businessline's State of the Economy Podcast

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Subramani Ra Mancombu talks to Suhas Baxi, Co-founder & CEO, BiofuelCircle, about the critical role that biomass plays in India's energy transition and the challenges in harnessing bioenergy resources. 

The podcast also touches on the larger context of biofuels in India, including the government’s initiatives to blend ethanol with petrol and the use of biomass in power generation. Suhas is optimistic about the future, emphasizing the country’s potential as a global leader in biofuels and bio-based materials, as well as its strong policy framework and investments in technology. 

The discussion also covers the government’s initiatives, such as ethanol blending and biomass co-firing with coal, and how these efforts are contributing to India’s biofuel growth. The introduction of compressed bio-gas projects and sustainable aviation fuel are additional avenues Baxi highlights for biomass utilisation. 

Baxi also explains how Biofuel Circle's "biomass bank" program is working to provide farmers with financial benefits for supplying agricultural waste, turning them into active participants in the biomass ecosystem. The program not only helps reduce stubble burning but also empowers rural communities by creating additional income streams for local tractor drivers and small businesses. 

Baxi believes that biomass has the potential to not only contribute to biofuel production but also revolutionise other industries through innovative applications like biochar and bioplastics. 

(Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu Producers : Amitha Rajkumar )

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of Economy Podcast, businessline's Janaki Krishnan speaks with Bhavesh Shah , Managing Director, and Head - Investment Banking of Equirus Group. In this episode , Shah breaks down the complexities of the economic landscape with real-world insights and thought-provoking discussions. 

The episode starts with discussing pressing economic issues—from private equity’s role in India’s growth, to the shifting dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in a fluctuating market. Shah talks about how large firms and smaller startups navigate challenges in securing funding, the impact of global events on business, and what trends are likely to define the coming years.  

Shah addresses the challenges faced by both larger and smaller private equity firms. He discusses how large firms like Blackstone are successfully raising funds, while smaller entities are facing difficulties due to a competitive market environment. Despite these challenges, Shah points out that younger professionals in the industry are still optimistic and entrepreneurial, pushing forward with fresh perspectives. 

On the topic of valuations, Shah suggests that the growth of public markets may be spilling over into the private market, leading to inflated valuations that could make some deals harder to close. This situation is contributing to a more cautious approach to private equity investments, as firms reassess the potential returns and risks of certain deals. 

Looking ahead, Shah predicts that sectors such as consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare will continue to attract private equity interest, particularly as India’s middle class grows and demands more products and services. However, he also cautions that competition in these sectors will intensify, and firms will need to strategically navigate these challenges to achieve long-term success. 

The episode also touches on the outlook for M&A deals, where he expresses optimism that activity will pick up in the coming year, despite the current slow pace. He believes that strategic planning and long-term vision will be key for firms involved in M&A transactions, and that new opportunities will arise in the near future. 

 (Host: Janaki Krishnan Producers : Rowan Barnett , Prethicshaa Gurumoorthy )

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this State of the Economy Year-End Podcast, businessline’s K Ram Kumar is joined by Karthik Srinivasan, Senior Vice President and Group Head of Financial Sector Ratings at ICRA, to discuss the current state of the Indian banking sector, its performance over the past year, and expectations for the upcoming financial year. 

Against the backdrop of a slowing economy and a revision in the RBI’s GDP growth forecast, the banking sector faces challenges, particularly with regard to credit growth and liquidity. 

"Credit growth expectations for FY25 are likely to be revised closer to 10.5% to 11% due to a deceleration in key segments like retail and services," notes Karthik Srinivasan. He explains that a slowdown in these important sectors would likely temper overall credit growth in the coming year. 

However, Srinivasan adds that despite this moderation, banks are "pretty well capitalised" and should be able to meet credit demand over the next 12-24 months without the need for immediate capital raises. He also points out that public sector banks might still be required to raise capital due to government shareholding regulations. 

The discussion also touched on the impact of the RBI’s measures, such as increasing risk weights on unsecured consumer credit and bank credit to non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). "The credit growth to the NBFC sector has slowed quite significantly," points out Srinivasan, with year-on-year growth dropping to just 6% in October 2023. He further highlights that while banks had been managing deposit rates to bridge the credit-deposit gap, "margins for banks and, for that matter, even NBFCs, are expected to shrink" in the coming months due to increased competition for deposits and pressure from lower lending rates. 

Looking ahead to FY25, Srinivasan indicates "this year’s estimates of about 10.5% to 11% on credit growth and possibly around 11% on deposits are likely to remain similar next year," suggesting that the banking sector would experience moderate growth. He also acknowledges that "stress is building up" in certain sectors, particularly in retail and SME portfolios, but remains confident that the banking system is robust enough to absorb these challenges. 

Srinivasan concludes that the outlook for FY25 remains steady, with manageable risks, as banks are well-positioned to navigate potential headwinds. 

Listen in!

