Boston Exile

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

[TRANSCRIPT]

Welcome to Breaking Brad. The New England Patriots suffered a 20-7 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 to open the season, and there’s a lot to consider when thinking about what this 2022-23 Patriots will look like and how they’ll ultimately finish. With that in mind, here are five takeaways from their Week 1 performance.

No. 1: Mental Mistakes are Becoming Normalbb

Yes, ever since the departure of Tom Brady, the errors that used to be uncharacteristic of Bill Belichick’s squad, committing turnovers, particularly fumbles, missed assignments, penalties - jumping offsides in crucial moments; these have all become fairly normal.

Bill Belichick, who used to rule with an iron fist when Brady was on the team, has become much softer on his players. You heard him after the game on Sunday, basically saying, if it weren’t for those mistakes, we could have had a chance at winning the game. Contrast that to the Tom Brady era, when the typical response was simply, “we need to play better, we need to execute better, we need to coach better.” Now, it’s a lot of fluff that we’re not used to seeing from Bill over the last two decades.

Perhaps he’s still trying to get his players to buy-in to their new system, new coaches, etc. But does Bill really think so low of this team, he has to pretend they’re playing better than they really are just to get their confidence up? If that’s the case, it’s cause for concern.

That being said, I’m really not that discouraged after this loss. I was expecting the Patriots to lose considering they always seem to lose down in Miami, even during the Brady era. Which brings me to point . . .

No. 2: The Mistakes Are Fixable

The first turnover came on a fairly egregious no-call on a hold against DeVante Parker that was deflected and intercepted. The Pats were driving the ball fairly easily up until that point, and were likely to end up in the end zone or settling for a field goal. So, I’m not going to worry about that play too much.

The big mistake that really hurt them, came on a strip sack against Mac Jones resulting in a touchdown, a Sack 6, that wasn’t really the quarterback’s fault. Either Trent Brown, the left tackle, should have picked up the safety blitz, or it was on Hunter Henry to either stop him or provide a quicker check down. Not sure exactly what happened there, but as expected from a tumultuous Training Camp, the offensive line communication broke down and cost them those seven points. Not a great look, but certainly as this offensive line spends more time together in this new zone run-type system, one would expect those mistakes not to occur as often.

Then there was the 4th & 7 in the final seconds of the first half. Kyle Dugger took a bad angle on Jaylen Waddle, who easily broke through the defense and scored a heartbreaking touchdown, giving the Dolphins a 17-0 lead heading into halftime. I can tell you, Dugger, who otherwise had a terrific game, will not make that mistake again. That’s a correction that can be made.

You take out those two plays where the Pats shot themselves in the foot, they would have been in the game and potentially could have won. Again, don’t love Belichick making that point, but it is the truth. In the NFL, the margin for error is small. If they avoided those mistakes, the Patriots might have actually looked okay.

No. 3: Kendrick Bourne is in the Dog House

Kendrick Bourne, who was arguably the Patriots first or second-best receiver last year, only played a couple of snaps on Sunday, which included an explosive, down-the-sideline gain, their biggest of the day.

Bourne reportedly did not buy into the adjustments Bill Belichick was making during Training Camp, he got into multiple fights in joint practices, and as a result, he’s being punished for it. You hope that will change soon, because he adds an element to that offense that can be a real gamechanger.

Bourne was frustrated on the sideline after getting pulled following his great catch. The very next play, Nelson Agholor made a boneheaded fumble, which the Dolphins recovered, ruining any chances of a late comeback.

No. 4: The Play Calling Wasn’t the Issue

With all the talk about the Patriots moving former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to offensive play-calling duties, there really didn’t seem to be any issues there.

Even without Josh McDaniels, the Pats stuck with a lot of the old, power run-heavy offense, while mixing in some of the new elements. I could easily have seen Josh McDaniels calling the same game and getting a similar result.

That wasn’t the issue, it was the execution.

And finally, No. 5: The Running Game Played Well

The Patriots basically had to abandon the run in the second half because they were playing catch-up, but in the first half, the running backs ran the ball nine times for a total of 41 yards. While those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, when you think back to where they were during Training Camp, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson getting stuffed over and over again, things actually looked fairly normal.

There is a lot to build on there.

Overall, there is no reason to panic just yet about this Patriots team. The mistakes that were made on Sunday, were enormous mistakes that cost them the game, but they were also fixable mistakes. My only concern: is the culture changing in Foxboro? Maybe Bill will get somewhere by going soft on his players in the final years of his coaching career. But at some point, he has to say, this isn’t working, and become a hardass again.

