businessline's State of the Economy Podcast

While commercial vehicles have remained stable, there is a shift towards higher-tonnage trucks due to increased demand for transportation, says Vinod Aggarwal, President, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, in conversation with businessline’s Ronendra Singh. 

The auto industry has witnessed a remarkable performance in fiscal year 2024, with passenger vehicle sales reaching 4.2 million units domestically. In March alone, there was an impressive growth of 8.9%, totaling 317,976 units compared to 292,030 units previously. 

Aggarwal highlights the industry's robust growth, with an overall increase of 12.5% in fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year. Passenger cars have reached a new peak of 4.2 million units, with a growth rate of 8.4%. Two-wheelers have also seen significant growth, reaching 18 million units with a growth rate of 13.5%. 

He also predicts continued growth in the industry, driven by factors such as economic growth, positive monsoon forecasts, and pent-up demand. While the industry may not see double-digit growth, there is confidence in sustained growth in the coming year. 

Towards the end of the podcast, the conversation mentions that the electric vehicle segment is also showing promising signs, with steady progress in technology and increasing consumer interest.

Host: Ronendra Singh,  Producer: Amitha Rajkumar

In this episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, Subramani Ra Mancombu speaks to Rathish Balakrishnan, Co-founder of Sattva Consulting on the issue of water scarcity in Indian agriculture, highlighted in the report “Transforming Crop Cultivation: Advancing Water Efficiency in Indian Agriculture.”

Co-released by the DCM Shriram Foundation and Sattva Knowledge Institute, this report calls for action to tackle the critical water crisis affecting the nation’s farming sector.

The report highlights that agriculture consumes a whopping 90% of India’s water resources, with irrigation alone using up 84% of available water.

Balakrishnan emphasises the seriousness of the situation, noting that despite being home to 17% of the world’s population, India has only 4% of the world’s water reserves. With about 73% of the country already experiencing some form of water stress, the water crisis poses a significant challenge. He stresses the report’s focus on addressing groundwater depletion, a critical issue worsened by agriculture’s excessive water use.

The report identifies key crops like cotton, sugarcane, and rice as major water consumers. Balakrishnan underscores the need for targeted solutions to reduce the impact of these water-intensive crops while safeguarding farmers’ livelihoods.

One of the report’s main recommendations is to establish an engine for localised agricultural ecosystems. Balakrishnan explains that this engine would offer tailored solutions based on regional contexts, enabling stakeholders to make well-informed decisions.

The report also proposes creating a Water Vulnerability Index to guide decision-making processes, providing vital data for policymakers and businesses.

Balakrishnan also highlights the importance of building a network of stakeholders to drive collective action. By bringing together state governments, industry players, and civil society organisations, this network can facilitate concerted efforts to address the water crisis at both local and national levels.

In terms of practical solutions, Balakrishnan emphasises promoting on-farm conservation techniques. These include measures like drip irrigation and alternate wetting and drying, which can significantly reduce water usage while maintaining agricultural productivity.

Furthermore, Balakrishnan addresses the issue of food waste, noting its significant contribution to water inefficiencies in agriculture. By tackling food waste through improved storage and distribution systems, the report aims to maximize the efficiency of water usage throughout the food supply chain.

Listen in!

Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu, Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian.

In this State of the Economy podcast, anchored by businessline’s Chitra Narayanan - Shiv Shivakumar, Operating Partner, Advent International, and Prathap Suthan, Managing Partner/CCO, Bang In The Middle, look at the concept of nation branding, dissecting successful examples from around the globe, while shining a spotlight on India’s work and the untapped potential. 

Shiv Shivakumar highlights India’s economic, cultural, and entertainment contributions to underscore the country’s relevance on a worldwide scale. Although India has achieved progress in several areas, he believes that more can be done. 

With regard to India’s branding journey, Suthan, who had played a role in the Incredible India and India Shining campaigns gives his take on slogans like “Digital India” and “Make in India” and the ROI of such exercises. He proposes that investor sentiment and global perceptions should be used to gauge the effectiveness of these initiatives. He feels Bharat or India, a rose is a rose by another name, and there are many more stories about India that need to be sold.  

