Business Valuation... Real Talk

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The first interest rate increase since July 2023, on September 12th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise its target for the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point from 3.75% to 4%. This move has significant impacts to company valuations.

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A unicorn is a mythical horse-like creature with a single, spiraling horn on its forehead, but the term also has distinct meanings in business, specifically in the world of Finance. In venture capital and economics, a unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at over $1 billion. Could your start-up, with no revenue be the next unicorn or close to it?

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The US Private Equity Activity increased during the month of June, in comparison to not only its prior month but year over year growth. So does this mean that the growth in the M&A market, that we have been waiting on for over 13 months, has finally arrived?

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Whether it is a generative AI, MLA (machine learning applications) or AI enabled productivity, these tools have influenced the financial and strategic drivers of valuations and quiet honestly, here at OPG, it has literally reshaped the M&A transaction dynamics.

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2026 has brought the same old story lines which continue to be a factor in the growth of various industries. With new and interesting challenges that seem to pop up every single day. Companies need to control the things you can control and manage the things you cannot.

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Privately Held middle market companies have seen bankruptcies surged in 2025, reaching the highest levels since the Great Recession, with over 700 U.S. corporate filings driven by high interest rates, inflation, and yes, tariffs. This upward trend is expected to continue through early 2026, with industrial and consumer discretionary sectors facing the highest distress.

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Recent updates to US tariffs on imports from China and our North American trading partners (Mexico and Canada), as well as reciprocal global tariffs on other countries, along with retaliatory tariffs, may cause uncertainty in the markets and supply chain disruptions that can significantly affect US businesses and your valuations.

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We are amid the greatest tailwind since 2019, yet it seems different this time around. The stock market is at an all time high. Interest rates went through three rate cuts leading into 2026 and AI has been the forefront of growth for middle market companies. Yet, having a business valuation is more important today than it has been in years past.

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What a valuation provides is a roadmap for future success, The future of securing funding, the future of having fair partner agreements, and a future for ensuring business longevity beyond the owner's tenure. A valuation is proactive tool, not just for a business transaction, it provides an objective benchmark for performance and value creation over time. 

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Having an accurate valuation for your company, your estate or your exit strategy is critical. If not done correctly it could cost, you or your family in the end, thousands if not millions of dollars. This month, we will discuss the importance of having a valuation for either Gift & Estate planning, exit strategy platform ESOP or for an M&A transaction.