Next week’s game in Pittsburgh should be a real test. It’s a winnable game, but in a tough environment. If the Pats can minimize some of these mistakes, they should be able to walk away with a victory and get back on track. That’s a big if right now.

Be sure to like this video, subscribe and hit the notification bell. Until next time, this is Breaking Brad.

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This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

[Transcript]

Welcome to Breaking Brad, cooking up only the hottest of takes for you this evening.

Of all the teams one would expect to make a blockbuster move, few had the Cleveland Cavaliers at the top of their list. But that’s exactly what is happening.

According to Shams of The Athletic, Cleveland is trading Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji and three first-round draft picks, along with two pick swaps, to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Donovan Mitchell.

And while it will be exciting to see Mitchell play in Cleveland with a young, talented roster, this trade got me thinking, Danny Ainge is at it again.

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Yes, if you’re unfamiliar, Danny Ainge, the former GM of the Boston Celtics who traded away Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett for multiple high-value draft picks that ultimately turned into Boston’s current, championship-contending roster, just did basically the exact same thing in Utah.

Ainge is blowing the whole thing up, stacking future draft picks, and ensuring Utah remains a successful organization for years to come. Mind you, Ainge also recently brought in four additional first-round draft picks when he traded Rudy Gobert to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

So, when all is said and done, in these two trades alone, Danny Ainge has brought in seven unprotected first round draft picks, and three first round pick swaps. And by the way, Sexton, Markkanen and Agbaji, are all decent players. Not going to make up for the loss of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, but a few years down the road, Utah will be filled with talent and the Jazz will be contending for a championship.

Overall, the Jazz could have as many as 15 first round draft picks through 2029. They have three next year alone. And if the Cavs struggle at all from 2025 through 2029, those are going to be high-value lottery picks. The future is bright in Salt Lake.

I don’t know how Danny got away with this again. Cavs fans have reason to be excited in the short-term, but they got absolutely fleeced in this deal. They traded away their future, and for what? To be the fifth best team in the Eastern Conference? Darius Garland is good, they have a strong starting lineup, Kevin Love is coming off the bench in all likelihood, but is that team beating Boston, Milwaukee or Philadelphia? I don’t think so.

And another thing to keep in mind. I did a story on this yesterday. LeBron James wants to play with both his sons Bronny, who will enter the league in a couple years, and Bryce two years after that. He was quoted in Sports Illustrated saying:

“I’d definitely be looking at who got first-round picks in 2024, 2025, things of that nature; 2026, ‘27. I pay attention to that type of stuff.”

I would have never envisioned LeBron in Utah, but the chances of that happening just went up significantly.

Good for Danny Ainge, that man’s still got it. And happy for the Cavs, they’ll do very well in jersey sales over the next two years.

Okay, moving on.

Today, the Denver Broncos just made a significant step to ensure they have a real starting quarterback for years to come, after many failures since Peyton Manning.

The Broncos have extended Russell Wilson’s contract five seasons, at $245 million, with $165 million of that guaranteed. That means Wilson could remain in Denver through the 2028-29 NFL season, although there is a potential out in 2026, which I would not expect him to take. That means when Wilson is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2029, he’ll be 41 years old.

As much as I like Russell Wilson, who would be near the top of my list of quarterbacks to build a team around, he’s not Tom Brady. He’s a mobile, dual-threat quarterback, who’s taken lots of hits behind poor offensive lines over the years. And that might improve this year - Denver’s offensive line ranks 16th in the league, according to Pro Football Focus, so right in the middle of the pack.

But how is Russ going to be playing four-five years from now? I have no doubt he’ll put in the effort and take care of himself, but will his body hold up. He’s going to need to become a strict pocket passer, in my opinion.

This is a real gamble by the Broncos organization, which I kind of understand. It’s been failure after failure finding a quarterback. Drew Lock wasn’t the guy, and if you remove Peyton Manning out of the equation, they haven’t had a top quarterback since John Elway. And no, Jay Cutler, Jake Plummer and Brian Griese don’t count.

Look, WIlson is a future Hall of Famer, he never missed a game his first nine seasons in the league. Still played 14 of 17 last year, despite a broken finger. But, and this is a fascinating statistic from Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News: Russell Wilson has been sacked more than 35 times in all but two of his 10 years as a starter in Seattle. Tom Brady, by comparison, that’s only happened twice in his entire career.

I could be wrong, but we’ll see how he holds up.

Okay, final story of the day.

The New England Patriots will be taking their talents to South Beach well in advance of their Week 1 opener against the Miami Dolphins.