Shiv talks about the dynamics of hard and soft power in nation branding, citing examples of how India has showcased its soft power during global crises like Covid with its Vaccination Programme. 

Both Shiv and Prathap share successful branding campaigns from countries like Korea, Switzerland, and Australia, while also talking about the missed opportunities by others. 

The focus shifts to India’s USP where Shivakumar proposes a fusion of India’s rich cultural heritage with its technological advancements as the key to set it apart on the global stage. 

The podcast also highlights India’s status as a work-in-progress nation. Shiv Shivakumar underscores the critical role of credible media in shaping India’s brand narrative, urging for greater diversity and credibility within the industry. 

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(Host: Chitra Narayanan, Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian.)

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Anjana PV discusses various methods of measuring India's digital economy. The podcast is joined by Deepak Mishra, Director and CE of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), and Mansi Kedia, Senior Fellow at ICRIER. The discussion explores the need for a new framework to assess digitalisation and the gaps in existing global indices. 

Deepak and Mansi introduce the CHIPS framework, developed by ICRIER, as a comprehensive approach to measuring digitalisation in India. CHIPS stands for Connect, Harness, Innovate, Protect, and Sustainability, representing the key pillars of digitalisation. This framework offers a holistic view of digital transformation, considering connectivity, impact, innovation, protection, and sustainability factors. 

The CHIPS framework addresses the limitations of traditional indices by incorporating outcome variables and reducing the risk of double-counting, particularly benefiting developing countries like India. It emphasises the importance of understanding both linear and non-linear paths of digital development and highlights dimensions such as cybersecurity, privacy protection, and environmental sustainability. 

The CHIPS framework provides policymakers, researchers, and practitioners with a nuanced understanding of India's digital economy, enabling informed decision-making and effective policy interventions. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding the diverse pathways of digitalisation and the need for nuanced frameworks to capture its complexities. The episode offers valuable insights into the evolving landscape of digitalisation in India and its implications for economic growth and development. Tune in to learn more about the CHIPS framework and its role in shaping policy interventions and driving inclusive digital transformation. 

 (Host, producer & edits: Anjana PV)

In the latest episode of the State of Economy podcast, businessline’s Shishir Sinha discusses with DK Srivastava,Chief Policy Advisor, EY, recent data releases, particularly focusing on GST numbers and the PMI manufacturing index, both showcasing substantial growth. 

Srivastava interprets these indicators as reflections of the Indian economy's buoyancy in the last quarter of FY24, with manufacturing PMI at 59.1 and GST collections reaching a record high of 1.78 lakh crore in March 2024. These figures suggest that the GDP growth estimates for FY24, set at 7.6%, could potentially be surpassed, hinting at robust economic performance. 

As the conversation transitions to the upcoming election quarter, the anticipation is for increased demand, especially in the MSME sector, driven by election-related expenditures. This is expected to further boost GST numbers and sustain economic buoyancy in the first quarter of FY25. 

However, concerns arise regarding the potential impact of weather forecasts indicating high temperatures and heatwaves. While this may pose challenges for the agricultural sector, which has been relatively subdued in recent quarters, it could also exert pressure on inflation, primarily through food prices. 

Expectations regarding headline inflation remain steady, with projections indicating a range of 5 to 5.4%. Despite a downward trend in core inflation, largely influenced by controlled energy prices, the overall inflation outlook remains stable. 

Regarding monetary policy, Srivastava suggests a cautious approach, with the Monetary Policy Committee likely to maintain current interest rates, given the balanced inflation and growth scenario. Any policy adjustments are expected to be gradual, possibly in the second half of FY25, after assessing the fiscal policy stance following the budget presentation. 

In conclusion, amidst positive growth forecasts for FY25, ranging from 7 to 7.5%, supported by election-driven demand and anticipated infrastructure spending post-monsoon, the Indian economy appears poised for continued expansion. 

