Caveat Emptor

The labor market shows signs of cooling as inflation numbers come in hot, a Le Pen moment in France, the unraveling of CoreWeave, gold revaluation, selective defaults, a diesel deal with Russia and gold-backed Treasuries.

A look ahead to potential fourth-quarter developments, including interest rates, the Fed, oil, equities, superintelligence, the midterms, French elections and a couple of interesting hires at the Treasury Department.

Anthropic’s leaked prospectus, a look ahead to the midterms, AI crushes the insurance industry, $6 diesel, 7% mortgage rates, and the competition for capital. 

The housing market cools down, interest rates surge, diesel export controls, artificial intelligence, and the life insurance industry gets a private equity wake-up call.

A new hiking cycle has begun, private credit defaults hit record highs, Canada flirts with the EU, AI CEOs beg for regulation, Zelensky defies Trump, and the Houthis seize the Bab al-Mandab.

More stimmy checks, the case for bonds, "I am the house," the war ends after the midterms, and the end of humanity.

The broken housing market, the stock market’s more important than Social Security, a potential jumbo hike by the BOJ, a military disaster, and Chairman Warsh goes hiking.   

Economic D-Day, interest rates are signals, Druckenmiller schools Bessent, data center pushback, and Lake America.

The Treasury puts its thumb on the long end of the curve, gold rips higher, Fed meetings reduced to six, United Wholesale Mortgage, Guggenheim, 777 Partners and Trump Bank.

Yen intervention, AI securitization funds, live Fed meetings, the war with Iran, and the labor market and inflation.