Top of the Morning

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Tuesday, November 19, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

In what could be construed as a nudge to RBI to cut lending rates, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized the need for more affordable bank lending rates to support India's growth. But she acknowledged that the government could do more to improve storage for perishable foods to mitigate the inflation volatility. Shayan Ghosh writes that RBI has maintained interest rates since February 2023, and due to inflationary concerns might not change that for now. Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had also called for rate cuts last week. 

India has new advertising guidelines for coaching classes. The new rules aim to prevent misleading claims by holding institutes accountable for false advertisements. Devina Sengupta writes that coaching centres must now provide refunds for unmet promises and disclose if their courses are accredited by relevant authorities. These regulations seek to protect students, who often enroll in coaching hubs like Kota under inflated expectations of success. For many years now, coaching classes have misled students and their parents with tall promises — these regulations are aimed at tempering them.

The government had announced a wide-ranging internship programme during the Union Budget a few months ago. While the original plan was meant for 21-24-year olds, Gireesh Chandra Prasad reports that the scheme might be expanded to the age group of 18-25 years. The focus will continue to remain on candidates from families with annual incomes below Rs 8 lakh and without permanent government jobs. Currently, over 125,000 internships are available in companies like ONGC and Reliance Industries. 

Who said science and faith cannot co-exist? In a move that merges technology with cultural preservation, an AI powered digital twin of St Peter’s Basilica was unveiled  earlier this month. Leslie D’monte writes that such technology can help you explore the world from your living room. AI-related tech is also being used to restore broken artifacts by designing what the missing pieces look like.  

An idle mind, they say, is the devil’s workshop. An IT professional from Bengaluru, rated

as a top performer by his employer, discovered this to his detriment recently. Having

moved from the hellish environmental extremes of Delhi to Bengaluru in the Beautiful

South, he had it all going for him. But instead of making the most that the easygoing IT

capital of India had to offer, he found himself consumed by a hellish addiction to

pornography, which soon made its way from his home to the workplace. Psychologists

blame his addiction on boredom, a silent threat that is looming over employers who fail

to keep their employees occupied in meaningful tasks. As Devina Sengupta writes, if it

is not identified and addressed, boredom’s cascading effects can have a long-term

impact on the prospects of both the employer and the employee.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Monday, November 18, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

Stock markets have been brutal of late. Investors have lost a cumulative ₹50 trillion over the past seven weeks, during which the Nifty and Sensex have fallen 10% from their peaks. Ram Sahgal reports that foreign investors are pulling out in hordes. Poor Q2 results across the board haven’t helped, either. Analysts have remained optimistic of a rebound but are worried about the long-term sustainability of the bull runs that we have seen until a couple of weeks ago.

A tax on crude oil and fuel exports is being scrapped soon. Rituraj Baruah, Gireesh Chandra Prasad and Utpal Bhaskar report that this tax was originally imposed in 2022 following a surge in prices after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. As oil prices have remained low, the union government wants to reduce and eventually eliminate it entirely. This decision will benefit oil companies in India, allowing them to compete globally.

The RBI’s crackdown on unsecured personal loans has led to a reduced demand for off-roll workers in the banking sector. Shayan Ghosh and Devina Sengupta report that the in-house shift of KYC norms has also affected this type of employment. These roles typically did KYC, loans sales and loan collections. While the RBI's change aims to increase compliance and prevent money laundering, it may inadvertently push borrowers towards unregulated money lenders. 

India's roads are dangerous. A road accident in Dehradun last week resulted in 6 deaths and one critical injury. Sumant Banerji writes that 171,000 people died in road accidents in 2022 alone—accounting for nearly 12% of global road fatalities. Key causes include speeding and careless driving, which account for more than 87% of incidents. Unsurprisingly, two-wheeler riders are the most vulnerable. Despite these startling facts, education on road safety remains inadequate.