 (Host: Shishir Sinha, Producers: Anjana PV & Amitha Rajkumar)

In this ‘State of the Economy’ podcast hosted by businessline’s Parvatha Vardhini C, Ashish Shanker, MD&CEO, Motilal Oswal Private Wealth, starts by telling us what lies ahead for the equity markets after the relentless rally of the last 3 years. He feels that though India remains strong fundamentally with good growth rates, globally, the picture is not so great. Interest rates have not come off as early as expected, geo-political issues remain and the fact that this year is election-heavy across the globe suggest that there are enough risks in the system, according to him. Ashish sees earnings growth this fiscal reverting to long-term averages in both the large-cap and mid and small-cap spaces. For FY25, he expects Nifty earnings is expected to be in the mid-teens and advises investing in a blend of growth and value strategies. While FY24 earnings have been driven by margin expansion on lower commodity costs, he expects operating leverage from capacity expansions to help earnings from now on. Gold is hitting new highs and alongside equity and gold, HNIs and ultra HNIs - whom Motilal Oswal Private Wealth services - are taking to private credit as well as real estate funds, he says. Listen to this insightful conversation for more on trends in the equity markets and how you should invest this year.

Host: Parvatha Vardhini C, Producer: Siddharth Mathew.

There is a need for sustained investment in research and development to drive sustainable innovation and address complex defence challenges, says Vijaykrishnan Narayanan, Coordinator, INDUS-X Academic Collaborations, in conversation with businessline’s Dalip Singh. 

Singh kicks off the conversation by emphasising the unique perspective an academician brings to the podcast on defence. He highlights the growing importance of cross-pollination between academia and industry, especially in the context of India-US collaboration through initiatives like INDUS-X. 

Narayanan provides valuable insights into the progress and potential of the India-US Defence Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X). He discusses the collaborative efforts between academia, startups, and government agencies to advance critical emerging technologies in defence and space domains. 

The discussion touches upon various aspects, including the identification of key technological areas, funding mechanisms, regulatory challenges, and the role of academia in fostering innovation. Narayanan emphasises the need for sustained investment in research and development to drive sustainable innovation and address complex defence challenges. 

Addressing the regulatory challenges, Narayanan acknowledges the enthusiasm of both Indian and US government officials to break down barriers and facilitate collaboration. He advocates for a mindset shift towards empowering individual researchers and institutions to navigate regulatory complexities effectively. 

Drawing comparisons with similar defence innovation partnerships, Narayanan emphasises the unique potential of the India-US collaboration to redefine the trajectory of bilateral relations. He underscores the shared passion and commitment of researchers and policymakers from both countries to leverage technology for the greater good of mankind. 

As the discussion draws to a close, Narayanan outlines the next milestones for INDUS-X, including the launch of shared test beds, calls for collaborations, and upcoming events to deepen defence technology discussions. He expresses optimism about the progress and invites listeners to stay tuned for further updates on this transformative collaboration. 

Host: Dalip Singh, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar

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About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In the latest episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, Vikram V, Vice President and Sector Head Corporate Ratings at ICRA, discusses the PM Surya Ghari Yojana, a scheme aimed at revitalising the rooftop solar sector in India. Vikram explains that the scheme offers subsidies to reduce the capital cost of setting up rooftop solar plants and electricity bills for consumers. The subsidy is aimed at an estimated 1 crore households with monthly electricity consumption below 300 units. 

Vikram highlights the key features of the scheme, including increased subsidy components, easier access to financing with low-interest rates, and defined timelines for approval processes. He emphasises the need for awareness about the scheme and the availability of qualified vendors to facilitate its implementation. 

The discussion also touches upon the challenges faced by the rooftop solar sector, such as low awareness, lack of qualified vendors, and complex approval processes. Vikram suggests that the success of the scheme depends on the cooperation of state governments and distribution companies (DISCOMS) in promoting and implementing it effectively. 