As we’ve seen in years past, when the Patriots go down to Miami, particularly early in the season, the blistering heat and humidity often takes a toll. In fact, since 2013, all those trips with Tom Brady and Super Bowl-champion teams, New England is just 2-7 at Miami. Yes, two wins in their last nine trips. And most of those were not very good Dolphins teams.

So, in an effort to acclimate the Patriots to a difficult environment, against what could potentially be a very good Miami Dolphins team, they will travel south on Tuesday, five days ahead of their first game.

Now, this won’t be the first time the Pats have dealt with the heat over the last few weeks. There was a fairly bad heat wave in Foxboro where temperatures reached the high-90s during Training Camp. The Patriots also just returned from a week-long trip to Las Vegas, where they practiced in similar temperatures with the Raiders before their final preseason matchup. But the cliche rings tried and true, it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity that will likely be an issue in Miami, in the thick of hurricane season. There’s always a chance of rain and thunder showers.

But with all these trips, heading out to Las Vegas, a week of practice in Miami, the Pats will likely have another extended trip later in the season when they take on Arizona and Vegas back-to-back; this provides a real opportunity to build team chemistry - which they really need.

At the very least, the offensive line needs that time to build trust and communication, with some of these zone run concepts they’ve struggled with all Training Camp.

I’m chalking this one up as a loss. I refused to bet on the Patriots in Miami even when Tom Brady was there, and their 2-7 record there over the last nine seasons shows why. That said, if they’re able to go down to Miami, with all the hype of adding Tyreek Hill, and DeVante Parker goes off against his former team, that would be one hell of a way to start a season that most Pats fans are very worried about.

Okay, that’s it. I’ve got a fantasy football draft to join. If you’re drafting these next few days, be sure to check out my recent video “Best Fantasy Football Draft Tips for the 2022 NFL Season,” which includes advice on how to draft players for consistency - there’s nothing worse than a fantasy team that doesn’t show up.

Be sure to like and subscribe. Will be back next week. Until then, this is Breaking Brad.

Thank you for reading Breaking Brad. This post is public so feel free to share it.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

[Transcript]

Welcome to Breaking Brad, cooking up only the hottest of takes for you this evening.

The New England Patriots have a 53-man roster. But perhaps more importantly, some of the surprise players that were waived by Bill Belichick, have been signed to the practice squad. Will go over that in just a minute. But first, let’s go over the full roster.

At quarterback, no major surprises. Mac Jones, obviously, followed by Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe. Hoyer looked great in the preseason, has more zip on his throws than in year’s past. And Bailey Zappe is a rookie, a bit of a work in progress, but reminds me a lot of Mac Jones. He’ll likely be the eventual backup.

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At running back, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson top the list. Ty Montgomery will be a strong third down back. We hope his ankle injury isn’t very serious. But that’s also what Pierre Strong Jr. is for, he was drafted by New England in the 4th round this year.

Pats are very deep at wide receiver, even without an obvious No. 1. Jakobi Meyers back in the slot, followed by DeVante Parker who should have a huge impact. Nelson Agholor, hope he has a bounce back year as a speedy vertical threat. Then Kendrick Bourne, a pleasant surprise last season. And lastly, Tyquan Thornton, arguably the fastest receiver to ever enter the league, set a record in the 40 yard dash at the Combine this year. He just underwent shoulder surgery, so you hope to see him sometime before midseason.

Just two at tight end: Hunter Henry, who had an incredible year last year. Could be a fantasy sleeper, potentially a 10 touchdown guy. And Jonnu Smith, a bit of a disappointment last year, but you hope he bounces back after a full year learning the system in New England.

The offensive line isn’t a big surprise, with Trent Brown, Cole Strange, the rookie left guard drafted in the first round, David Andrews at center, Mike Onwenu, Isaiah Wynn (who rumor has it is on the trade block), Justin Herron, Yodny Cajuste (had a great camp), and Chasen Hines who earned that last spot.

Now, shifting to the other side of the ball.

Over on the defensive line, look at that depth, with Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux, who both improved by leaps and bounds this offseason. Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, Carl Davis and Sam Roberts.

The linebacker positions look even better, which is a big deal after that pathetic performance in Buffalo during the playoffs. On the edge, Matt Judon is obviously a Pro Bowler, Josh Uche shows a lot of promise, and Anfernee Jennings had a tremendous camp as well. DeMarcus Mitchell is also on the list, he’ll help more in the kicking game.