More than 60% of India's domestic textile demand is for cotton. In a humid country like ours, it's not difficult to see why. Things are different across the world. Man-made fibers such as polyester are much more common in countries such as. China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, which already cornered a lion's share of that market. N. Madhavan writes about these man-made fabrics, their endless potential, and the limitations in the Indian manufacturing and consumer verticals that might prevent them from succeeding like their East Asian counterparts. The government, for its part, has announced a PLI scheme for these fabrics that exceeds ₹10,000 crore. It has already found takers for nearly double that amount. But will it work?

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Friday, November 15, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

China's export restrictions are hurting the Indian economy. Essential materials like Germanium and Gallium have been banned from being exported from China, and are crucial for solar panel and electric vehicle production. Dhirendra Kumar and Utpal Bhaskar report that Indian companies are trying a workaround by rerouting these minerals and other critical machinery through Dubai. However, this proves to be costly as prices have increased by 10% and timelines are delayed by months. Such tactics also further widen India's trade deficit with China, draining foreign exchange.

If your company does any business in the US, you're probably thinking about the implications of Donald Trump's return to the big seat. Law firms are inundated with similar queries. Krishna Yadav writes that law firms are advising their clients to include protective clauses in contracts such as 'Force Majeure' and 'Material Adverse Change'. They are worried that Trump's 'America First' policy can complicate investments as well as invite widespread scrutiny. Cross-border deals might then come to a halt until there's further clarity on international policy.

It seems that automakers ar a rare breed — they don't want any subsidies. The government's ₹26,000 crore PLI scheme has only found takers for subsidies worth ₹500 crore so far. Alisha Sachdev reports that these companies are Tata Motors, Mahindra, Toyota, and Ola Electric. Primarily, the 50% domestic value requirement poses a major challenge for them, as they can't qualify for the scheme. Claims are likely to increase next financial year, when other automakers are more compliant and have bigger expansion plans.

Would you let a robotic arm, controlled by artificial intelligence, operate on you? Leslie D'monte writes that an autonomous AI surgeon named the da Vinci robot is now on the market. It has been trained through imitation learning, like most other AI models. It could potentially revolutionize surgical procedures by replicating complex tasks such as suturing and tissue manipulation. Challenges include precision, cost, and regulatory compliance. And since these devices are entirely digital, a single cyberattack could prove to be quite harmful.

Maharashtra is gearing up for its first state election since the split of its two key regional parties—the Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena. With the second highest number of parliamentary seats in the country, it is a politically crucial state. Between the Mahayuti government and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, populist schemes and promises have taken centre stage to mobilize voters. In a state, where unemployment and rural distress are key electoral issues, will this guarantee a win?

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Thursday, November 14, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

Markets crashed for a second straight day on Wednesday, confirming a shift to bearish sentiment. Ram Sahgal reports that options traders are cutting their put positions on the Nifty index as uncertainty mounts, prompting investors to hedge their portfolios. However, the rising cost of put options has intensified selling pressure. Ram notes that in this bearish climate, call options have become cheaper. The takeaway? Investors are hoping the market has finally bottomed out.

One company bucked the market trend: Swiggy. It made its market debut yesterday, closing with a 7.7% premium over its issue price. Mansi Verma and Priyamvada C report that the listing was a significant liquidity event for major backers like SoftBank and Prosus. Analysts have generally maintained a positive outlook for the stock, though some urge caution, pointing to potential cash flow challenges.

Official data shows India’s consumer price index (CPI) surged to 6.2%, breaching the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit. The primary driver was food inflation, which remains high at 10.9%. N. Madhavan reports sharp increases in the prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and edible oils. The RBI had aimed to keep inflation near 4.8% through the year’s end, but that target now seems elusive. Furthermore, hopes for an interest rate cut have also been dampened.

Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer, has been in India for nearly two decades and has already invested $10 billion. As this Taiwanese giant and a key Apple supplier plans to ramp up investments with sprawling industrial townships, all four southern states are competing for its attention. A potential ‘Foxconn city’ would encompass not just factories but also housing and social infrastructure, generating substantial employment and helping states move up the manufacturing value chain. In today’s long-form story, Gulveen Aulakh and N. Madhavan explore how states are vying for this pivotal investment.

Indian authorities are struggling to investigate a recent wave of bomb hoaxes because of stringent European regulations. Shouvik Das reports that Indian authorities need specific warrants to request information from European countries, but European agencies are citing strict data protection laws to deny these requests. Tracing the calls to individuals has been difficult, as virtual private networks (VPNs) mask users' identities. India’s lack of data-sharing agreements with Europe adds another layer of complexity, slowing cross-border information exchange and further delaying the investigation.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Wednesday, November 13, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

It's never a problem raising money if you're a well-to-do quick commerce player. Zepto is raising around $250 million from high net worth individuals and wealth management firms, report Priyamvada C. and Sneha Shah. Firms like Motilal Oswal, IIFL, and InCred are looking to invest in the company at its previous valuation of $5 billion. If this goes through, this will be Zepto's third capital raise in six months. Zepto wants to balance its capital ahead of a planned IPO next year. Apart from its dark stores, Zepto has also recently launched "Zepto cafe", which competes with established platforms like Swiggy and Zomato.

Finfluencers have a new entity that they have to be wary of: Youtube. The google-owned website has started blocking access to videos following complaints from a government entity. This has led to sharp criticism and potential legal action from these creators. These finfluencers said their videos were removed without prior notice, write Pratishtha Bagai and Neha Joshi. In its response to Mint, Youtube said that it complies with local laws and handles removal requests. But the finfluencers are accusing Youtube of censorship.

History repeats itself, sometimes much faster than we’d think. Donald Trump will soon be back as POTUS, and already, the trade wars that marked his previous term seem to have returned. The US government has reportedly asked TSMC, the world’s largest chip maker, to stop selling advanced ‘AI’ chips to Huawei, China’s largest tech conglomerate. Huawei has been in trouble with American authorities since 2019 after it was accused of cyber espionage. But why will TSMC and Huawei bow to the US’ will? It all has to do with the legacy of chip design, Shouvik explains in today’s Mint Primer.

In its first ever earnings report, Hyundai India disappointed. It reported a 16% drop in net profit for the July-September quarter. Alisha Sachdev writes that weak domestic demand and the Red Sea crisis affected its exports, leading to the drop in numbers. Revenue was down too, primarily due to poor domestic sales. Hyundai doesn't expect demand to pick up significantly either. Moreover, high interest rates will hinder future earnings as well, the automaker added. It is counting on launching its first India-made EV next year to provide a boost for its lagging sales.

There's been a stark rise in cyber crimes of late. Scammers pose as police officers and convince people that they were involved in money laundering. People have fallen prey to such scams and lost lakhs — in some cases, crores — of rupees. Suman Banerji writes that over 1.5 million cyber crime complaints were filed in 2023. But this number could be higher. Experts suggest that many cases go unreported due to embarrassment and indifference from local police. Victims range widely across different demographics, including younger people that might be more savvy, but still got duped.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Tuesday, November 12, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

Starting tomorrow, Zomato will fight its rival not just to deliver your food and groceries, but for your investments too. Swiggy will list on the stock exchanges after its initial public offering was oversubscribed by 3.59 times. At the heart of all the investor buzz is Swiggy’s rather reclusive founder Sriharsha Majety. What is he like, and how different is he from Zomato’s extremely public founder Deepinder Goyal? Ranjani Raghavan profiles Majety – the man of ideas – and how he quietly won over sceptics in the battle for food delivery and quick commerce. 