Regarding the scheme's impact on the industry, Vikram predicts a significant demand for domestic solar module manufacturers, creating opportunities for growth in the sector. He emphasises the importance of state-level monitoring and promotion to ensure the scheme's success across different regions. 

Vikram stresses the need for sustained awareness efforts and tailored approaches for different states to maximise the scheme's potential. He believes that with effective implementation and support, the PM Surya Ghari Yojana can drive substantial growth in the rooftop solar sector and contribute to India's renewable energy goals. 

(Host: Rishi Ranjan Kala, Producers: Anjana PV & Siddharth Mathew Cherian)

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, TE Raja Simhan speaks to Ankit Kumar, founder and CEO of Gurgaon-based Skye Air Mobility, about drone technology and its impact on logistics. 

Ankit shares insights about drone technology and its role in logistics. He highlights how government policies, especially since 2018, have paved the way for widespread adoption, revolutionising industries beyond just delivery. From agriculture to healthcare, drones are enhancing efficiency and effectiveness across various sectors. 

One of the key discussions revolves around the critical role of drones in last-mile delivery, particularly in densely populated areas like Gurgaon. Ankit explains Skye Air Mobility’s approach, utilising autonomous drones and infrastructure like the Sky Pod for seamless, efficient delivery directly to residential areas. 

But what about safety and reliability, especially in densely populated areas? Kumar details the meticulous planning and robust fail-safe systems employed by Skye Air Mobility to ensure safe operations, including redundant systems, autonomous navigation, and emergency protocols. 

Beyond logistics, Ankit Kumar sheds light on the environmental benefits of drone delivery, including significant reductions in carbon emissions and minimising human involvement. He emphasises the efficiency of drone delivery, enabling faster, batched deliveries compared to traditional methods. 

Looking to the future, Ankit discusses the potential challenges of managing air traffic as drones become more prevalent. He outlines the need for sophisticated unmanned traffic management systems, like Skye UTM, to ensure safe and efficient drone operations nationwide. 

Listen in! 

(Host: TE Raja Simhan; Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian)

In the midst of election fervour and the bustling currents of Corporate India, there emerges a discourse that’s setting the business world abuzz: the draft Digital Competition Bill, heralded by the Centre. This legislative proposal, still in its nascent stages following the inter-ministerial committee’s report, stands at the verge of reshaping India’s digital landscape. With the digital economy poised to skyrocket to $1 trillion by 2025-26, the implications of this bill are monumental, aiming to sculpt the future of digital dominance and competition within the Indian market.

This draft isn’t merely a set of regulations; it’s a vision for a balanced digital ecosystem, where the behemoths of Big Tech are held in check, fostering an environment where innovation and smaller players including Startups can thrive. The essence of this proposed legislation is its proactive stance—ex-ante measures—designed to anticipate and mitigate anti-competitive behaviour before it unfurls, setting a precedent for a more equitable digital domain.

The draft Digital Competition Bill when enacted into law in current form would lead to introduction of ex-ante measures for regulating Big Tech.

The digital Panel has recommended ex-ante measures to complement the current ex-post framework by identifying large digital enterprises with a ‘significant presence’ in India in selected ‘Core digital services’ and setting pre-determined rules for their conduct.

Put simply, ex-ante measures in competition law refer to proactive regulatory actions taken by authorities to prevent anti-competitive behaviour before it occurs.

These measures are aimed at addressing market structure and dynamics to promote competition and prevent market distortions, rather than reacting to specific instances of anti-competitive conduct after they have already happened.

The report and draft Bill has recently been exposed for stakeholder comments. The last date for submission of views is April 15.

As we look at this significant piece of potential legislation, we’re joined by Dinoo Muthappa, an expert in the field of Competition Law with over 15 years of expertise. In this episode of the BL State of the Economy Podcast, Muthappa takes a look at the intricacies of the draft bill, its comparative stance to the EU’s Digital Markets Act, and the spirited debates it has ignited across the nation regarding the necessity and timing of such a framework in India’s current economic trajectory.

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Host: KR Srivats, Producer: Siddharth MC.