On the inside, perhaps the greatest improvement in speed, after Ja’Whaun Bentley you have Raekwon McMillan and Mack Wilson, both players can sprint sideline-to-sideline with the best of them. Jahlani Tavai also another special teams guy, who may contribute on defense if any of the above go down.

At corner, the loss of J.C. Jackson hurt, but the Pats now have a ton of depth, so much they didn’t even need Terrance Mitchell on the roster. He was expected to start at the beginning of Training Camp, but rookies like Jack Jones and Marcus Jones are showing a lot of promise. They made the roster, in addition to Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones who will go up against Tyreek Hill in Week 1, Myles Bryant and Shaun Wade.

And finally, the deepest position on the roster, safety, the Patriots bring back captain Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger who’s really begun to move into a leadership role. Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, a veteran who was added this offseason, and Josh Bledsoe covering the slot in year two of his career. Looks like he dropped off the page.

Overall, while there’s nobody there that really jumps off the page as a superstar beyond maybe Matt Judon, that’s never been the Patriots. And once again, Bill Belichick has filled his 53-man roster with a lot of value and depth. Plenty of guys who can step up when somebody goes down. This is as deep a roster as I can remember. The question is, can they implement their new offense in time for Week 1 against Miami? Or perhaps they go back to the old way of doing things. We will find out very soon, but this should be a good team if those growing pains aren’t too bad.

Okay, moving on.

We have a 53-man roster now, and yesterday we went over some of the players cut or waived by Bill Belichick. Many big surprises, like Lil’Jordan Humphrey and J.J. Taylor. Luckily those guys are coming back, signing with the practice squad.

And I’m very happy they weren’t snagged by another team. Let’s take a look:

Three offensive linemen top the list: Bill Murray, a defensive lineman last year who just transitioned to guard. Big achievement for him to make the practice squad. Kody Russey is an undrafted rookie, has spent a lot of time playing center. We could see him if David Andrews goes down. And James Feretnz, who was basically downgraded to the practice squad after a rough training camp and preseason. He’s played in 27 games over the last four seasons with the Pats.

J.J. Taylor is thankfully still around. If Ty Montgomery remains injured heading into the season, expect him to play that third down, James White role at running back. Kevin Harris, had a few impressive carries in the preseason. He was drafted in the 6th round this year.

Then at receiver, Matt Sokol has been a frequent practice squad player for the Pats over the last three seasons, so he’s back there. Tre Nixon, had a strong summer, dominated many practices at training camp, but just was not consistent enough to make the team. That said, I would expect to see him with Tyquan Thornton out. Either Nixon, or the final guy, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who dominated during the three preseason games. Arguably New England’s best player this preseason. I’m amazed he wasn’t snagged by another team. He’ll be back, and could fill in as a third string tight end too if needed.

On defense, you have defensive tackle LaBryan Ray who had a great mini camp. Jeremiah Pharms, can play a number of different positions, had a couple run stuffs against the Raiders in the preseason. That was good enough to make the team. And then Harvey Langi, a linebacker that’s played 38 career games, will add a veteran presence to the squad.

Happy to see Cameron McGrone is back. He would have been one of the top linebackers in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Michigan, but an ACL injury dropped him quite a bit. He sat on the sideline last year, and is still looking to get back on track. This is a guy to watch out for, a potential star if he can get healthy and stay on the right track.

Brad Hawkins, an undrafted safety also out of Michigan, has picked up a spot. A lot to contend with at the safety position on the Patriots, so this just adds even more depth.

And last, but certainly not least, veteran Terrance Mitchell, arguably one of the more expensive practice squad players on a roster. He was expected to be New England’s No. 1 corner at the beginning of Training Camp, but the development of the young guys dropped him way down. But looks like he’s sticking around. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him back real soon. Mitchell has a history of being a solid lockdown defender, who forces a lot of fumbles.

So, the Pats got nearly everyone back that they waived, except for tight end Devin Asiasi, who signed with the Bengals. He was underwhelming for the Pats in two seasons, despite being a third round draft pick.

This is a good practice squad. A lot of these guys are going to contribute this year. Once again, the Pats don’t have many stars, but they check all the boxes in the depth department.

Okay, last story for today.

We all know the plan for LeBron James is to play another couple seasons with the Lakers, see where his son Bronny is drafted when he enters the league, and then join that team, wherever that may be.

A pretty good 2-for-1 deal if you ask me. Even if Bronny isn’t the No. 1 prospect, he’ll likely go No. 1 with teams knowing LeBron comes with him.

But that would mean LeBron would turn 40 his first season playing with his son. But a la Tom Brady, it doesn’t sound like LeBron wants to retire anytime soon after that.

