businessline's State of the Economy Podcast

In this episode of State of the Economy Podcast, Prasenjit K Basu, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, talks to Lokeshwarri SK on the issue of soaring global inflation rates. While the world grappled with high inflation in 2022, particularly with the U.S. CPI reaching 9% and crossing the 10% mark in the EU and UK, Basu points out that such levels of inflation were unheard of in the developed world for the past three decades. 

Basu identifies the primary culprit as monetary factors, particularly rapid money supply growth in the United States, which surged in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This monetary expansion was further exacerbated by substantial fiscal stimulus packages in late 2020 and early 2021, which fueled consumption. 

Comparing this episode to historical instances of high inflation, Basu mentions that in the early 1980s, the developed world experienced double-digit inflation. He also discusses supply-side constraints, like those caused by the oil price shocks of the 1970s, but emphasises that this time, monetary factors played a more significant role. 

Basu highlights the importance of central banks monitoring monetary aggregates and acknowledges that central banks have largely shifted their focus from money supply growth in recent years, a mistake in his view. He explains that the rapid money supply growth in the U.S. from 2020 to 2022 was unparalleled in the last 80 years, contributing significantly to the current inflationary episode. 

As central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve grapple with inflation well above their targeted rates, they are tightening monetary policy to control it. Basu also notes the impact of fiscal policy, with the U.S. running a significant fiscal deficit, contributing to the inflationary pressure. In conclusion, while the central banks prioritise inflation containment, the impact on economic growth remains a significant concern, especially with fiscal policies adding to the mix. 

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The Indian IT services industry is currently facing macroeconomic headwinds, brought on mostly by the slowdown globally. What is the outlook for the sector? In this episode of "State of the Economy" podcast, Haripriya Sureban talks to Kumar Rakesh, Analyst at BNP Paribas, to understand the challenges and potential opportunities for the Indian IT services industry.

In the podcast, Kumar Rakesh explains why the IT industry's growth has moderated over the past year and how the current downturn is distinct from previous cycles. He also explains the path to recovery.

Kumar also explains how the sector's growth moderation is different this time. In the past, during economic downturns, companies reduced their investments to address profitability concerns resulting from rising interest rates. He notes that corporations in the US are currently less stressed about interest rate hikes as they have significantly reduced their debt burdens over the last decade.

He notes that manufacturing industries have not cut their IT spending, indicating a decoupling of tech spending from end-market performance. This shift, he adds, shows how IT spending is becoming more strategic and long-term focused.

When asked about specific companies, Kumar highlights that Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and HCL Technologies are likely to perform well. TCS excels in cost optimisation deals, while HCL's capabilities in the cloud space position it well to benefit from the ongoing trend of long-term technology investments.

Generative AI's role in generating revenue is also discussed in the podcast. Kumar explains that enterprises are currently in the exploratory stage, trying to understand how to best utilise generative AI tools. He believes that generative AI could become a meaningful contributor to revenue when companies transition from exploration to implementation.

In this episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, Subramani Ra Mancombu and Arun Raste, MD and CEO of NCDEX Commodity Exchange, discuss the exchange’s progress in futures trading and derivatives, as well as its approach to enhancing returns for farmers.

NCDEX has seen increasing interest in futures trading and derivative products, with agri commodities like spices and guar performing well due to international price trends. The CEO highlighted the exchange’s role in attracting new participants, including corporate houses previously focused on other commodities.

Raste emphasised the potential of options trading as a complementary tool to minimum support prices (MSP) for farmers. He explained that options provide a form of price insurance, ensuring farmers receive a predetermined price regardless of market fluctuations. This approach allows farmers to manage risk and benefit from potential price increases. He also talked about the need for government support and private sector involvement in promoting options trading among farmers, alleviating the burden of MSP subsidies.

Regarding farmer participation, Raste discussed initial challenges and the role of Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) in facilitating access to options trading. He mentioned that while some FPOs initially required subsidies to participate, a growing number are now willing to engage without financial support. State initiatives in Maharashtra and discussions with NABARD (National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development) indicate increasing interest in options trading at the regional level.

