SHOWNOTES

This special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data.

[00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions.

[00:00] Disclaimer Standard informational-purpose disclaimer and reminder to do your own work.

[00:00] Big Tech Picks: Tesla vs. Amazon vs. Apple Spending The group reviews last year’s results (Tesla surprised on FCF growth) and debates whether AI data-center CapEx keeps pressuring peers while Tesla benefits off a lower base and optionality (including robotaxi economics).

[00:04] Software Picks: ServiceNow, Broadcom, Snowflake, Oracle Lessons ServiceNow won last year, Oracle disappointed, and this year’s debate centers on Broadcom’s AI hardware exposure versus Snowflake as an enabling layer for agentic tooling.

[00:06] Semiconductors: Nvidia’s Run Rate vs. TSM CapEx and AMD/Intel Wildcards Nvidia’s dominance is acknowledged, but the conversation digs into bottlenecks, pricing power, and whether heavy foundry CapEx changes the cash flow race.

[00:09] Media: Spotify Discipline vs. Netflix Spend and Deal Risk Spotify’s cash flow trajectory and cost discipline face off against Netflix’s content ramp and strategic transaction risks, with Meta and Disney briefly framed through the lens of capital intensity.

[00:11] Telecom/Cable: AT&T Cloud RAN Thesis, Charter CapEx, T-Mobile Execution Comcast’s prior-year surprise is noted, then the focus shifts to margin structures, leverage, and whether cloud-based network architectures can unlock better economics.

[00:13] Payments: PayPal Turnaround vs. Visa/Mastercard Durability The group leans into operating leverage and improvement potential at PayPal versus steadier compounding models for the networks.

[00:14] Retailers: Walmart Resilience, Home Depot Housing Tailwinds, CarMax Turnaround A tough page with shrinking free cash flow leads to a discussion of “least bad” outcomes and what could drive a bounce-back, including housing policy tailwinds.

[15:56] Exhibit C (Oil): Supply Discipline, OPEC+ Capacity, and WTI Range A quick state-of-play on global supply, spare capacity trends, and why the base case centers around high-$50s/low-$60s WTI with constrained production increases.

[18:55] Exhibit B (Natural Gas): Henry Hub Pressure and LNG Oversupply Risk Natural gas retraces from recent highs as supply builds early; LNG growth remains the hope, but global pricing and oversupply dynamics can cap upside.

[20:41] Exhibit A (U.S. Government Finances): Shutdown Risk and Budget Process Discussion on funding deadlines, progress on appropriations, and why a shutdown appears less likely if committees complete key spending bills.

[21:54] Healthcare News: JPM Conference, Moderna–Merck Melanoma Data, Illumina Reimbursement Updates on muted deal flow, encouraging long-duration melanoma outcomes from a Moderna–Merck program, and a notable reimbursement development for Illumina-related oncology testing.

[24:25] Lilly vs. Novo: GLP-1 Pills, Patents, and the Next Margin Battle The group evaluates oral GLP-1 momentum, patent cliffs outside the U.S., and why manufacturing cost and pricing strategy could reshape share over time.

[26:27] Cancer Vaccines: How They Fit Into Treatment and Monitoring A practical framework for vaccines as an “anti-relapse” add-on, the role of MRD/early detection, and how falling test costs could expand routine screening and follow-on interventions.

[31:01] Wrap and Next Week They pause the memo walkthrough to finish the remaining pages next episode and invite listeners to follow along with the memo and exhibits.

If you want the full context behind each pick, download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along page-by-page. Subscribe for next week’s continuation of the cashflow predictions and more updates across energy, technology, and healthcare.

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