According to Sports Illustrated, LeBron doesn’t just want to play with his 17-year-old son, Bronny. He also wants to play with his 15-year-old son, Bryce.

LeBron was asked about playing with Bryce and said: “I feel like I could play for quite a while. It’s all up to my body, but more importantly, my mind. If my mind can stay sharp and fresh and motivated, then the sky’s not even a limit for me. I can go beyond that. But we shall see.”

LeBron going beyond the sky, through the ozone layer, all the way to outer space, to face the Martians.

So, does that mean LeBron will sign another two-year contract to play with Bronny? Then, become a free agent, and sign a contract with Bryce’s team? Also, will Bryce and Bronny even be good enough? These are all questions that will need to be answered.

But I would not be surprised to see LeBron James play, not just at age 40, but well into his 40s. With all the advances in sports and nutritional science, and all the hard work he continues to put in, I think he can do it.

Now, do I think he’ll reach Tom Brady status and play at 45 and beyond? Probably not. He relies on his athleticism much more than Brady. Those physical traits tend to break down greatly for folks in their 40s, if they haven’t already in their 30s.

Alright, that’s it for today’s episode. Be sure to like this video and click the subscribe button. Will be back tomorrow. Until then, this is Breaking Brad.

Breaking Brad is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

[TRANSCRIPT]

Welcome to Breaking Brad, cooking up only the hottest of takes for you this evening. Going to be a bit of a short one today, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing newsworthy.

That’s because it’s cut day in the NFL, the final and most painful one, where teams are required to drop their roster size from 80, all the way down to 53, with a few practice squad players in between.

The New England Patriots, as of this recording, haven’t fully released their 53-man roster, but there have already been many notable cuts that some may find surprising.

The first one is cornerback Terrence Mitchell, who seemed like he would be the main DB opposite Jalen Mills early in Training Camp. A veteran presence, who had some success with the Houston Texans, especially as a lockdown corner that can force fumbles. Now, Mitchell likely would have made the team if it weren’t for his salary, and the surprising development of newly-drafted corners Marcus Jones and Jack Jones. So, this is actually great news, because it shows the Pats have been largely successful at getting younger and faster at the cornerback position.

Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keen will go down as two failed early draft picks in recent years. Both former 2020 3rd round picks will not make the roster at the tight end position. There was a lot of hope for these guys, but it just didn’t pan out. Not a great look for Bill Belichick. Those two make N’Keal Harry look like Tyreek Hill. They combined for a grand total of five career catches.

Some other cuts, Kevin Harris, the other running back named Harris, who the Patriots drafted in the 6th round this year, was waived by the team. Not a huge surprise there, considering the depth they have at that position. But perhaps a bigger surprise at that position, J.J. Taylor, who looks like James White’s doppelganger out there, will not be playing the James White role, at least for now. He was cut by the Pats as well. That’s encouraging news for Ty Montgomery, who went down with an ankle injury in their final preseason game against the Raiders. Hopefully he’ll be back and healthy in that third down back role very soon.

Cam McGrone is another surprising cut. There were high expectations for the speedy, athletic linebacker, but he never was able to bounce back from his college injury and make the roster. It is, however, an encouraging sign with the depth the Patriots now have at that position.

Justin Bethel, a veteran special teamer, was also cut in a surprise move. Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who dominated the preseason, perhaps as the Patriots best receiver (also played tight end a little). He was waived as well.

A full list of the Patriots roster cuts should be available on Patriots.com very soon, probably by the time you watch this video. Something also to note, some of these players may re-sign depending on the IR moves made by the Patriots, they could be on the practice squad. Hopefully that’s the case for players like Lil’Jordan Humphrey and J.J. Taylor.

Moving on to the next story . . .

With NFL teams required to bring their rosters down to 53 players today, the Kansas City Chiefs, an organization with a plethora of talent at the wide receiver position (even after losing Tyreek Hill) have informed Josh Gordon of his release.

Gordon played 12 games with Kansas City last season, following suspension No. 6 of his career. He collected just five catches, 32 yards and a touchdown. Not exactly dazzling numbers, but makes sense on a roster that deep.

Gordon intends to continue playing, tweeting out: “Appreciate all the Chiefs kingdom has done for me and my family this past year. Thanks for the opportunity and the many memories. Excited to see where the next part of my football journey takes me #itsabusiness #dreamchasing.”

I still expect Josh Gordon to contribute somewhere. Not New England, despite many on Twitter suggesting otherwise. They just have too many receivers to begin with. Perhaps a team like the Packers, who could use some help at that position, or maybe the Bucs, since Gordon has a strong relationship and experience playing with Tom Brady.

