Restarting: I need a way to keep track of important things than I have read, plus ideas and reactions that I have had. Trying to do it Friday mornings seems a good thing to try. And by now there is quite a backlog. January 20, just before my start-of-the-semester & Trump-inauguration schedule collapse, when I started the serious dropping of eggs on the floor, was the last time I did a “Weekly Briefly Noted”, after all:So I continue to catch up, here with the second half of February. What did I write, and what did I find it important enough as I read it to make a SubStack Note about? These:
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SubStack NOTES: JH: 'if there is a ceasefire Ukraine can claim victory too. They can truthfully say they saved their nation and kept their independence. This would be as close to a win/win as possible in a war of miscalculation that has killed around a million people on both sides...","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"But how durable will a ceasefire without security guarantees be? I mean, you can make deals with people who are trustworthy, but deals with people who are not trustworthy require enforcement mechanisms, or they are no deals at all. Stay well, Brad DeLong"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"> JH: 'if there is a ceasefire Ukraine can claim victory too. They can truthfully say they saved their nation and kept their independence. This would be as close to a win/win as possible in a war of miscalculation that has killed around a million people on both sides..."}]}]},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":4,"attachments":[{"id":"a77cc11d-fc22-478a-8816-6238dd992047","type":"post","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":16879,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"J. 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And, without peacekeepers, I do not think there is a bargaining set to choose a point in."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"> Michael Dawson: Market Totalitarianism: 'What's motivating Skidelsky to repeat his unhelpful comments? Is he forgetting how politics works, or is he trying to advance some (non-obvious) coherent alternative position? Or is he merely helping Putin?..."}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":4,"attachments":[{"id":"75aaeb1a-23c9-4b73-85e3-109d77ffafc7","type":"post","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":16879,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"J. 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Too many assessments of the war pose arguments about changes in the character and nature of war through the lens of only studying this war. That is insufficient to truly understand the…","wordcount":1454,"postTags":[],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":2466309,"name":"Mick Ryan","handle":"mickryan","previous_name":"Mick Ryan, AM","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa577e0a3-b09f-4858-9305-86e56f6e7b9f_2048x1365.jpeg","bio":"Retired Australian Army Major General - author, strategist, keynote speaker & sci-fi tragic. Focussed on warfare, military strategy and how military institutions can prepare for the future. CSIS & Lowy Institute fellow. Banned in Russia!","profile_set_up_at":"2022-07-06T09:59:31.925Z","publicationUsers":[{"id":1152785,"user_id":2466309,"publication_id":1198399,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":1198399,"name":"Futura Doctrina","subdomain":"mickryan","custom_domain":null,"custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"A conversation about technology, ideas, people and their convergence in contemporary war and competition. 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At least, we can for investors willing to actually put their money behind their thoughts. \n\nIf you think inflation is going to be high, you sell Treasury Bonds and buy Treasury TIPS. If you think inflation is going to be high, you put on the reverse trade. From the prices of Bonds and TIPS, you can back out from their relative prices what the expectations of those placing the average pile of money on the checkerboard in this trade is. The breakeven CPI expected inflation rate over the next five years is 2.54%/year—dead-on for the Federal Reserve to hit its 2.0%/year PCE-index target. The breakeven CPI expected inflation rate over the next five years is 2.54%/year. The breakeven CPI expected inflation rate over the five years beyond that is 2.30%/year—a very fine p***** hair’s width below target. And that is where—with the exception of a very minor inflation-expectations move up and then down when Putin attacked Ukraine—is where things have been ever since the end of the COVID plague depression. 12%, 15%—throwing such numbers around as if they are actually in play in terms of bond-trader expectations is an act of gross unprofessionalism on the part of the writers and the editors of the “London Economist”.\n\nI know that at least some of them no better. Maybe they have some cockamamie stupid reason to think that their writing to make their readers who trust them stupider is for the greater good. If so, I would really like one of them to pick up the phone and tell me what it is. \n\nAnd, no, John Cochrane has no specified and estimated model of the inflation process in which inflation is “like cockroaches”.\n\nHighly, highly unprofessional.","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Journamalism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Sigh. Why in the immortal name of THE ONE WHO IS would anyone write this?:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Economist"},{"type":"text","text":": Investors fear inflation is coming back. They may be right: ‘Is the world about to repeat the mistakes of the 1970s?… “Inflation is like cockroaches,” John Cochrane of Stanford University recently wrote. “When there are only a few left [it] is not the time to let up.”