Casual Friday: Financial Insights

Wall Street's biggest research shop just told everyone how the rest of 2026 is going to play out. We're not so sure it's that simple.

This week on Casual Friday: Financial Insights, we break down LPL Research's Midyear Outlook 2026 — the economy, the stock market, the bond market, and AI as the dominant investing theme — and give our honest take on where we agree, where we'd push back, and what it actually means for your portfolio.

🔍 In this episode:

• The economy's growth story is leaning almost entirely on one leg: AI-driven business investment
• Is LPL's S&P 500 target (7,650–7,750) too precise for how much is still unresolved?
• AI's shift from "buildout hype" to "prove the ROI" — and why "it survives but gets more selective" might be the safest, least useful forecast out there

**Connect with Us:**

- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

In this episode, Brian and Ryan break down the LPL Research 2026 Outlook and translate Wall Street research into plain-English takeaways for investors.

The big theme for 2026: markets are being driven less by traditional fundamentals and more by policy decisions, momentum, and investor behavior. Brian and Ryan discuss what that means for the economy, stock market expectations, and fixed income—and how investors should think about positioning portfolios heading into the year.

Rather than reacting to headlines, this conversation focuses on staying disciplined, patient, and aligned with long-term goals in what is likely to be a more volatile, policy-sensitive market environment.

The Economy: Slower First, Stronger Later

• Expectations for a modest economic slowdown early in 2026
• Why AI investment and fiscal spending may help prevent a recession
• Cooling labor markets, easing inflation pressures, and what that means for Federal Reserve policy
• Why rate cuts are expected to be gradual, not aggressive  

Stocks: Bull Market, But With More Bumps

• Why the bull market may extend into 2026—but with more tempered gains
• Elevated valuations and the likelihood of increased volatility in a mid-cycle year
• The role of AI enthusiasm in supporting equity markets
• Why patience and selective opportunities matter more than chasing headlines
• LPL Research’s S&P 500 fair value range of 7,300–7,400 for 2026  

Bonds and Cash: Income Over Price Appreciation

• Why bonds are again offering meaningful income opportunities
• Expectations for 10-year Treasury yields in the 3.75%–4.25% range
• Why returns on cash are likely to decline as rates fall
• The case for high-quality, intermediate-term bonds for long-term investors  

Markets may be noisier and more policy-driven in 2026—but discipline, diversification, and patience remain the most reliable tools investors have. This episode helps cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters.

Check out LPL Research's Outlook: CLICK HERE

**Connect with Us:**

- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

Most retirees worry about outliving their money — but the data shows they often do the opposite: they underspend. In fact, many leave retirement with more assets than they started with, despite having saved for decades to fund their lifestyle. Why is this happening, and what can financial advisors and plan sponsors do about it?

In this episode, Brian Ullmann and Ryan Louie sit down with Ronnie Cox, Investment Director at Human Interest, to unpack the psychology behind retirement spending, the so-called “retirement consumption puzzle,” and the tools available to help retirees spend with confidence.

Ronnie brings his perspective from years of experience in retirement plan design and his recent byline in InvestmentNews, where he explored why retirees underspend and what advisors can do to help. He also highlights findings from recent research on retiree behavior and decumulation strategies.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode

• Why retirees spend 80% of their lifetime income but only about half of their accumulated savings.
• The psychological forces at work, including loss aversion, complexity aversion, and mental accounting.
• How Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) nudge retirees into treating savings as income — and why this matters for future policy and plan design.
• The role of decumulation products like annuities, managed payout funds, and in-plan income solutions.
• How SECURE Act 2.0 and innovations in plan design could reshape the future of retirement income.

About Our Guest

Ronnie Cox is the Investment Director at Human Interest, a fast-growing 401(k) provider focused on expanding access to retirement savings plans. Ronnie has been at the forefront of researching participant behavior, retirement readiness, and the psychological roadblocks that prevent retirees from spending confidently in retirement.

Links & Resources

• Ronnie’s recent InvestmentNews article: Why retirees underspend and what advisors can do about it
• Human Interest: https://humaninterest.com

**Connect with Us:**
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

**Connect with Us:**
- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

**Connect with Us:**
- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

**Connect with Us:**
- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

**Connect with Us:**
- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

This week Brian and Ryan sit down with Marc Fowler, 401(k) expert and representative of Human Interest, to discuss why 2025 is a pivotal year for small businesses to start offering a 401(k) plan. If you’re a business owner who hasn’t yet taken the plunge, this episode is packed with actionable insights on why now is the time.

Key Takeaways

1. Tax Incentives Are Better Than Ever
   • Marc explains how recent legislation, such as the SECURE Act 2.0, offers significant tax credits for small businesses starting a retirement plan. These credits can cover a substantial portion of plan setup costs.
2. Boost Employee Retention
   • A robust benefits package, including a 401(k), can help attract and retain top talent in an increasingly competitive job market. Marc shares data on how retirement benefits impact employee satisfaction.
3. Retirement Savings for Business Owners
   • A 401(k) doesn’t just benefit employees—it’s also a powerful tool for business owners to save for their own retirement in a tax-advantaged way.
4. Plan Costs Are Lower Than You Think
   • Thanks to advancements in technology and increased competition, the cost of offering a 401(k) plan has decreased dramatically over the last three years. Marc highlights how affordable it has become for small businesses.

Featured Articles and Resources

• Wall Street Journal: Older Workers Can Now Supersize Their 401(k) Savings
  This article dives into the new “super catch-up” contributions for workers aged 60 and older, starting in 2025. Learn how this feature can help both employees and business owners boost their retirement savings.
• PlanSponsor: Plan Sponsors May Be Paying Too Much in DC Plan Fees
  Discover how 401(k) fees have dropped significantly, making it easier for small businesses to afford these plans without sacrificing quality.

Connect With Us

- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

In this episode, Ryan and Brian explore the U.S. national debt as it approaches a staggering $36 trillion—a figure that has nearly quadrupled since before the 2008 global financial crisis. With the federal debt growing every year since 2001, it’s a topic that continues to spark heated debates over budget deficits, the debt ceiling, government shutdowns, and stimulus spending.

Now that the election is behind us, the focus shifts to the incoming administration’s policy proposals and cabinet nominations. But what does the growing national debt mean for the economy, markets, and your investment strategy?

We break down:

• The history and rapid growth of the national debt.
• The economic and market implications of government spending.
• How investors can stay focused on long-term drivers amid fiscal uncertainty.

Tune in to gain clarity on this complex topic and learn how to navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.

**Connect with Us:**
- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!

In this episode, we delve into the latest insights on retirement planning amidst rising living costs and inflation. Here’s what we cover:

1. Current Inflation and Social Security Adjustments:
   - 2025 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA): A 2.5% increase for Social Security reflects slowing inflation, down from higher increases in recent years.
   - Impact on Retirees: While the COLA helps, it's still challenging to keep up with the high costs of essentials, particularly healthcare and housing.

2. Withdrawal Strategies and the 4% Rule:
   - Evaluating the 4% Rule: We examine the historical basis of this popular retirement withdrawal rate, noting that only once in the 1960s did it dip to 4% for balanced portfolios.
   - Market Conditions’ Influence: Market variability underscores the importance of a flexible withdrawal strategy, as safe withdrawal rates can fluctuate with economic cycles.

3. Increasing Life Expectancies and Longevity Risk:
   - Life Expectancy Trends: Today’s retirees may live well into their 90s, leading to what’s known as "longevity risk," where the risk of outliving one’s savings intensifies.
   - Balancing Growth and Income: Strategies for ensuring portfolios generate growth and income to maintain quality of life over longer retirement horizons.

4. Key Takeaways:
   - Inflation remains a challenge despite recent deceleration.
   - Retirees must manage longevity risk through growth-oriented investments alongside traditional income-focused strategies.
   - Adapting withdrawal rates and building resilient portfolios can help support a fulfilling, secure retirement.

Let’s break down these concepts with expert insights and actionable steps for today’s retirees and those preparing for their retirement journey. Tune in to navigate the financial landscape with confidence!

**Connect with Us:**
- Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@fordfinancialgroup
- Subscribe to the Casual Friday - Financial Insights podcast: Apple and Spotify
- Share your stories or questions:  [email protected]
- Find us on the Web: FordFG.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Perennial Investment Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Ford Financial Group and Perennial Investment Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial. Ford Financial Group, Perennial Investment Advisors, and LPL Financial do not provide tax advice or services.

Send in your questions!