(Host: K Ram Kumar, Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Amiti Sen talks to Biswajit Dhar, former Professor, JNU, and Distinguished Professor, Council for Social Development, about the dynamic challenges and opportunities shaping India’s trade landscape as 2024 draws to a close. The discussion navigates through geopolitical turbulence, export performance, and the outlook for 2025. 

Dhar analyses India’s export resilience despite global uncertainties, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the West Asia crisis. While noting impressive export growth in sectors during October, he emphasises the patchy performance across industries. He highlights the underwhelming recovery of India’s garment sector, especially in light of opportunities presented by economic disruptions in Bangladesh. 

The conversation also turns to the implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, which are poised to impact global trade. Dhar emphasises the potential benefits of a "China Plus One" strategy, particularly in electronics, but warns of challenges due to domestic logistical bottlenecks and behind-the-border trade barriers. He stresses the importance of government and industry collaboration to capitalise on emerging opportunities. 

The podcast also reflects on the significance of India leveraging local manufacturing capabilities and expanding its footprint in global markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. The conversation also touches on the role of global agencies and logistics companies in predicting a positive trade trajectory for 2025. 

(Host: Amiti Sen Producer: Amitha Rajkumar)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of Economy Podcast, businessline's  Shishir Kumar Sinha speaks with Sonal Varma, Managing Director and Chief Economist at Nomura, who shares her expert analysis on India’s economic landscape and insights on navigating the complexities of India’s economic recovery and policy challenges. 

The episode starts with Varma discussing some of the major disappointments of 2024, including the persistent challenge of stagflation and the growing concern around slowing consumption. While pent-up demand from the pandemic years fueled consumption in recent times, we’re now seeing a shift as growth in consumer credit and income levels slow, leading to a moderation in consumption patterns. 

Varma talks about the recovery in high-frequency indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and manufacturing growth from October onwards. Despite some concerns about the sustainability of the growth in retail demand, the discussion offers a balanced outlook on the prospects for India’s GDP in fiscal year 2025, with expectations of 6% growth, amid mixed economic indicators. 

As India approaches the 2025 Union Budget, the episode shifts to discuss how fiscal policy could help address the slowdown in consumption. With the government’s emphasis on capital expenditure (CapEx), Varma suggests that while the government has significantly increased its CapEx to GDP ratio in recent years, the key challenge will be how to maintain the momentum without overstretching fiscal targets. 

The conversation also touches on the external economic environment, with particular attention on the implications of the Trump administration taking office in 2025. The discussion concludes with Varma’s forecast for 2025, highlighting both risks—such as the potential for slower-than-expected growth—and positive developments, including potential disinflation due to lower commodity prices. 

(Host: Shishir Kumar Sinha Producer: Prethicshaa Gurumoorthy)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of Economy Podcast, businessline's  Subramani Ra Mancombhu speaks with Mayur Karmarkar, Managing Director of the International Copper Association India.  In this episode, we focus on the rapidly growing demand for copper in India, driven by several key sectors including construction, infrastructure, and the electrification of transportation. 

The episode starts with discussing the current trends in copper demand. Karmarkar talks about how copper is playing an essential role in India’s economic development, particularly in the post-pandemic era, where demand has surged by 21% between 2021 and 2024. He explains how sectors such as building construction, industrialisation, and power generation are significantly contributing to this growth. 

Karmarkar talks about the challenges and opportunities within the copper supply chain, by refining copper scrap rather than simply melting it, India could enhance its domestic copper supply and reduce its reliance on imports. 

With the growing focus on electric vehicles and the greening of the economy, copper is becoming an essential component for future growth. He discusses how this demand will continue to rise, especially with India’s efforts to modernise its infrastructure and build a greener economy. 

The episode also touches on the role of scrap copper, the potential for new smelting capacities in India, and how future trade dynamics might impact the supply and demand landscape. As the country looks towards 2025 and beyond, Karmarkar offers his perspective on the projected growth in copper demand and how the industry is preparing to meet these needs. 

(Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu Producer: Prethicshaa Gurumoorthy)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of Economy Podcast, businessline's Rishi Ranjan Kala speaks with Prashanth Nutula, Partner, Deloitte India. He discusses the future of SAF(Sustainable Aviation Fuel) in India, its growth prospects, and its role in decarbonising the aviation industry. He highlights Deloitte India's latest report, which suggests that India could produce 8 to 10 million tons of SAF annually by 2039-2040, requiring investments of around $70-85 billion. With demand projected to rise globally, India may even emerge as a leading SAF exporter, surpassing its domestic needs for SAF blending. 

The episode starts with Nutula highlighting the significant opportunity for India to meet both its own SAF needs and export substantial quantities, especially given the country's agricultural surplus and its strategic location near key international markets like the Middle East and Singapore. 

Nutula addresses the challenges, including early-stage feedstock conversion technology and the logistical issues involved in collecting and storing agricultural residues. Nutula stresses the importance of robust infrastructure, policy support, and incentives for farmers and companies to scale SAF production. He believes that with technological advancements and clear government roadmaps, India can overcome these hurdles and drive growth in the biofuel sector. 