Any foreign traveller will think about how they're going to pay for things once they have reached their destination. Cash, debit card, credit card, and forex card are your major options. Out of these, prepaid forex cards are theoretically the most economical option as they lower conversion markups. Shipra Singh writes that forex cards also allow for loading multiple currencies at the bank's prevailing exchange rates. However, loading fees and issuing charges can severely eat into this advantage. Shipra's research shows that providers like BookMyForex and Thomas Cook offer better value compared to major banks due to mid-market rates and minimal fees.

ESOPs, or employee stock options, used to be restricted to startups. Mid and junior level employees got them as incentive to leave established companies and join fledgling startups. But now, even the former have joined in on the trend: Devina Sengupta and Sneha Shah write that companies are focusing on middle and junior management employees to retain top talent by offering employee stock ownership plans. They are being offered broadly across industries like IT and e-commerce. These benefits are traditionally reserved for senior management. This shift reflects a growing need to compete for niche talent even at junior-level positions. Soon, these companies might also offer other startup perks like flexible work arrangements to either attract or retain talent.

Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have fallen out of favour in India. Cryptocurrencies have seen a 90% decline in retail trading volumes in the past three years. Shouvik Das writes that Bitcoin's surge to a new all-time high of over $82,000 due to Donald Trump's recent election victory might tempt crypto investors back. Platforms like CoinSwitch and CoinDCX are reporting a 700% increase in active users. Challenges like heavy taxation and the Reserve Bank of India's negative stance on cryptocurrencies still persist, denting exponential growth. Issues like the WazirX hacking incident have also worried investors.

Small-town residents in India are increasingly adopting the dining habits of their urban counterparts. They are developing a preference for eating out and trying international cuisines. Priyamvada C writes that the absence of extensive community spaces has made dining out an important social activity in smaller cities. With the Indian food services market expected to nearly double to ₹9 trillion by the end of the decade, investors see significant opportunities.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Monday, November 11, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

You know it's a bear run when even fund managers are worried about earnings. Nilesh Shah, the managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, discussed about earnings growth estimates for FY26 with Mint’s Ram Sahgal. The current quarter is likely to benefit from higher government spending and seasonal sales, but earnings growth is projected to be only around 5%. This doesn't bode well for the markets, Shah said. The recent stimulus package by the Chinese government into its markets is another cause for worry. But he isn't entirely pessimistic: Shah said that despite recent selling by foreign investors, a rebound might be possible given the strong earnings growth of Indian companies over the past decade.

Today, COP29 commences in Azerbaijan. The Conference of Parties has established itself as the premier event to discuss global warming. Sayantan Bera writes that key discussions will focus on a climate finance deal essential for supporting poor and emerging economies in transitioning to clean energy. These countries will require an estimated $2.4 trillion annually. India, the third-largest emitter, is expected to advocate for increased climate finance while balancing its energy needs, he adds.

How will Donald Trump's victory impact your portfolio? In the west, the immediate aftermath of the results saw a spike in stocks on Nasdaq, as well as Bitcoin. However, Abhishek Mukherjee writes that this euphoria was short-lived. Investors began to assess the potential implications of Trump’s policies on the economy and markets worldwide, including in India — leading to massive sell-offs. Despite some initial concerns, the Indian IT sector stands to gain from Trump's proposed economic measures. Tighter immigration policies, however, may hurt Indian companies and they might have to hire US citizens to ease that burden.

The Reserve Bank of India doesn't want banks to dole out too many unsecured personal loans. This has spurned a surge in gold loans. September saw an increase of 51% in the disbursal of gold loans. Shayan Ghosh and Anshika Kayastha write that the outstanding gold loan base stands at ₹1.5 trillion. However, this is quite small in comparison to the personal gold loan base, which is a mammoth ₹14.3 trillion. Encouraged by a 16% increase in gold prices, borrowers are finding that a more attractive option over personal loans. There are concerns over this trend, and RBI might yet have something to say about the rapid increase in gold loans.