… In America inflation hit 12% in 1974, fell to 5% in 1976 and then climbed to 15% in 1980…. Only with an enormous recession in the early 1980s, which policymakers engineered by using a shedload of borax, did they at last exterminate inflation for good. Investors are unsure if high inflation will return. Market pricing points to the Federal Reserve implementing looser monetary policy in the future—and where the Fed leads, other central banks follow… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/20/investors-fear-inflation-is-coming-back-they-may-be-right","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/20/investors-fear-inflation-is-coming-back-they-may-be-right"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"#actually, we can see what “investors think”. At least, we can for investors willing to actually put their money behind their thoughts. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"If you think inflation is going to be high, you sell Treasury Bonds and buy Treasury TIPS. If you think inflation is going to be high, you put on the reverse trade. From the prices of Bonds and TIPS, you can back out from their relative prices what the expectations of those placing the average pile of money on the checkerboard in this trade is. The breakeven CPI expected inflation rate over the next five years is 2.54%/year—dead-on for the Federal Reserve to hit its 2.0%/year PCE-index target. The breakeven CPI expected inflation rate over the next five years is 2.54%/year. The breakeven CPI expected inflation rate over the five years beyond that is 2.30%/year—a very fine p***** hair’s width below target. And that is where—with the exception of a very minor inflation-expectations move up and then down when Putin attacked Ukraine—is where things have been ever since the end of the COVID plague depression. 12%, 15%—throwing such numbers around as if they are actually in play in terms of bond-trader expectations is an act of gross unprofessionalism on the part of the writers and the editors of the “London Economist”."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"I know that at least some of them no better. Maybe they have some cockamamie stupid reason to think that their writing to make their readers who trust them stupider is for the greater good. If so, I would really like one of them to pick up the phone and tell me what it is. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And, no, John Cochrane has no specified and estimated model of the inflation process in which inflation is “like cockroaches”."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Highly, highly unprofessional."}]}]},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":5,"attachments":[{"id":"6929a4fa-bc64-463b-8f42-d829cf93b2d4","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16bb0431-eab4-4a99-9d10-9a56a2f46fbe_1914x900.png","imageWidth":1914,"imageHeight":900,"explicit":false},{"id":"2900fb12-8a43-4f4f-8dfe-293065ead775","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/20/investors-fear-inflation-is-coming-back-they-may-be-right","host":"economist.com","title":"Investors fear inflation is coming back. They may be right","description":"Is the world about to repeat the mistakes of the 1970s?","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c4e1c246-50ab-4eee-acdc-075a7a867dab_1280x720.jpeg","original_image":"https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250222_FND003.jpg"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\nThe behavior of the NHCCI index is indeed quite strange. And if it were true, we should not have been able to build as many miles as we have managed to build…","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Macroeconomics"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"I refereee this for Tedeschi and van Nostrand vis-à-vis Furman:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Ernie Tedeschi & Eric Van Nostrand"},{"type":"text","text":": Has U.S. infrastructure investment really declined?: ‘The devil is in the deflator, and most deflators show it has risen since 2019…. Using the official price index… the… BEA) uses…real highway spending has risen 11 percent since 2019…. Furman’s claim that it has fallen depends on using.., the National Highway Construction Cost Index… an outlier relative to other measures… [that] has shown much more inflation….. We also explore non-spending measures of real infrastructure, including miles of highway measured by the Federal Highway Administration and inferred from OpenStreetMap. These measures both show an increase in highway construction since the BIL was passed…. Broader measures of real infrastructure investment beyond highway construction also show a significant increase… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.briefingbook.info/p/has-us-infrastructure-investment?r=cmh8p&triedRedirect=true","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.briefingbook.info/p/has-us-infrastructure-investment?r=cmh8p&triedRedirect=true"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The behavior of the NHCCI index is indeed quite strange. And if it were true, we should not have been able to build as many miles as we have managed to build…"}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"b9bc80f8-349d-4dd2-9fc8-b9c67380d7ae","type":"post","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":540204,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"Briefing Book","cover_photo_url":null,"created_at":"2022-07-14T18:25:53.090Z","custom_domain_optional":false,"custom_domain":"www.briefingbook.info","custom_publication_theme_id":null,"default_comment_sort":"best_first","default_coupon":null,"default_group_coupon":null,"default_show_guest_bios":true,"email_banner_url":null,"email_from_name":"Briefing 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Practically everything that crosses my screen seems to me, in one way or another, to be like Bobby Lee trying to understand the Civil War he was fighting. He was always looking for a moment like Ney’s Hurrah at Friedland—when a surprise flank attack would send the enemy into a panicked flight after which pursuit could eliminate them as a force in being—or a Pratzen Heights moment—when an enemy distracted onto the flank would allow him to hammer the center, split the enemy army, and sent it into a panicked flight after which pursuit could eliminate them as a force in being. Never happened. But his attempts to do so accelerated the attrition of the Confederate Army, and hastened the day when with 300,000 dead, 300,000 maimed, and 200,000 run, the remaining 100,000 would surrender their weapons.