The episode also touches on India’s role in meeting global SAF mandates, such as the CORSIA, which will become mandatory for Indian airlines in 2027. With initial blending targets of 1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028, Nutula suggests that a long-term strategy will be needed to scale production, benefiting both the aviation sector and Indian farmers by increasing their income through agricultural residues. 

(Host: Rishi Ranjan Kala, Producer: Prethicshaa )

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of Economy Podcast, businessline's Dalip Singh speaks with Lt Gen AK Bhatt (Retd), Director General of the Indian Space Association (ISpA), who shares valuable insights into India's evolving space defence strategies. With the militarisation of space accelerating globally, General Bhatt discusses how space is no longer just a domain for peaceful exploration but a vital strategic asset for national security. 

The episode starts with how nations are increasingly using space for military purposes, such as satellite communication, intelligence gathering, surveillance, and navigation. General Bhatt also addresses India's space defence roadmap, emphasising the government's strategic investments, including satellite-based surveillance programs and growing collaboration with the private sector.  

The discussion touches on the competition with global powers, particularly China. “China is aspiring not to compete in space with India, but to compete with USA and their concerns for ASR, for communication, for navigation are global. They want to protect and have visibility in the first chain of islands and 2nd chain of islands“ 

General Bhatt emphasises the importance of space situational awareness (SSA), a system that tracks satellites and debris to prevent accidents and potential threats from adversarial actions. This growing need for global cooperation in space defence, as highlighted by Bhatt, is crucial for maintaining space security. 

General Bhatt goes on to explain how the new form of space warfare can disrupt communication systems and affect the overall operational integrity of a nation's space infrastructure. General Bhatt points out a critical shift : Space warfare is no longer confined to government-controlled entities, and private players have become essential in providing support during conflicts.  

In conclusion, General Bhatt stresses the importance of a diversified approach to space defence. India is making strides in this area by expanding its satellite constellations and developing non-kinetic weapons for space protection. 

(Host: Dalip Singh, Producer: Prethicshaa Gurumoorthy)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India's economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.

In this episode of the State of the Economy podcast, businessline’s Shishir Sinha talks to Upasna Bhardwaj , Chief Economist with Kotak Mahindra Bank, discussing recent economic data and the broader economic outlook for India. The conversation centers around some key high-frequency economic indicators, such as the GDP growth rate, GST collections, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and inflation figures. 

The podcast begins with Bhardwaj diving into the surprising GDP growth number for Q2, which came in at 5.4%, well below expectations. She explains that the GDP slowdown is primarily driven by a weak industrial sector, with manufacturing and mining showing significant weakness. While consumption demand has also been subdued, some high-frequency data for October and early November suggest a potential slight pickup, likely due to the festive period.  

However, Bhardwaj emphasises that a broader recovery remains uncertain, with both global demand and domestic factors such as weak capital spending and regulatory constraints on lending posing challenges. 

The conversation then shifts to other economic indicators like GST collections, which showed an 8.5% year-on-year growth in November, but with a monthly decline, likely due to fewer working days during the festival season. Despite some moderation, Bhardwaj notes that GST growth is now in line with nominal GDP growth, indicating that there is no significant disparity between these two indicators. 

The discussion also touches on inflation, with Bhardwaj forecasting a retail inflation rate of around 5.7% for the upcoming month. She explains that this is higher than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) earlier projections, which could influence their upcoming policy decisions. She suggests that the possibility of an interest rate cut, previously expected only in the next fiscal year, might be brought forward to February, especially as the RBI faces a challenging trilemma involving inflation, growth, and liquidity concerns. 

In this episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, businessline’s Subramani Ra Mancombu talks to Akshay Gupta, Head of Bulk Export at KRBL, as they dive into the evolving landscape of India’s rice industry.  

The podcast begins with a look back at the challenges faced by the Indian rice industry over the past few years, primarily due to weather disruptions that impacted rice production. In response, the Indian government-imposed export restrictions in 2022 and 2023, which included bans on certain rice varieties and the introduction of export duties. These measures were aimed at controlling food inflation but also led to a significant decline in exports. 

Gupta discusses the impact of these developments on the agricultural community, particularly rice farmers. With the easing of export restrictions, farmers, especially those cultivating basmati rice varieties like 1509, are benefiting from better market conditions and higher prices. The podcast also touches on the effects of these policy changes on non-basmati rice exports, where previous restrictions have been removed, except for the export ban on 100% broken rice. 

The conversation also delves into the crop dynamics for the current season. Gupta explains how the area under rice cultivation has increased by 10-15% due to favorable weather conditions, which is expected to continue into the rabi season. This growth in production is providing more opportunities for farmers to sell their rice, both in domestic markets and for export. 

Gupta shares his perspective on the future of India’s rice industry, highlighting the need for continued government support in areas such as research on high-yielding rice varieties. He argues that improved research and development could significantly increase yields and make India more competitive globally.  

(Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu Producer: Amitha Rajkumar)

About the State of the Economy podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders.