For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

After a stellar 2017, eurozone economic data releases have disappointed recently. Stefan Isaacs joined me this morning to discuss the region’s prospects, focusing on the key learnings from the latest ECB meeting, why the US Treasury sell-off has so far failed to have a material impact on European rates, and implications for credit markets.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

Jim recently updated an old chart from 2007 showing the relationship between a flattening yield curve and credit spread levels. Back then, this classic leading indicator of recessions correctly predicted a big sell-off in corporate bonds. The rest, as they say, is history.

More than 10 years later, Jim joined me this morning on BVTV to discuss if recent US flattening means we really could be heading for the next big credit sell-off, or whether there are still enough factors to support credit. Watch as we debate the similarities and differences between 2007/8 and today.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

 

On this week’s BVTV I am joined in the studio by fund manager Dr Wolfgang Bauer and we will be focusing on the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions after the US imposed further tough sanctions against Russia. What does all this mean for bond investors and should we be now thinking about de-risking our portfolios? As ever, the picture is more nuanced than it would first appear. While Russian bonds and the ruble saw an inevitable tumble, credit markets in general have held up remarkably well over the past few days. Broader economic fundamentals also remain encouraging, with latest US inflation figures and Fed minutes suggesting a steadily improving economic backdrop.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

Bouts of market volatility have characterised the year so far as investors try to correctly price in news coming from the US. Is investor reaction truly reflecting the fundamental picture?

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

This week on BVTV, I have a look at past US interest rate cycles. With new Fed Chair Jerome Powell now in the hot seat, bond investors are keen to understand whether he will be more hawkish than his predecessor, Janet Yellen. Turning to the UK, the market is now pricing in a high probability that the Monetary Policy Committee hikes interest rates in May, but the flattening of the gilt curve may suggest the market doesn’t entirely share the Bank of England’s optimism on the UK economy.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

Toys “R” Us announced last week that it has so far failed to find a buyer or reach a debt restructuring deal, raising the prospect of widespread store closures and job losses. While a rescue package could yet emerge, the future is looking far from rosy for the toy store. M&G fund manager and deputy head of retail fixed interest Stefan Isaacs joined me this morning to discuss prospects for the firm’s high yield bondholders, and share his wider view of the outlook for the retail market.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

President Trump has sent shockwaves through the global business community with his decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US. Will this protectionist move prove to be the catalyst for an eventual downturn in global economic growth, and what are the implications for equity and bond markets? Randeep Somel, deputy fund manager of M&G Global Recovery fund, joined me this morning to discuss.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

In this week’s episode, fund manager Charles de Quinsonas joined me to discuss what the recent bout of market volatility meant for the emerging markets. Were all parts of the EM bond universe equally affected, and where do we see most value today?

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

This morning on BVTV I look at a couple of hot topics we’ve been discussing in recent meetings. Firstly, is it the market rather than the Fed that has been behind the curve? Secondly, in the UK, has the Bank of England’s thinking on Brexit changed in recent weeks? And in both cases, what does this mean for rate hike expectations?

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&G Securities Limited and M&G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.

 

 

With the European economy growing at its fastest pace for a decade – and with Italy itself seeing an impressive return to growth - the uncertainty of an Italian election is something investors will be keeping a close eye on. The country goes to the polls on 4 March, although the outcome is unpredictable with many observers expecting a hung parliament and no outright winner.

To discuss the potential ramifications of all this I am joined in the studio by our resident Italians, Carlo Putti from our fixed interest team and Graziano Creperio from our multi-asset team. We will consider some of the key risks that investors need to keep in mind, as well as some of the potential investment opportunities that could present themselves both leading up to and after the vote.