\n\nBut which of the many sides of the argument is most wrong in their assessment of the battlefield of the killer robots today?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"W"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"ar & Rumours of War"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"This timeline with the killer robots is truly a terrifying one:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Phillips P. O’Brien"},{"type":"text","text":": 'Lets start with the basic lesson of war in the 20th and 21st centuries. 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He was always looking for a moment like Ney’s Hurrah at Friedland—when a surprise flank attack would send the enemy into a panicked flight after which pursuit could eliminate them as a force in being—or a Pratzen Heights moment—when an enemy distracted onto the flank would allow him to hammer the center, split the enemy army, and sent it into a panicked flight after which pursuit could eliminate them as a force in being. Never happened. 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Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
SubStack Posts: We are going to try to soft-relaunch \"Inflection Point\" next week, with our first guest being the highly estimable John Ganz, author of When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, & How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s, and proprietor of Unpopular Front . 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There remain two big questions: The first is: Was the inflation of the first third of the 2020s was a bad thing, or a good thing—avoiding the worse outcome of possible recession and a return to secular stagnation on the one hand, and an essential component toward a very desirable sectoral and industrial reörientation of the American economy into a more productive configuration? I think that the balance of the evidence is that it was a good thing for all those reasons. The second is: Are the political consequences of inflation—that it annoys every voter, and makes them all conclude that the government is not competent to fulfill its macroeconomic managemetn contract with the public—sufficiently bad to override the production-economics benefits of the inflation we just experienced? This question, I think, is in close balance. But I have been impressed by the fact that only voters misinformed about the economy broke for Trump, while voters who knew what was what for others as well as for themselves broke for Harris by large margins.\n\nFirst Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications My Godley-Tobin Lecture at the Eastern Economic Association’s annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square hotel, New York, New York… It has turned out to be a full-throated defense of Federal Reserve monetary policy in the 2020s: moving late & moving fast has been remarkably successful ex post, and was certainly much more than defensible as a strategy ex ante. We are very lucky to have had Jay Powell, his committee, and his staff in the hot seats so far this decade.… 2025-02-22 Sa","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"<"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/first-principles-of-fiscal-policy","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/first-principles-of-fiscal-policy"},{"type":"text","text":" the Biden administration & the congress made a major mistake in 2021 with the American Rescue Plan and thus dealing the Fed a more difficult hand—that is a closer question, but I still come down on the side of no ex ante, although clearly yes ex post. There remain two big questions: The first is: Was the inflation of the first third of the 2020s was a bad thing, or a good thing—avoiding the worse outcome of possible recession and a return to secular stagnation on the one hand, and an essential component toward a very desirable sectoral and industrial reörientation of the American economy into a more productive configuration? I think that the balance of the evidence is that it was a good thing for all those reasons. The second is: Are the political consequences of inflation—that it annoys every voter, and makes them all conclude that the government is not competent to fulfill its macroeconomic managemetn contract with the public—sufficiently bad to override the production-economics benefits of the inflation we just experienced? This question, I think, is in close balance. But I have been impressed by the fact that only voters misinformed about the economy broke for Trump, while voters who knew what was what for others as well as for themselves broke for Harris by large margins."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications "},{"type":"text","text":"My Godley-Tobin Lecture at the Eastern Economic Association’s annual meeting at the Sheraton Times Square hotel, New York, New York… It has turned out to be a full-throated defense of Federal Reserve monetary policy in the 2020s: moving late & moving fast has been remarkably successful ex post, and was certainly much more than defensible as a strategy ex ante. 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