Straight Outta Vegas AM

Cash That Ticket - Friday January 16th


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Munaf Manji and Dave Essler talk Friday betting.

Munaf Manji and Dave Essler closed the week on Cash That Ticket by tightening their focus on specific betting angles across the NFL divisional round and a dense Friday NBA card, emphasizing how market movement, injuries, and usage trends shape late week decisions. Their NFL discussion centered on Seattle versus San Francisco, where brief concern over Sam Darnold’s injury report was dismissed as noise rather than actionable information. Instead, attention shifted to Seattle’s evolving backfield, with both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet positioned as central pieces against a 49ers defense they had already exploited late in the regular season. Manji outlined how the near even split in carries and efficiency from both backs supported overs on rushing attempts and yardage, while Essler extended the logic to correlated unders for secondary skill players, arguing that volume for the running game naturally suppresses opportunities elsewhere. The same cause and effect framework guided their thoughts on Cooper Kupp’s modest receiving lines, where Essler suggested short area targets could rise if San Francisco limited explosive plays from Seattle’s primary threats. The conversation expanded to additional player props, including DeAndre Swift’s receiving yardage, which both viewed as mispriced given past usage and matchup tendencies, noting that a single reception could realistically clear the number. On the NBA side, Manji and Essler evaluated Clippers at Raptors through the lens of pace, defensive efficiency, and uncertainty surrounding key injuries. Toronto’s season long defensive profile and the Clippers’ slow tempo supported an under, while Essler leaned toward the Raptors as a side, contingent on lineup clarity and travel factors. Minnesota at Houston drew similar scrutiny, with both questioning the Rockets’ reliability as home favorites, particularly in back to back situations, and highlighting Minnesota’s depth and recent efficiency even without Anthony Edwards. They also touched on broader league narratives, from speculation around potential player movement to the competitive imbalance created by high payroll teams in baseball, before locking in best bets. Essler backed Kansas at home in college basketball, citing matchup advantages and motivation, while Manji closed with a points prop on Michael Porter Jr., pointing to shot volume and prior performance against the same opponent as reasons to expect another strong scoring night.


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