By Capital Economics
The podcast currently has 114 episodes available.
China’s leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy’s bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook for the Chinese economy has fundamentally shifted as a result of a news-packed few days.
He also talks about what the latest European inflation data suggests about how the ECB will play its October meeting and marks the second anniversary of the Liz Truss “mini budget” debacle.
Also in this episode, Thomas Ryan, our US housing lead, talks to US Economist Olivia Cross about how the market is finally shifting away from sellers, differences with what's happening in Canada and what Kamala Harris’ plans to improve affordability would mean for the US outlook.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
China: New fiscal package being lined up
China property construction correction has barely begun
Germany will be stuck in the slow lane
Global Drop-In: Are the US and Europe at risk of recession?
Key Issue: What to expect on Budget day
US Housing: Sellers lose grip on the market
After the long-awaited start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses next steps. He answers client questions about the risks of inflation bouncing back and explains why we expect rates to settle at levels much higher than before the pandemic.
Also, on the show, Lily Millard and Shilan Shah from our emerging markets team discuss how EM central banks are likely to respond as US rates start falling.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Reports of retail’s death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail’s potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it’ll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK.
CRE Chief Economist Kiran Raichura and Matt Pointon, our UK CRE lead, are on this special property-themed episode of The Weekly Briefing to talk to David Wilder about our forecasts and address some of the big issues around retail’s recovery, including:
Analysis referenced in this episode:
US: Time to go shopping for retail assets
UK: Retail investment will continue to lead the recovery
UK Q4 Outlook: Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns
As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut.
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move.
Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which crunches more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing.
Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, discusses our Economic Momentum Indicators, which give investors single, comparable data points showing whether DM economies are facing recession. He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the growth risks faced by the US and Germany.
Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode:
Report: Rate cuts and asset returns
Dashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset Returns
Report: How to gauge recession risk in DMs
Dashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators
That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month?
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talk recession risks, the Fed and ECB meetings, manufacturing’s struggles and more.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
US August Employment Report
ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts
US Scenarios Dashboard
Capital Economics online and in-person events
August’s US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week’s must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we’re expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month.
Neil also discusses China’s confusing policy signals and, ahead of client briefings this week, highlights some of the key risks that the economist team is watching between now and year-end.
Also on the show, Zichun Huang from our China team explains what Beijing needs to do to resolve the property market’s giant inventory of unsold apartments – but also why resolution won’t dramatically alter the Chinese economic outlook.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson Hole.
Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis point cut, look ahead to the coming week's inflation and consumption data, and also take in Kamala Harris' nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention.
Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discussed signs of improvement in China-India ties and what they mean in a global economy that's fracturing into US and China-led economic blocs.
Referenced in this episode:
As markets have come roaring back from the recent growth scare, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics’ Chief Global Economist, about the true state of the global economy and the outlook for policy.
Their discussion takes in the latest activity data from across the US, UK, Europe and China, as well as the signals from recent inflation reports, to assess the chances of soft landings and how far central banks – with the Bank of Japan being the notable exception – will go to cut interest rates.
Referenced in this episode:
Central Bank Hub - Our one-stop-shop guide to global monetary policy
Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing - In-depth report on the new global economic fault line
Global markets appear to have stabilised at the end of a week which began with a nasty bout of volatility. But is the selling in equities over or will fears about the US economy and an unwinding carry trade trigger more pain for investors?
Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Jonas Goltermann, Capital Economics’ Deputy Chief Markets Economist, talk to David Wilder about a dramatic few days in global markets and what to expect in the coming weeks and months. In this 23-minute show they address key issues, including:
Referenced in this episode:
With that grim July payrolls report triggering fresh selling in US stocks and bond buying on Friday, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder to talk about whether there's anything to recession fears, what the Fed will do in the coming weeks and what this all means for equities. During this discussion, they touch on the key issues in the market at the moment, including:
Jonas will join Chief Markets Economist John Higgins for an online briefing about the US equities markets outlook on Wednesday, 7th August. Capital Economics clients can register for that briefing here.
The podcast currently has 114 episodes available.