Looking ahead, NCDEX is planning to introduce new products pending regulatory approval. Proposed additions include sunflower oil and carbon credits contracts, expanding the range of trading options available on the exchange. The CEO expressed optimism about the potential benefits of these innovations for both farmers and the broader agricultural sector.

Listen to the podcast to know more about the NCDEX Commodity Exchange’s efforts to promote futures trading, derivatives, and options trading to benefit farmers and enhance the agricultural sector’s resilience.

(Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu, Producers: J Jayapriyanka, Siddharth MC)

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About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

The emergence of public tech platforms is slowly transforming the landscape of financial services and lending in India. In this State of the Economy podcast, Hamsini Karthik speaks to Madhusudan Ekambaram, CEO, Kreditbee, on the future of public tech platforms.

Ekambaram highlighted in the podcast that the critical role this platform plays is in addressing the challenges of financial inclusion. In regions beyond major urban centers, these platforms act as a bridge by allowing lenders to assess creditworthiness using a wide range of alternative data points. This approach is instrumental in serving the middle class and individuals lacking robust credit histories. Unlike a traditional lending platform, it isn't a direct lender itself but rather a catalyst that empowers lenders to make informed credit decisions. Public tech platforms tap into a comprehensive database of customer data, including credit history, transaction records, and property details.

The platform's impact on customer engagement and underwriting is profound. By providing access to real-time data, it streamlines the decision-making process, reducing turnaround times and enhancing the accuracy of risk assessment. This is particularly pertinent in scenarios like evaluating secured loans, where property details and other critical information can be promptly accessed.

While the concept is still in its early stages, Ekambaram emphasises that its potential for positive change is significant. Just as the adoption of digital banking services, Aadhaar, and UPI has transformed the sector over the years, these platforms offer a promising pathway to further financial inclusion, improved underwriting, and better customer experiences. As the platform continues to evolve and more players integrate with it, it holds the promise of democratising access to credit and ushering in a new era of collaborative financial innovation.

Listen to the podcast now!

(Host: Hamsini Karthik, Producers: Anjana PV, Jayapriyanka J)

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About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In the latest episode of the State of the Economy podcast, Rishi Ranjan Kala is joined by Mourya Sunkavalli, Founder & MD, Altmin, a startup focused on battery materials. Altmin has established the country’s first facility for manufacturing cathode active materials (CAM), a crucial component in lithium-ion batteries. The podcast delves into the significance of CAM in the battery value chain, as well as India’s role in global battery production.

With the drive towards clean energy, battery storage has become pivotal. Altmin has partnered with the International Advanced Research Center for Powdered Metallurgy and New Materials to set up a CAM production facility in Hyderabad. This collaboration, along with international partnerships, underscores the importance of technology in bolstering India’s battery ecosystem.

The CAM licensing rests exclusively with Altmin on an international scale, highlighting the company’s pioneering efforts. Maurya discusses the challenges of sourcing battery materials, notably lithium, which is largely controlled by China due to its control over raw materials and processing. Altmin aims to address this dependency by establishing refining units in mineral-rich countries, a move that would enhance India’s lithium security and streamline the supply chain.

Amidst these challenges, Altmin’s journey showcases India’s efforts to secure critical battery materials domestically. The company’s focus on cathode materials, particularly LFP (lithium iron phosphate), aligns with the evolving market trends. Tesla’s shift to LFP and the growing awareness of thermal stability benefits have fueled interest in Altmin’s approach.

The podcast conversation also touches upon India’s strides in recycling battery materials, with various companies working to establish recycling plants. Moreover, the government’s support, including initiatives like the advanced cell chemistry PLI, aims to nurture a robust battery ecosystem.

Listen in!