Electric three wheelers are about to get expensive. The government announced that the annual cap for subsidies for three wheelers has nearly been reached, as sales have exceeded expectations so far this year. Alisha Sachdev writes that this will increase the prices of EV three wheelers by 15 to 18%. Major manufacturers including Mahindra Last Mile Mobility and Bajaj Auto have expressed concerns about the impact on demand. They told Alisha that a temporary sales slump would be dangerous for the adoption of EV three wheelers in India. They are also lobbying the government to create a more flexible incentive structure to accommodate the growth in demand.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Friday, November 8, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

One of India's marquee airlines finally ended its journey yesterday. The Supreme Court ordered the liquidation of Jet Airways, ending a long quest for survival. Krishna Yadav writes that the Jalan Kalrock Consortium had failed to meet obligations such as infusing ₹350 crore and settling worker dues, leading to this decision. Jet Airways has been bankrupt since April 2019. Krishna adds that this case has raised concerns about the effectiveness of India’s Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, particularly regarding airline insolvencies.

Have you ever thought why we get pizzas and groceries in 10 minutes, but not life-saving medicines? That might change soon. Jessica Jani writes that companies like Tata 1mg, PharmEasy, and Apollo 24/7 are piloting ultra-fast medicine delivery services. 1mg is collaborating with fellow Tata brand BigBasket for quick delivery in select cities, while Apollo 24/7 has launched a 19-minute delivery in major markets. Swiggy is also partnering with PharmEasy for under-10-minute deliveries in Bengaluru. However, inventory management, medicine storage, and regulatory compliance are big challenges. 

In a surprise decision, the government announced that it will stop paying interest on National Savings Scheme accounts from October 1. This means that both principal and interest will be taxable on withdrawal. Aprajita Sharma spoke to NSS holders who expressed concerns about the negative impact on their tax liabilities as senior citizens. The sudden change has also prompted calls for the government to reconsider its decision, and offer tax relief or alternative investment options. This move undermines trust in small savings schemes, and it also triggers fears about the stability of other savings products like the Public Provident Fund.

A day after the big result, we're still assessing the implication of Donald Trump's victory. Shouvik Das writes that Trump's pro-business and anti-regulations will be favourable for Big Tech companies like Twitter and Meta. These companies have faced some issues in India as well as Europe, where they are under scrutiny for their trade practices. Lawyers and policymakers that Shouvik spoke to told him that Trump's backing could ease their worries in India, which has often been tough on Big Tech's practices so far.

For most, homes are private spaces. It's where you come to relax, take a breather, and sometimes escape from the outside world. Not for influencers, though: Pratishtha Bagai writes about content creators who share tours of their homes on social media. House tours have become a major "self-expression trend", as Pratishtha writes. Experts suggest this fascination reflects aspirational consumer behavior. Viewers seem to be actually influenced and inspired to recreate the aesthetics of their favorite influencers in their own homes, irrespective of the high costs involved in such a practice. 

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Thursday, November 7, 2024. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election once again, this time with substantial control over the US Senate. N. Madhavan analyses how Trump’s policies are set to trigger economic and political turbulence at home and abroad. His aggressive trade stance—highlighted by proposed universal tariffs and the looming threat of a trade war with China—could destabilize the global trading landscape. On the political front, his plans for mass deportations risk deepening divisions within the US and straining national resources. Madhavan’s in-depth piece explores Trump’s potential policy moves and their far-reaching implications for India and the world.

Following recent lows, Indian stock markets are expected to rebound in the wake of Trump’s victory. Ram Sahgal notes that institutional investors may begin unwinding short positions, fuelling a rally that analysts predict could last about a week. However, much like Trump’s unpredictable policies, the long-term impact of his presidency remains uncertain, with tariffs and inflation likely to be key influences.

Rhik Kundu reports that India’s trade dynamics with the US could face significant shifts under Trump’s administration. With a trade surplus favouring India, Trump's "America First" agenda may lead to higher tariffs on Indian goods, posing challenges for the Indian economy. Key sectors like automobiles and pharmaceuticals are likely to feel the impact most acutely. Additionally, India's IT sector could be affected by potential changes to US visa policies, as Trump is expected to tighten H-1B regulations.