Gordon has made a lot of news over the last decade for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy, mainly for smoking cannabis. However, the substance abuse policy has now changed, as they no longer will be testing players for THC. So, there is less of a risk to signing Gordon at this point in his career.

Last story tonight, I told you this would be a short one.

Want to follow up on this story that broke yesterday evening, with the San Francisco 49ers making the decision to keep Jimmy Garoppolo. What does that mean for Trey Lance, and the future of the quarterback position in San Francisco?

Well, one thing is for sure, if the Niners are keeping Jimmy G, after basically saying they were trading him and naming Trey Lance their starting quarterback in the offseason, there is a good chance Lance is on a short leash. Clearly Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and company do not trust Lance to be their starter, at least at this time. Garoppolo will be waiting in the wings, and I would bet he starts at least a few games this season.

So, the real question is, if that happens, Lance isn’t ready and the Niners have to resort to Jimmy G, thinking ahead to next year’s NFL season, when Jimmy G is gone as a free agent and Lance is the only guy left, will they hand him the keys again? Will they take away the keys before Week 1 this season? It’s not looking good, and this is an extremely talented roster that should be competing for a Super Bowl right now. I mean, they nearly made it back last year with Garoppolo.

Well, I know a certain quarterback playing in Tampa, who grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, who would love to finish his career close to home. The Niners goofed in 2020, when they passed on Tom Brady. I’m sure right now, if they had to choose between Jimmy G, Trey Lance, or Tom Brady, they would jump at the idea of having Tom Brady. I mean, he was just named the No. 1 player, currently in the NFL by his peers.

Assuming Brady doesn’t retire next year, which I don’t think is a big assumption (his retirement this year was fake, he wanted to get released and go to the Dolphins),he would have to be interested in playing for San Francisco. It just makes too much sense.

It always seemed inevitable to me, if Brady didn’t finish his career with the Patriots, it would be with his childhood team, the Niners. Especially when you consider the talent on that roster. It’s analogous to what Tampa was two years ago when Brady decided to go there, but with a more stable, buttoned-up organization.

Brady would get one of the best coaches in the NFL, the best rosters and be close to his family. It’s a no brainer.

Okay, that’s it for today’s quick episode. Be sure to like and subscribe, hit that notification bell. Will be back tomorrow. Until then, this is Breaking Brad.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bostonexile.substack.com

[TRANSCRIPT]

Welcome to Breaking Brad, cooking up only the hottest of takes for you this evening.

The New England Patriots dropped their third and final preseason game on Friday, 23-6, in an embarrassing defeat that leaves a sour taste in everyone’s mouth less than two weeks out from their regular season opener, on the road against the Miami Dolphins.

It’s hard to know where to start. Jarrett Stidham, New England’s former third string QB, shredded the Patriots starting defense. On the offensive side of the ball, Mac Jones threw an interception that dropped right in the middle of a five-man, Raiders stand-up meeting. Running back/receiver Ty Montgomery, who’s had a tremendous camp, went down with an ankle injury and may be out for a period of time. He didn’t practice on Monday.

Even the special teams are struggling. Mind you, these were the Patriots starters going up against mostly second and third string Raiders players.

So, what may be the cause of this Patriots team having their single worst training camp and preseason in more than two decades?

As crazy as it sounds, I think a lot of that blame has to fall on Bill Belichick, who destroyed any semblance of continuity from the way New England has done things over these last 20+ years.

Mac Jones fit in the Tom Brady/Josh McDaniels offense like a glove. But now in his second season, he has to learn a new offense, which his o-line doesn’t seem to be picking up, thus hampering the protection that’s been so consistent in New England.

Belichick named a former defensive coordinator, basically the de facto offensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, who has no experience in this area, much less implementing a Kyle Shanahan-esque stretch offense that’s never been run in New England before.

Moreover, Patricia’s official title is offensive line coach, so he’s not giving as much attention to them as a traditional o-line coach normally would. 

And this Patriots team, with all the criticism, actually has a fairly talented roster. They’re deep at receiver, with DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton, one of the fastest receivers we’ve seen in New England in a long time. They got two stud tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Lil’Jordan Humphrey may be contributing there as well.

Perhaps the best safety group in the NFL with Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips and Jabrill Peppers added to that.

Speed on the defensive line and linebacker positions that weren’t there last season. And plenty of options to go to at the cornerback position, depending on the many receiver combinations the Pats might face this year.

And let’s not forget Mac Jones, who showed up to camp in incredible shape, and many are expecting to make a Joe Burrow-style leap in Year 2.

