businessline's State of the Economy Podcast

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Abhishek Law speaks to Jayesh Rathod, Director and founding member of the Guardians Real Estate Advisory about the prevailing real estate trends in the country while offering an in-depth exploration of the factors driving the market's momentum. 

The conversation begins with a focus on the current bullish phase in housing sales, prompting Law to inquire about the sustainability of this trend and its driving forces. Rathod highlights the crucial role of sentiment in real estate, attributing the positive momentum to factors such as stable governance and robust infrastructure development. 

As the podcast unfolds, Rathod offers insights into various aspects, from the impact of mortgage rates on housing demand to the emergence of luxury segments in response to evolving consumer preferences. He emphasises the importance of understanding market nuances, such as demand-supply dynamics and regional variations, in gauging future trends. 

The discussion extends beyond residential real estate to commercial and industrial sectors, including the growing significance of commercial office spaces and the increase in demand for data centers and warehouses. 

The podcast further explores the evolving landscape of Tier 2 cities and their role as emerging real estate hubs, driven by infrastructure development and changing lifestyle preferences. 

Rathod goes onto reflect on the long-term sustainability of the real estate market, particularly in light of emerging trends and industry innovations, providing a nuanced understanding of India's evolving real estate dynamics, underpinned by data-driven analysis and expert perspectives. 

Host: Abhishek Law , Producer: Amitha Rajkumar

-----

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

Last month, India’s largest capsules maker and the world’s second-largest – ACG – was feted in Davos, on joining the World Economic Forum’s Global Lighthouse network.

“Lighthouses” are a beacon of sorts, when it comes to adopting advanced technologies to transform manufacturing, and globally there are 153 certified Lighthouses, across industries.

ACG Managing Director Karan Singh explains their journey in achieving the “Oscars of manufacturing”. As a supplier to every other pharma company in India and major global companies – the milestone puts it in a small and elite group that is implementing advanced manufacturing technologies and boosting productivity, sustainability and supply chain resiliency - a beacon for others in the industry.

( Host: PT Jyoti Datta, Producers: Nabodita Ganguly & Siddharth Mathew Cherian) 

-----

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

The discussion between Rishi Agrawal, CEO and co-founder of TeamLease RegTech, and businessline’s Lokeshwarri SK, sheds light on the sequence of events leading to the RBI's decision to halt deposit-taking and certain operations of Paytm Payments Bank. 

Agrawal explains that while the regulatory development may seem like a sudden reaction, it is the culmination of a series of issues dating back to 2018. 

 He highlights instances of non-compliance, including the submission of false information and violations of Know Your Customer (KYC) norms, which resulted in penalties imposed by the RBI. Agrawal emphasises the importance of KYC compliance in maintaining trust and credibility in the financial system. He discusses how lax compliance can lead to vulnerabilities, potentially enabling nefarious activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing. 

Agrawal also refers to concerns about data privacy in the fintech ecosystem, pointing out the lack of robust regulations and enforcement mechanisms. The conversation touches upon the role of fintech companies in driving innovation and efficiency in the financial sector. However, Agrawal emphasises the need for these companies to prioritise compliance and regulatory adherence alongside growth objectives.  He warns about the dangers of overlooking compliance in favour of rapid expansion, citing examples of misconduct and data breaches. In conclusion, Agrawal underscores the importance of regulatory oversight in safeguarding the financial system's integrity and protecting consumer interests. 

He advocates stricter regulations, enforcement measures, and penalties to deter non-compliance and ensure accountability within the fintech ecosystem. Listen in. 

Host: Lokeshwarri SK, Producer: Nabodita Ganguly

-----

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this ‘State of the Economy’ Podcast, Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays, helps us understand inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal management in shaping India's economic future. 

India's inflation targeting framework has been a cornerstone of monetary policy since the inception of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Bajoria explains how the adoption of flexible inflation targeting was driven by the need to manage elevated inflation levels effectively, and to set the stage for more sustainable economic growth.  

Bajoria also speaks about the intricate relationship between fiscal and monetary policies, emphasising the importance of coordination between the two. He also underscores the role of fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical tool for managing inflation, illustrating how the alignment between fiscal and monetary policies has evolved over time to enhance macroeconomic stability. 

He also talks about the impact of global factors on India's inflation trajectory, and discusses the implications of rising interest rates in the US and other global markets. 

The discussion also touches upon the dynamics of private sector investment, (or Capex), and its role in driving economic growth. Bajoria shares with us his observations on factors influencing corporate investment decisions, highlighting the importance of a conducive policy environment and macroeconomic stability in bolstering investors' confidence.  

Listen in to know more. 