A critical pressure point for the Indian economy remains the rupee's performance against the dollar. In the wake of Trump’s victory, geopolitical uncertainty and trade tariff concerns, especially regarding China, have intensified. Shayan Ghosh notes that the rupee recently hit a record low of 84.28 against the dollar. To counter further depreciation, the Reserve Bank of India, backed by $684 billion in reserves, stands ready to intervene. Analysts suggest that the RBI’s actions could stabilize the rupee, with projections indicating a possible recovery toward the 84 level following initial declines.

Trump's victory is likely to bring significant implications for visas, especially for the millions of Indian IT professionals and students who move to the US each year. The H-1B visa, critical for many, remains a contentious point. Mansi Verma, Devina Sengupta, and Shouvik Das report that while immediate effects may be limited, the true impact will emerge in the coming years as Trump’s policies fully take hold. With Australia and Canada also tightening visa issuance, restrictions in the US could sharply curtail emigration opportunities for Indians.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Wednesday, November 6, 2024. This is Nelson John, let’s get started. 

The NSE is likely to see a drop in its trading activity. This is because the market regulator, Sebi, has decided that starting November 20th, the exchange can only offer one type of weekly trading option, focusing on the Nifty series instead of the more popular Bank Nifty series. Ram Sahgal reports on the decision which is part of Sebi’s efforts to calm down trading activities and reduce losses for individual investors. Ashishkumar Chauhan, MD and CEO of NSE, said on Tuesday that this change might lead to a decrease in trading volumes, and some of the activity that used to happen every week might just vanish as traders adjust to the new rules.

Data from RBI has revealed that state-owned banks have been raising their deposit interest rates to the highest levels in almost eight years, trying to attract more people to save money with them. This increase, reaching 7% in September for public sector banks, is in response to their high credit-deposit ratios, indicating a high use of deposits for lending. The push by PSBs to offer more competitive rates aims to attract more deposits as their loan growth outpaces deposit accumulation. Shayan Ghosh spoke to top public bankers who suggest that deposit rates may have peaked, which could help stabilize their margins.

Last month saw a sudden rise in hoax calls that targeted airlines and hotels. These hoax calls were usually bomb threats made by anonymous people on the internet. Shouvik Das writes that these are the latest form of scam calls that use virtual networks and VPNs to hide the caller's digital footprint. India experiences an average of 5 million scam and hoax calls a day. Cyber security experts are investigating the incidents, but have to work through the sophisticated techniques used by perpetrators. Additionally, cross-border regulations complicate matters further. Tracing calls to foreign origins requires cooperation from other nations, and substantial evidence isn't always available.

Consumer and e-commerce firms faced subdued sales during the festive season. This could affect year-end bonuses for employees, who could see a potential 15% reduction. Companies typically pay bonuses during the festive season and at the fiscal year's end, with additional performance-linked payouts, Sowmya Ramasbramanian, Shouvik Das and Devina Sengupta report. However, due to less spending by consumers who are cautious due to high prices and relying more on EMIs, overall sales haven't met expectations. This downturn in sales means bonuses tied to sales targets and company performance could be lower. While some sectors, like quick commerce, saw decent festive sales, overall, the scenario remains challenging, impacting how much companies can afford in terms of bonuses this year.

India's mattress market has long had stalwarts like Kurlon and Sleepwell. A few years ago, some startups came and disrupted this space. One of them was Wakefit. Fuelled by a steady stream of venture capital funding, Wakefit has increased its revenue by 12x over the last five years. This revenue in excess of ₹1,000 crore has already exceeded that of Kurlon. Samiksha Goel writes about Wakefit's journey and strategy to set itself apart in India's mattress market by using cheaper pricing and strategies such as a 100 day trial period.That’s all for today.