So, what the hell is going on?

My worry is, Bill Belichick is pulling a Gregg Popovich and going soft. He’s become much friendlier with players since Brady left (becoming a player’s coach if you will), more practices in shells (not pads), and more days off than we’ve ever had. Remember no days off?

He also changed the offense to incorporate the zone run, which is supposed to be an easier concept to learn for new players (although that certainly hasn’t been the case so far).

It’s understandable there’s going to be some growing pains, particularly after losing Josh McDaniels, one of the best offensive coordinators in football. But last season was a bridge year - and the Pats played well all things considered. They made it to the postseason with a rookie quarterback, the offense really wasn’t the issue by the end of the season, it was the speed and athleticism of the defense. They seem to have upgraded there.

This is the year where Pats fans should be going, “Alright, it’s time to compete with the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals.” Instead we’re going, “Will this team finish 7-10?”

One of the big complaints from Tom Brady and Gronk following their time in New England was the Patriots are such a difficult organization to play for. There is a lot expected of each player, and not a lot of time for rest, recovery or fun. It seems Belichick really took that to heart.

But that’s what made the Patriots so great, being the most disciplined organization in the NFL. Now, it looks like all that discipline is on the coaches (poor Matt Patricia is doing like four different jobs), and not falling on the players like it used to. Meanwhile, in Tampa, Tom Brady is upset about the lack of coaching and discipline in the Bucs organization.

The grass isn’t always greener on the other side, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Maybe the Pats can mix in some of these zone run concepts, bootlegs and play actions we see in LA and San Francisco. But don’t veer away from what’s worked well for so long - a strong power running game and an Erhardt-Perkins/west coast-style offense.

This could be a very good team if they don’t blow the whole thing up.

Alright, speaking of Tom Brady . . .

Every year, each player in the NFL gets an opportunity to cast their vote to identify the best players in the league heading into that season.

And look, I’m as big a Tom Brady fan as they come. I’m not one of those rare disgruntled Patriots fans - I think Brady’s the GOAT, no question about that. I’ve always admired his work ethic and competitive spirit, especially because he’s not really that athletic of an individual. He’s never had the strongest arm, although the velocity has improved since his early 20s. He’s slow as molasses, but managed to develop some of the best footwork in the pocket we’ve ever seen. He’s accurate, knows what’s coming before the ball is snapped.

But at 45 years old, in a league with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, don’t forget Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Donald - I would be very hesitant to say he’s the best player in the NFL right now. But that’s exactly how the players in the league feel.

Mind you, this was not a survey asking for the best overall player, throughout their career. Brady would certainly top that list. This is the best player, right now, entering the 2022-23 NFL season.

According to the players, Tom Brady is No. 1, Aaron Donald at No. 2, Aaron Rodgers at No. 3, then Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor (who I like, great for fantasy, but wouldn’t put at No. 5 just yet), T.J. Watt, Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes at No. 8, Jalen Ramsey, then Travis Kelce at No. 10. So, Josh Allen didn’t even make the top ten. In fact, he landed at No. 13, behind Myles Garrett and Derrick Henry for some reason.

While I would probably put Brady in the top five, maybe not No. 1, there is certainly a case to be made he’s still the best. His numbers last year: first in touchdowns, first in passing yards, first in first downs, and his offense led the league in points and touchdowns.

The only reason Aaron Rodgers beat him in the MVP race last season, Rodgers threw fewer picks and closed the season better than Brady.

Would you still put Brady at No.1? Let me know in the comments.

Okay, so we are in the last week before Week 1 of the NFL season officially begins, which means the vast majority of fantasy football drafts will take place between now and Labor Day. And fantasy football is frustrating for many. You put in so much time prepping, and then end up with a completely different team than you expected. Or maybe you’re impressed with the players you have on paper, but those players lay the occasional goose egg far too often.

For those fantasy football players, this video is for you. I have five valuable pieces of advice that should prevent you from banging your head on the coffee table by Week 6.

My first piece of advice: Do Not Draft Josh Allen.

“But Brad, Josh Allen is the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL. That’s stupid advice.” No it’s not (unless you’re able to get him in the 5th round).

But I guarantee, somebody in your league is going to use their first or second pick on Josh Allen. Don’t be that guy who uses a first or second round pick on a quarterback.

Drafting Allen early could mean missing out on a top running back or wide receiver that just won’t be available in the second or third round. There will be an opportunity to draft Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray or Joe Burrow later. We’re not talking about a major downgrade by passing on Allen.

