Mike Titelbaum is a professor of philosophy at the University of Wisconsin–Madison whose work focuses on epistemology, especially Bayesian epistemology, probability, and how we form rational beliefs under uncertainty. His research explores how evidence should guide belief, how confidence levels change over time, and how people should respond to disagreement. He’s also the author of Quitting Certainties, a book that examines the limits of certainty and how rational thinking actually works in real life.

00:00 Introduction to Belief and Evidence

01:32 The Nature of Belief and Evidence

04:40 Philosophical Perspectives on Evidence

07:14 Induction vs. Deduction in Reasoning

09:57 Navigating Uncertainty in Life

13:03 Bayesian Epistemology Explained

15:48 Confidence and Self-Perception

18:27 The Role of Higher Order Confidence

21:26 Disagreement and Epistemic Bubbles

31:37 Exploring Astrology and Epistemic Bubbles

33:50 The Role of Experience in Evidence

36:34 The Uniqueness Thesis in Philosophy

39:12 Challenges to the Uniqueness Thesis

43:20 AI and Bayesian Epistemology

51:41 The Future of Philosophy in the Age of AI