 studios either built or under construction, this segment represents the majority of properties available for sale and rent. The abundance of studio apartments raises questions about long-term sustainability and balance in the market.

The Impact of Speculative Investments 

Speculative investment in studio apartments has become a notable issue. Many young and inexperienced investors have purchased low-cost studios at high rates per square metre, drawn by quick profits. This speculative behaviour has led to many resales entering the market, reflecting potential over-supply and financial strain on these investors.

Concerns Over Speculative Behaviour

Speculation in the property market is not inherently problematic if managed carefully. However, the prevalence of inexperienced speculators in the studio segment has amplified the availability of resales, creating concerns about market stability. This trend has been a consistent source of unease in the local property market.

Looking Ahead: Updates and Market Insights

This podcast concludes with a summary of recent trends and developments. Future updates will not adhere to a strict schedule but will instead be shared when there is significant news. Anticipation remains high for updates on the impact of a potential agreement on Gibraltar’s property market.

Season’s Greetings and Future Outlook

As the year draws to a close, the team extends warm wishes for the Christmas season and expresses optimism for the year ahead. They look forward to continuing these discussions in the new year, sharing insights and updates on market developments.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

In this third and final property update of 2024, Louis Montegriffo, Co-Founder of BMI Group Estate Agents, offers an in-depth analysis of Gibraltar’s property market's performance over the last two quarters. 

The property market in Gibraltar has experienced significant changes in recent months, reflecting a period of economic realignment influenced by external factors. This quarterly update explores these developments, offering valuable insights for investors, clients, and stakeholders.

The past year has seen the market undergo a noticeable downturn, beginning around mid-2022. However, this downturn is better described as a "realignment" rather than a recession. The adjustment reflects a recalibration of property values to meet realistic demand. As stated in the discussion, "a lot of that also driven by an oversupply of properties coming on, people wanting to extract value on sales, which are no longer relevant."

Despite this realignment, no dramatic changes are expected in the immediate future. The process continues steadily, and while fluidity in property sales has slowed over the past 18 months, the long-term outlook remains optimistic.

Central to this optimism is the much-anticipated agreement. Although progress has been delayed, particularly due to the announcement of UK elections by Rishi Sunak, confidence remains high that a resolution will be achieved. As noted, "we still take the view now, months later, that that is still going to happen." The agreement is expected to stabilise the market and provide renewed confidence in Gibraltar’s long-term prospects.

Gibraltar’s resilience in the face of challenges has been a recurring theme. Its ability to overcome political and economic hurdles over centuries demonstrates its strength and adaptability. Even amidst Brexit-related uncertainties, Gibraltar continues to offer stability and security to newcomers.

The economy remains driven by key sectors such as e-gaming, online gaming, and financial services, which are vital to its continued success. Protecting and adapting these industries will be essential as any agreement may require adjustments in business models. From a property perspective, the agreement is likely to bring renewed energy to the market. However, as cautioned, "we don’t necessarily feel that we’re going to see a huge growth in property prices happen overnight."

Expectations should remain measured. While the market is not anticipated to experience dramatic changes, the gradual return of fluidity in sales will signify progress. The current realignment, involving a 10%-20% downturn in values, is a necessary adjustment, positioning the market for sustainable growth.

Gibraltar continues to demonstrate its capacity for reinvention, emerging stronger with every challenge. The property market’s evolution reflects this resilience, offering long-term promise for those invested in its future.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

In this second quarterly update of 2024, Louis Montegriffo, Co-Founder of BMI Group Estate Agents, offers an in-depth analysis of Gibraltar’s property market's performance over the last quarter. 

The Gibraltar property market has experienced a significant increase in the volume of properties available for sale and rent. There are 170 to 200 units for sale, a notable rise from the under 100 units in previous years. Similarly, rental availability has surged to 70-100 units from just 10 units a year and a half ago. This increase has led to a market slowdown and a slight realignment in property prices.

Property Prices
General Market: Prices have decreased by 5% to 12%, depending on the market segment.
Prime Properties: High-value prime properties have maintained their rates at £9,500 to £10,500 per square metre.
Average Price: The average property price in Gibraltar is currently £860,000 to £870,000, a slight decrease from last year.

Property Yields
Historically, Gibraltar has seen yields of 4.5% to 5.5% on buy-to-let investments.
Current yields have decreased to between 3.8% and 4.2%.
Buy-to-let investments now face competition from fixed-term deposits, affecting their attractiveness.

Market Drivers
Oversupply: The increase in property volumes, especially studios, has contributed to the price adjustments.
Interest Rates and Inflation: These economic factors have also impacted the market.
Pending Treaty: The anticipation of a new treaty agreement is expected to bring stability and confidence to the market, potentially preventing further price decreases.

New Developments
One Bayside Development: A new, low-density development with 57 units priced at £6,700 per square metre has been successful.
Future Developments: There is concern about high-volume, high-density developments currently under planning, particularly on Devil’s Tower Road, which may exacerbate the oversupply issue.

The Gibraltar property market is experiencing a slowdown, with increased property volumes and a slight price decrease. The market's stability and future growth depend heavily on the upcoming treaty agreement, which is expected to boost confidence and stabilise prices. Investors and buyers should consider the current market conditions, including the impact of new developments and economic factors when making decisions.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

In this first quarterly update of 2024, BMI Group offers an in-depth analysis of Gibraltar’s property market, reflecting its resilience and future prospects. After a surge in property prices between November 2020 and May 2022, the market has seen a necessary adjustment, with a slowdown in growth influenced by global factors like the war in Ukraine and rising inflation. 2023 was marked by a realignment, with high-value properties maintaining their worthwhileness. Others saw price corrections. Looking ahead to 2024, BMI predicts stability with slight improvements, cautioning against the potential oversupply in certain segments. Louis Montegriffo, Co-Founder, emphasises the importance of sustainable development amidst numerous new projects, advocating for a market driven by genuine demand and owner-occupier interests.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

In this episode, we transport you back to 1998, when BMI Group was first established. Dive into the early days of our company, and learn about the vision, challenges, and triumphs that laid the foundation for our growth and prominence in Gibraltar's property market.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

Our final episode assesses Gibraltar's current property market including some of the challenges we are facing. It focuses on BMI Group's plans for the future. We also hear from some team members contributing to BMI’s success. 

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

This episode showcases some of BMI Group's most significant contributions to Gibraltar's property market. From ambitious residential developments to landmark commercial projects, we delve into some of the developments that have redefined and elevated Gibraltar's real estate landscape.

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.

Join us as we explore BMI Group's expansion and the pivotal milestones of opening new client segments. Discover how our commitment to innovation and exceptional service allowed us to establish a strong presence locally. 

The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.