Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Friday, January 10, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

A recent report by the State Bank of India has sparked widespread debate with its claim of a significant reduction in India’s poverty levels. The report suggests rural poverty fell sharply from 25.7% in 2011-12 to just 4.86% in 2023-24, alongside a notable decline in urban poverty. It attributes this dramatic improvement to the success of government initiatives, including direct cash transfers and infrastructure development. However, as Nandita Venkatesan writes, the methodology behind these figures has come under scrutiny. Critics argue that the report’s approach—adjusting old poverty lines for inflation to measure current poverty—fails to account for shifts in consumption patterns and changes in survey methodologies over the past decade, potentially skewing the conclusions.

India’s stock market is bracing for heightened volatility as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) adopt their most cautious stance in seven months. As of January 8, FPIs’ combined net short positions on Nifty and Bank Nifty futures surged to 238,321 contracts, the highest level since June, according to data from IndiaCharts and the NSE. This sharp increase in bearish bets reflects growing concerns over both domestic and global economic uncertainties, reports Ram Sahgal. FPIs have been consistently shorting Indian markets, driven partly by India’s revised economic growth forecast of 6.4% for FY25, a four-year low and slightly below the Reserve Bank of India’s projection of 6.6%. Adding to the unease is the timing, with Donald Trump’s imminent inauguration as US President stoking fears of tariff wars and stricter immigration policies—both of which could disrupt the global economic landscape.

As 2025 unfolds, identifying the Indian sectors poised to lead the charge can feel like a guessing game. To cut through the uncertainty, Mint’s Abhishek Mukherjee sought insights from three major AI chatbots: OpenAI's ChatGPT, Elon Musk's Grok, and Google's Gemini 2.0. While each emphasized the speculative nature of market predictions—shaped by dynamic factors like economic policies and global events—their perspectives offer intriguing takeaways. Read today’s Long Story to see what these AI models foresee for the markets.

The Maha Kumbh Mela, returning after 144 years and expected to draw millions to Uttar Pradesh, has become a prime target for cybercriminals. Experts from Aon, mFilterIt, and Quick Heal warn of a surge in sophisticated cyberattacks aimed at stealing personal and payment information. Scammers are leveraging the event's vast digital footprint, creating fake websites and using platforms like WhatsApp to trick pilgrims into paying for fraudulent services. In response, the Uttar Pradesh government and police are stepping up cybersecurity measures, report Pratishtha Bagai and Devina Sengupta. A dedicated cyber police station has been established in Prayagraj, and authorities are closely monitoring and securing online platforms to safeguard attendees from digital threats.

The sudden passing of Amit Banerji, founder of Table Space, from cardiac arrest has sent shockwaves through the startup community, highlighting the toll of intense pressure and poor work-life balance in the industry. Banerji’s death is the second such incident in a month, sparking renewed concern about the health and work habits of startup founders. Industry leaders, including Kunal Bahl of Titan Capital and Snapdeal, are urging a shift toward sustainable work practices, emphasizing that long-term business success depends on prioritizing health, reports Sneha Shah. Recent high-profile cases, such as Rohan Mirchandani of Epigamia and Ambareesh Murty of Pepperfry, who also succumbed to fatal health issues, underscore the risks of high-stress startup leadership. In response, there is a growing call for founders to adopt a healthier balance between their professional and personal lives. Some are turning to therapy, while others are being encouraged by boards and investors to take breaks, pursue hobbies, and focus on downtime to avoid burnout.

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