Hi, please let me know what you think. Many thanks! Bob M.

The UK economy stands on the brink of stagflation with 3.6% inflation and 1.2% growth, while the IMF warns Chancellor Reeves to raise taxes, scrap the pension triple lock, or introduce NHS co-payments. This analysis examines Britain's precarious economic position, the unsustainable fiscal trajectory, and the difficult choices facing a government that appears unwilling to confront harsh realities.

• UK economy projected to grow just 1.2% in 2025 with inflation at 3.6%, the highest in G7
• Public borrowing hit £20.7 billion in June 2025, overshooting forecasts by £3.1 billion
• Chancellor Reeves has only £9.9 billion in fiscal headroom, vulnerable to economic shocks
• State Pension Triple Lock has become financially unsustainable, costing far more than anticipated
• Pension spending has grown from 2% of GDP in 1940s to 5% today, projected to reach 7.7% by 2070s
• Labour has already skirted manifesto pledges by hiking employer National Insurance and changing pension tax rules
• IMF suggests raising taxes, scrapping triple lock, or introducing NHS co-payments
• Reducing immigration could further harm growth prospects
• Without bold reforms, UK risks fiscal crisis with potential IMF bailouts looming