Cattle Chatter

As the cattle industry awaits this month's Cattle on Feed report and looks for direction from the cash market, questions continue to swirl around supply, demand, and the long-term outlook for the beef business.

On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek discusses why he remains bullish on the cattle market in the short term despite recent pressure in boxed beef values. He notes that while beef demand has remained resilient, U.S. agriculture has often found itself reacting to challenges rather than staying ahead of them.

Kooima also shares his thoughts on the future of beef industry infrastructure and what he's hearing from Mexican cattle and beef producers. According to Kooima, Mexico continues to invest in strengthening its own processing and production infrastructure, with a growing focus on becoming less dependent on the United States. Those investments could have long-term implications for North American beef trade and the competitive landscape of the industry.

The conversation examines how infrastructure, market access, and shifting global dynamics may shape the future of the cattle business for years to come.

It's been a week filled with head-scratching price action and volatility in the cattle market. According to Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek, the market has become increasingly difficult to read on a day-to-day basis. Much of the uncertainty stems from ongoing rumors of plant closures, concerns about the spread of New World screwworm, and a significant decline in open interest, with roughly 25,000 contracts leaving the market over the past five trading sessions.

Meanwhile, the cash cattle market continues to show signs that available inventory is being worked through, which could increase pressure on packers to step into the market and secure additional supplies.

Kooima also shares his perspective on border closures and the impact they could have on the movement of U.S. beef. Looking ahead, he believes the beef industry's infrastructure may never look the same as it has in the past, as producers, processors, and policymakers adapt to evolving challenges.

The conversation also highlights a fact that often surprises consumers: despite being one of the world's largest beef producers, the United States is also the world's largest importer of beef, underscoring the complexity and global nature of today's beef supply chain.

The cattle market reacted swiftly to confirmation of New World screwworm in a three-week-old calf, but the initial selloff was short-lived. Futures traded lower for only a few minutes following the opening bell before reversing course, with feeder cattle eventually closing the session limit up.

On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek discusses one of the fastest market selloffs and recoveries in recent memory, noting that much of the fear surrounding a screwworm confirmation had already been priced into the market. He also examines what an export containment and quarantine strategy could look like for Texas moving forward.

From a consumer standpoint, the reaction has been far different than past livestock-related events such as swine flu or the "pink slime" controversy. Kooima believes today's consumers have greater access to information and fact-checking through the internet, helping reduce some of the uncertainty and fear that accompanied previous industry challenges.

Supporting the market was another strong week in the cash cattle trade, which provided the momentum needed to push futures higher and helped offset concerns surrounding the screwworm news.

There was plenty of macro influence in last week's cattle trade. On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek looks back at the major market movers and discusses how much of Friday's Cattle on Feed report had already been factored into the trade. The industry also saw strong beef movement over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, even though boxed beef values slipped lower on Thursday. Attention now turns to this week's cash cattle trade, with prices still very much up for grabs. Brad also answers a viewer question on why the cattle industry has been able to maintain leverage for such an extended period during this historic rally, compared to the sharp but shorter-lived run experienced during the 2014 cattle market.

Those in the cattle industry have been aware for the past four weeks that the Cargill beef processing facility in Fort Morgan, Colorado, has been dark. However, news of a labor lockout grabbed the attention of trading algorithms this week, adding pressure to cattle futures despite the situation being well known within the industry.

On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek discusses the impact of the plant shutdown, the continued strength in the cash cattle market, and even the outside pressure created by President Trump's social media comments about addressing the nation's beef shortage.

Attention now turns to Friday afternoon's USDA Cattle on Feed report. There is a growing sense among traders that the report could set the tone for market direction when trading resumes Tuesday following the three-day holiday weekend.

Brad also answers a viewer question regarding the increase in the percentage of cattle grading as "4s" and whether that could be a sign the industry has fallen behind on marketings and, in turn, surrendered some of its leverage in the marketplace.

The cattle market is entering uncharted territory, with cash trade surging $7 higher in the North and $3 to $5 higher in the South, with some northern sales reported as high as $265. On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek breaks down the latest price movement and discusses the newly announced expanded trading limits. Effective June 1, Live Cattle limits will move to $8.50, while Feeder Cattle limits increase to $10.75.

Markets are also keeping a close eye on trade developments with China, including questions surrounding why nearly 400 packing licenses were approved and then later pulled back. At the same time, worsening drought conditions are prompting more cattle to move to market, though producers appear committed to holding onto their cow herds—signaling continued confidence in long-term fundamentals.

The Brazilian beef industry is urging Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to push for expanded access to the U.S. market during talks with Donald Trump, arguing that the current quota system limits Brazil's lower-tariff access and raises duties to more than 26% once quotas are filled.

On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek takes a closer look at Thursday's meeting between the two presidents and discusses how the cash cattle trade is continuing where last week left off, with packers still considered short bought. The conversation also turns to beef demand and where consumer interest could head as the industry moves into the summer grilling season.

Strong Plains cash cattle trade is taking center stage this week, running $12 higher than last week, with May supplies expected to stay tight. On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says heavier cattle continue to come to market, while the industry holds in a pattern waiting for seasonal improvement in boxed beef values.

Despite concerns about large speculative long positions, the overall tone of the market remains strong—highlighting what continues to be an impressive bull run in the cattle complex.

The market is still searching for clarity on border developments, especially after Brooke Rollins canceled her planned Friday visit to Arizona. On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima at Kooima Kooima Varilek looks at how that uncertainty is adding to an already quiet tone in the cash market, where a standoff continues and could stretch through Friday's close.

For now, cattle weights aren't raising major concerns, while attention is starting to turn toward seasonal demand. With one of the biggest grilling occasions of the year—Mother's Day on May 10—just around the corner, there's optimism that boxed beef values could see improvement in the weeks ahead.

Has the cattle market found a top, or is this just a temporary pause in the rally? On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek compares current prices to a year ago, highlighting the stronger profitability producers are seeing today. The conversation also dives into market transparency and the continued strength seen in northern negotiated trade.

In addition, the United States Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Marketing Service has launched a new National Feeder and Stocker Cattle dashboard, offering producers more timely and detailed market data. Kooima explains what this tool could mean for cattle producers moving forward. Meanwhile, comments from Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins on March 28th hinted at a potential border reopening announcement in the coming weeks—another factor the market will be watching closely.