Party strategy, London Boroughs and Birmingham

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Mid term elections in the UK - I discuss why they are important and what to expect - part I

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The public are mostly concerned with the King's Health. The situation in Persia remains difficult, the stock market rallies on hopes the Conservatives are going to win

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Attlee calls an early election as George VI has a lung removed.

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I go through the final polls, timings for the exit poll and counts, what is the exit poll etc and a word on Scotland and Wales

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The electorate still not really looking at Labour's policies, I discuss the latest polling data and what it means, and a few words on the ground campaign

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 I do a quick state of the race update, explain why the Conservatives and Lib Dems may do better than Reform on a similar or lower vote share and then look at candidate effects including so called incumbency advantage.

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This episodes discusses what the polls are saying, but also why they can be different and explains some of the pitfalls in assessing the mood of the country accurately. I also explain what we mean by MRP-poll. I explain why the evidence points to a better votes to seats outcome to Labour than at previous elections and explain briefly what could happen in the increasingly unlikely event of a hung parliament, and add why that [again] favours Labour.

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I talk about the fundamentals of the 2024 election - why the Conservatives have such a mountain to climb. The importance of ratings on the economy and the rating of the PM on the election outcome.

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This episode goes through the events of the 1950/51 Parliament, ECHR signing, Bevan resignation, death of Bevin and loss of Cripps, by elections and Persia issue

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