(Host: Rishi Ranjan Kala, Producer: Jayapriyanka J)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

The Indian stock market has seen volatility since peaking in July. Will this trend continue? In this episode of businessline’s “State of the Economy” podcast, we take a look at the Indian stock markets. businessline’s Parvatha Vardhini C talks to Krishna Kumar Karwa, Managing Director, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, about the markets’ current state and future trajectory.

Karwa provides insight into the key factors contributing to indecision among investors and how long it might continue. He notes that between March and July, Nifty, small cap, and mid cap indices experienced significant gains. Robust inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) further fuelled the rally. However, a recent change in FPI inflows has affected market dynamics, causing a shift in sectoral performance.

He notes that sectors like pharma, IT, media, and realty picking up momentum. He advises investors to focus on individual stock prospects rather than being overly concerned about Nifty’s short-term movements.

In the podcast, Parvatha Vardhini and Karwa analyse the Q1 results of Indian companies. They decode how profits are growing strongly even though revenue growth is in the mid-single digits and talk on the earnings prospects of corporate India for the rest of this fiscal year. They discuss how inflation and uneven monsoons will impact the economy and the markets.

They also talk on how external factors like rising US treasury yields and Chinese slowdown could impact the Indian equity markets and how domestic investors, SIP inflows, and domestic institutional ownership can play a balancing factor in market dynamics.

(Host: Parvatha Vardhini C; Producers: V Nivedita, Nabodita Ganguly)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

The Centre has decided to construct an international container transshipment port at Great Nicobar Island, at a cost of approximately RS. 41,000 crore. In this State of the Economy Podcast, businessline’s T E Raja Simhan speaks to Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, Senior Director and Global Head of Transport, Logistics and Mobility, CRISIL, about the Great Nicobar Island project and the way forward for the logistics sector. 

Padmanabhan explains the vital role of transshipment in India's aspirations to become a $ 5 trillion economy.

He emphasises the importance of optimising logistics and reducing costs for trade, underscoring the strategic need for a transshipment port to facilitate these goals. The speaker also mentions the growing size of container ships, highlighting how larger vessels can significantly reduce transportation costs.

Padmanabhan acknowledges challenges such as environmental concerns, funding requirements for a greenfield project, skill development, and ecological impact. He sees the Nicobar Island project as a long-term endeavour, spanning a decade or more, to ensure it aligns with India's evolving economic landscape.

He underscores the geopolitical importance of securing trade routes and suggests that multiple ports will serve different shipping lines, each potentially adopting a specific port for their operations.

Jagannarayan analyses the feasibility of generating substantial container traffic for the new port, suggesting a gradual increase in capacity based on India's economic growth trajectory. He discusses the potential for a variety of cargo types, such as bulk and liquid, while emphasising that containers remain the primary focus due to their cost-saving and trade-securing advantages. He discusses the transformative potential of the port and sees it contributing to cost reduction, trade security, and increased containerisation of cargo. Listen to the podcast!  

(Host: T E Raja Simhan, Producers: Anjana PV & Siddharth MC)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

India’s exports have fallen over the past six months, particularly in sectors like petroleum, gems and jewelry, engineering products, and chemicals. What are the reasons for this decline? In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Amiti Sen speaks to Arun Kumar Garodia, Chairman, Engineering Export Promotion Council of India (EEPC), to understand the challenging landscape of India’s export sector.

Garodia suggests that this decline is due to the slump to a range of global challenges, such as the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China’s economy, and the cost-of-living crisis. He highlights how these factors have disrupted international trade patterns, leading to weakened global demand and exposing vulnerabilities in the global trading system.

He stresses the need to diversify markets to mitigate risks and reduce reliance on traditional trade partners. He added that negotiations for free trade agreements (FTAs) with various regions, including Africa and Latin America, as steps towards this diversification. Additionally, he discusses India’s negotiations for FTAs with significant markets like the European Union, the UK, and Canada, which could boost demand and exports.