-----

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

 In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, BusinessLine’s Amiti Sen talks to Ranja Sengupta, Senior Researcher, Third World Network, about the world of global trade, with a special focus on the upcoming 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization. 

Sen starts the discussion by shedding light on the pivotal issues facing India and other developing nations at MC13, while highlighting the possibility of introduction of new issues like ‘gender and environment’ into the WTO agenda.

As the conversation unfolds, the spotlight shifts to subsidies for fisheries—an issue with profound implications for sustainable development. India, blessed with extensive marine resources, faces the challenge of balancing conservation imperatives with the need to support local fishermen's livelihoods. 

The discussion also touches upon the ban on e-commerce duties and its impact on developing countries like India. While initially agreeing to extend the ban, there's growing awareness of the revenue loss and the need to develop domestic e-commerce capabilities. 

Throughout the podcast, there's an emphasis on the need for developing countries, particularly India, to protect their interests and negotiate effectively in the WTO. This involves collaborating with other developing countries and leveraging strategic positions to ensure favourable outcomes in the negotiations. 

Host: Amiti Sen, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar

-----

About the State of the Economy podcast 

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups 

In this State of the Economy, businessline’s Ronendra Singh talks to Sulajja Firodia Motwani, Founder and CEO of Kinetic Green about the dynamic landscape of India's electric vehicle market. The conversation unfurls with optimism, mirroring the promising course of electric two-wheelers in the country.

The conversation kicks off with an exploration of the electric two-wheeler market's performance, building upon its success in the previous calendar year. Suja acknowledges the growing interest among consumers, citing a recent survey indicating a quarter of potential buyers considering electric options. She predicts that within the next five to seven years, electric scooters and variants will dominate the streets, rendering their fossil-fuel counterparts obsolete.

The discussion then shifts to Kinetic Green's role in this transformative journey. Suja reflects on the company's legacy and its recent foray into electric two-wheelers, particularly highlighting the enthusiastic response to the reintroduction of the Luna in electric format. However, she remains realistic, recognising the need for aggressive market engagement and the importance of delivering value beyond just product offerings.

As the podcast draws to a close, one thing becomes abundantly clear: Kinetic Green's journey transcends mere business—it's a quest for a greener, more sustainable tomorrow, where every revolution of a wheel propels humanity towards a brighter future.

(Host: Ronendra Singh, Producers: Amitha Rajkumar & Nabodita Ganguly)

About the State of the Economy Podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, businessline’s Kurmanath K V, talks to Srikanth Velamakanni, Co-Founder, Group Chief Executive of Fractal and Shruti K.P, Partner, IndusLaw, and unravels the intricacies of India's startup ecosystem and explores the recent announcements made by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the interim budget .  

Kurmanath kicks off the episode by highlighting the challenges faced by startups in accessing funding, despite the growth of the ecosystem. He sheds light on the significance of the budgetary schemes aimed at benefiting startups.  

Srikanth identifies existential challenges startups encounter, including talent acquisition, product-market fit, and managing cash flows. He emphasises the cyclical nature of investment flows and the abundance of capital waiting to be deployed, particularly in deep tech startups.  

The discussion delves into the budgetary proposals, such as the allocation of ₹1 trillion for promoting research and innovation in startups. Srikanth views this initiative optimistically, anticipating its potential to encourage startups to dream bigger and invest in cutting-edge ideas. However, he cautions against delays in accessing funds, urging policymakers to streamline the process to support startups effectively.  

Shruti elaborates on the extension of tax benefits for startups, emphasising the stringent eligibility criteria and the limited number of startups that benefit from such incentives. The conversation goes on to acknowledge the need for more comprehensive support mechanisms beyond tax exemptions to aid startups in their initial years.  

In the latter part of the podcast, the experts stress the importance of targeted investments in critical sectors like AI, quantum computing, and defence technology to bolster India's startup ecosystem. They express hope that the government's initiatives will materialise into tangible benefits for startups, driving innovation and economic growth.

(Host: Kurmanath K V, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar)

About the State of the Economy Podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this podcast, businessline’s Shishir Sinha is joined by Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA), who provides a quick take on the interim Budget. The discussion revolves around crucial aspects such as the fiscal deficit, capital expenditure (capex), private sector investment, state capex, and high-frequency economic indicators. 

Nayar commends the government's lower fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio for FY24 and FY25, expressing pleasant surprise at the larger-than-expected capex, particularly for FY25. However, she raises concerns about the ambitious capex target of ₹11.1 trillion for FY25, speculating that the monsoon season and delayed budget presentation might hinder its realization.

The conversation shifts to private sector investment, where Nayar notes a moderate growth in capacity expansion plans across various sectors. She anticipates sustained but cautious private sector capex in the coming quarters. 