And that leads me to my second piece of advice: Draft Value at Positions Where There Isn’t a Ton.

The first that comes to mind: tight end. There’s one reliable, consistent tight end in all of the NFL, and that’s Travis Kelce. Sure, many think Mark Andrews from the Ravens is comparable. But when you look at their overall body of work, is there any tight end you should trust more than Travis Kelce? No!

Don’t be afraid to use a first round pick on Kelce, or even Andrews. Because if you wait too long to draft a tight end, and Kyle Pitts is off the board, then George Kittle, then Darren Waller (who really wasn’t that reliable last season), there’s a short list of about four or five players who can contribute at tight end on a consistent basis. Then it’s, you know, Hunter Henry. Either a touchdown or a goose egg. Don’t put yourself in that position. Draft Kelce if you can.

Consistency is vital, that’s why for my third piece of advice: Look for Players with Low Variance (or High Consistency).

There are websites that measure this. FantasyPros.com has a table that ranks all draftable players by their week-to-week consistency. They call it quality starts percentage.

Just to give you an example, players like Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb all rank in the top 10 of most draft boards. But those players provide quality starts roughly 50% of the time. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler is about 88% of the time. Najee Harris from Pittsburgh, 76% of the time. Draft those guys instead.

I guarantee, nobody in your league is drafting players by consistency. They’re just looking at the ESPN or Yahoo ranking and looking at the name that pops.

Now, this may not help you win every week. But you will average more points, and that will translate to wins and a better playoff position.

Another piece of advice: Don’t Be Afraid to Make Aggressive Moves After Week 1.

Your team is not set in stone. There is so much parity in the NFL, and you can find out a lot of information on rookies and dual threat players in Week 1. If you have a league with free agent cash instead of a waiver wire, don’t be afraid to spend it early.

Some things to watch for:

* Rookie running backs getting a majority of their team’s snaps

* Players that suddenly play two positions, i.e. Cordarrelle Patterson and Deebo Samuel last season.

* Mid-level receivers getting a disproportionate number of targets, particularly on teams that don’t have a deep receiving corps. I’m looking at you Baltimore.

* And quarterbacks with vastly improved offensive lines. I mean think about what Joe Burrow did last year with falling jenga pieces in front of him. Imagine what he can do now that he has some protection.

Don’t fall in love with the players you drafted. Cut some of those guys after Week 1 if you see any of these surprises crop up.

And finally, my last piece of advice: Be Strategic Drafting a Kicker.

This is not as important as the others, but it can come in handy. Conventional wisdom is to draft a kicker on a team with a good offense. More chances down the field means more field goals, right? Not exactly.

What if that team typically gets in the end zone, like the Kansas City Chiefs? What if they go for it on fourth down a lot, like the Chargers?

If you try to guess who were the top three kickers in fantasy football season, you’d probably put Justin Tucker somewhere in there. After all, he’s the best kicker in the NFL.

But he wasn’t in the top three. The top three kickers were Daniel Carlson from the Raiders, Nick Folk from the Patriots, and Chris Boswell from the Steelers.

The key here is to draft a kicker on a team that has a solid offense, but not a great one. Last season, the Raiders, Patriots and Steelers, none were top-tier offenses, but they certainly weren’t bottom-tier either. They were moving the chains, but often settling for field goals on red zone appearances.

That’s what to watch out for. Don’t worry so much about the kicker. These are professionals who typically make their field goals. That’s why it’s such a big story when a kicker misses multiple kicks. Worry about the team they play for. That may give you a 5-10 point edge.

Alright, that’s it, but before I go, I wanted to note this story that just broke.

According to Adam Schefter, Jimmy Garoppolo will remain with the San Francisco 49ers this season. He restructured his deal to contain a no-trade and no-tag clause, meaning he will become a free agent before next season.

Jimmy G will be the backup behind Trey Lance, and many expected Garoppolo to be traded before the season starts. Looks like that’s not the case. Not exactly a show of confidence for San Francisco’s young quarterback, Lance. We’ll see how long Jimmy G stays on the bench.

I’m a believer that when healthy (and that’s a big when), Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He nearly made it back to the Super Bowl last year, and has shown he can lead a complex Kyle Shanahan offense.

You know, I was expecting the Cleveland Browns to make a run at him. 11 games with Jacoby Brissett is rough, but I guess Jimmy G is staying with the Niners. Perhaps the greatest backup in the history of football.

Okay, that’s it for the show. If you like what you’ve heard, be sure to subscribe, like and hit the notification bell. Will be back tomorrow. Until then, this is Breaking Brad.

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