The discussion also explores the opportunity presented by China’s economic challenges, with a “China Plus One” strategy emerging as a global trend. Goradia explains that India should capitalise on this strategy by building its capacity, expanding supply chains, and becoming a reliable alternative to China in global trade. Garodia also explains how the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism could impact trade with the region.

Listen to the podcast to know more about the factors impacting India’s exports and the strategies that India can use to navigate these challenges.

(Host: Amiti Sen, Producers: J Jayapriyanka, Anjana)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups.

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Dalip Singh is joined by Sheel Vardhan Singh, the Director General (DG) of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), who discusses emerging challenges to industrial and aviation security. While talking about the importance of a well-defined role for various organisations within the transport ecosystem, the DG was of the view that there is a need for a seamlessly integrated transport ecosystem where all verticals collaborate for comprehensive security, ensuring efficiency and effectiveness. 

The discussion covers various aspects of security provided by CISF, its scope of services, and its vision for the future. The DG elaborates on the CISF's role in safeguarding industrial installations, airports, metro systems, and more, emphasising the force's contribution to economic development and national security. He outlines the historical background of the CISF, which originated in 1969 after a fire incident, and highlights its growth to become a force of 1,80,000 personnel. 

Read: Troop Comforts Limited bags 5,000 snow boots order for Nepal armed police forces

The conversation also delves into the revenue model of the CISF. It involves providing security and consulting services to private industries and institutions, generating income based on a fixed scale set by the Ministry of Home Affairs. The fees paid by clients go to the consolidated fund of India, not CISF directly. CISF recoups around 85 per cent of its expenditures through this method. 

Discussing emerging threats, the conversation also touches on the integration of technology, including drones and cybersecurity. The DG explains how CISF is equipped to handle these challenges and collaborate with other agencies to ensure preparedness and an effective response. 

When questioned about the CISF's role in fire safety, especially in high-rise buildings and changing urban landscapes, the DG emphasises the importance of training and upskilling and mentions initiatives to enhance fire safety standards across cities.  

Read: Big revenue boost from FY25 on IAF’s Tejas order: HAL chief

The DG also highlights the importance of stress management within the force and how the CISF takes initiatives like yoga and digital detox to improve the mental well-being of personnel. The DG talks about the value of human life and the importance of not compromising security for efficiency.  

Regarding future plans, the DG discusses the possibility of introducing robotic dogs for security purposes and underlines the significance of staying adaptable to evolving security challenges.  

The podcast concludes by discussing the integration of technology, training, and disaster management in CISF's operations. The DG mentions that security is a paramount concern, especially in the face of emerging threats, and highlights CISF's role in enhancing national security and economic development. Listen in.  

(Host: Dalip Singh, Producer: Nabodita Ganguly)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, Jyoti Datta talks to Dr. Sharad Kumar Agarwal, National President, Indian Medical Association (IMA). The podcast focuses on the recent directive by the Indian government that mandates doctors to prescribe medicines using only generic names. Dr. Agrawal explains the IMA’s perspective on this directive, citing concerns about patient safety, quality control, and the complexities of medical decision-making.

He emphasises that while the IMA is not against the idea of rational prescription and cost-effectiveness, the current lack of stringent quality control in the production and distribution of generic medicines raises significant concerns. Dr.Agrawal highlights the need for a robust infrastructure to ensure that generic medicines are of consistent quality and efficacy. Additionally, he raises questions about the variation in pricing for medicines with similar compositions and advocates for a standardised pricing model for both branded and generic drugs.

The conversation also explores the potential implications of the generic prescription directive on patient safety, doctor-patient trust, and the prevalence of violence against healthcare professionals. He expresses the IMA’s concerns about the adverse consequences of this directive, particularly in critical care scenarios where quick decision-making is important.

Dr.Agarwal stresses the importance of maintaining patient safety and quality healthcare. He advocates for a collaborative approach between the medical community and the government to address these concerns and find a balanced solution to ensure affordable medicines without compromising on quality.

Listen in!

(Host: Shishir Sinha, Producers: Anjana PV, V Nivedita)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups