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In this episode of The WeatherPod, hosts Alan and David meet Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist and Principal Research Fellow of the UK Met Office, to discuss the implications of 'impact-based forecasting' for the future of weather forecasting and of the weather forecaster.

Paul has a number of years experience in meteorology and is now recognized nationally and internationally as an authority in the field of operational meteorology.

As Principal Fellow, Paul will ensure the Met Office’s professional and cultural approach to weather forecasting is globally recognized and to head a respected and valuable operational meteorological profession. He will spearhead the innovation and use of new scientific, technological, and operational techniques to deliver impact and benefit to a wide range of customers. Paul will also be the external figurehead for all things to do with the meteorological profession be this with stakeholders or key customers.

Paul was a Chief Forecaster in 2003 before being appointed as the Chief Hydrometeorologist and Deputy Head of the Flood Forecasting Center in 2008. From 2010, he created the Met Office’s Hazards Center and was the founder and inaugural Chair of the Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) comprising a number of partner agencies, government departments and the Cabinet Office.

Paul was the lead author to WMO’s Multi-Hazard Impact Based Forecasting and Risk Based Warnings guidelines in his capacity as WMO’s IMPACT task team chair. Paul later became UK representative on the WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) OPAG Management group for GDPFS ensuring the flow of data and advice is cascaded between global, regional, and national systems.

Theme music by John Cockram

In this episode of The WeatherPod hosts David and Alan talk to Tim Palmer to explore some of the thoughts developed in his new book 'The Primacy of Doubt' (Basic Books) and their potential implications for weather forecasting.

About the guest

Tim is an eminent research scientist in weather and climate prediction and predictability. He has worked at the Met Office, at ECMWF and now is a Professor of Physics at the University of Oxford.

He is well known as an architect of ensemble weather prediction, but he is a polymath with interests across fundamental physics and maths. In his book 'The Primacy of Doubt' Tim discusses how incorporating uncertainty appropriately in the form of (random) noise into simulations and models of a range of natural phenomena, including weather and climate, is fundamental to improving the predictions of future behavior, i.e. the weather forecast.

Tim is also a keen musician. See:

Theme music by John Cockram