Regarding state government capex, Nayar acknowledges healthy growth for FY24 but suggests that the full capex target might be missed. 

The discussion then delves into high-frequency economic indicators, including the exuberant Services PMI and robust GST collections. Nayar cautiously discusses the possibility of GST rate rationalisation and provides insights into inflation expectations, emphasising the need for distributed rainfall to avoid spikes in perishable prices.

Nayar concludes by addressing GDP growth projections for FY25, offering a more conservative estimate of 6.2 per cent, citing uncertainties related to agricultural output, state capex timing, and export growth.

(Host: Shishir Sinha, Producer: Nabodita Ganguly, Amitha Rajkumar)

About the State of the Economy Podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this month’s SOE podcast on Personal Finance, Mr Abhijit Roy, CEO and co-founder of GoldenPi, one of India’s largest online bond aggregators, speaks to Aarati Krishnan of Business line on the outlook for interest rates and the opportunities for debt investors. Mr Roy is an IIT Kharagpur and IIM Kolkata alumnus with 15 years of global market experience.

Asked about the outlook for policy rates in India, now that the Monetary Policy Committee is on a long pause, Mr Roy said that he expects rates to start their decline in the latter half of the year, on the back of stable inflation and the economy. He expects the downward move to materialise post elections, perhaps post September 2024.

On whether US yield movements are relevant to Indian investors, he observed that they are certainly a big factor. Foreign investor allocations to bonds play a big role in determining yield movements. Mr Roy believes that India has turned an attractive destination for foreign investors because of the growing economy and stable financial markets.

He expects the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan GBI EM Index to further contribute to the fall in interest rates in India, as global portfolio flows into the specified bonds could accelerate this year. He expects $30-50 billion of flows into the specified Freely Accessible Route government bonds as a result of this inclusion. In the long run, he sees these flows making it easier for the Indian government to conclude its market borrowings.

On whether investors in bonds should consider investing in NCDs for shorter tenors or look to lock into NCDs with 4-5 year terms, he was of the view that this call should depend both on the investor’s holding period and the nature of the entity issuing NCDs. For lower-rated issuers, he would personally prefer to take on lower duration risk and stick to shorter tenors. For longer tenors, he prefers AAA rated issuers or government bonds, which are also offering attractive yields currently. He cautions that investors should not take on too much duration risk if they cannot adhere to a long holding period.

He however believes that this is a good time for regular income seekers such as retirees to lock into long-tenure NCDs from high quality issuers, for stable income. He points out that GoldenPi offers opportunities for regular income seekers to buy government securities from the secondary market for amounts as low as Rs 100. GoldenPi charges no commission on g-sec investments and offers specific tranches of g-secs with high liquidity on the platform.

Commending SEBI for doing a creditable job on attempts to develop the Indian bond market, he sees proposed changes to regulations, such as the Rs 10000 ticket size for privately placed bonds, sharply expanding retail interest in the NCD market. NCDs were earlier considered an option mainly for high net worth investors, with a minimum ticket size of Rs 10 lakh for private placements. But successive reductions in this ticket size, to Rs 1 lakh last year and now to Rs 10000 (if the SEBI proposal goes through) will make NCDs a fixed income product easily accessible to retail investors.

(Host: Aarati Krishnan, Producer: Amitha Rajkumar)

About the State of the Economy Podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this state of the Economy Podcast, Hamsini Karthik and Prashant Joshi, the Managing Director and Head of Consumer Banking at DBS Bank India, and Pushan Sharma, Director of Research at CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics discuss a groundbreaking report on how women are shaping the financial landscape. 

The podcast explores the motivations behind the report, emphasising the growing significance of understanding women's financial behavior in the changing economic landscape. 

Hamsini talks about the myths surrounding women and finance. Prashant and Pushan share insights into the factors that prompted the study, such as the evolving role of women in the workforce. They debunk stereotypes and shed light on the reality that women are actively involved in long-term family decisions, challenging traditional notions about financial dependence. 

The discussion also looks at the adoption of credit cards among women, uncovering surprising trends across different metro cities. 

The podcast also addresses women's investment choices, from traditional avenues like fixed deposits and savings accounts to emerging interests in cryptocurrencies. Prashant and Pushan discuss the gender-neutral nature of risk communication and how banks tailor their wealth management strategies based on individual preferences and risk profiles. 

In the final segment, the podcast explores regional differences in financial behaviour, with a spotlight on Kolkata's unique patterns. The guests emphasize the need for geographic tailoring of conversations and products, acknowledging the diversity in financial preferences across different cities. 

(Host: Hamsini Karthik, Producers: Nabodita Ganguly, Anjana P V, Siddharth MC)