Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share Central Asia tries to become a region
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
Central Asia tries to become a region
This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with the legal and political dispute around Gazprom and Naftogaz in Kazakhstan. A court at the Astana International Financial Centre recognised a Swiss arbitration award of around $1.4 billion in favour of Ukraine’s Naftogaz against Russia’s Gazprom. But Kazakhstan’s justice minister later said the ruling would not be enforced, arguing that the dispute had no meaningful legal connection to Kazakhstan or the AIFC. We discuss why this matters, what the AIFC was created to do, and why the case exposes a tension between the centre’s international commercial-law ambitions and the Kazakh state’s political caution.
We then turn to new figures from the Eurasian Development Bank showing that trade between Central Asian countries has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching $12.3 billion in 2025. Kazakhstan remains the largest intra-regional exporter, followed by Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan’s role has grown sharply. The numbers are encouraging, but the baseline remains low. We discuss why intra-regional trade matters, how it differs from Central Asia’s raw-material exports to outside markets, and why barriers such as customs friction, poor infrastructure and border corruption still hold the region back.
In our interview slot, we speak with Johan Engvall, Deputy Research Director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, about his new report, Forming a New Central Asia: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Build Regional Order Under Multipolar Pressure. We discuss the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan axis, Uzbekistan’s post-2016 regional opening, the role of consultative meetings, the Middle Corridor, and whether Central Asia is becoming more capable of acting as a region rather than merely reacting to Russia, China and the West.
LINKS
* AIFC Court judgment in Naftogaz v Gazprom - https://court.aifc.kz/judgments/case-no-2-of-2026/
* Eurasian Development Bank Telegram post on intra-regional trade - https://t.me/eabr_bank/1266
* Johan Engvall’s report, Forming a New Central Asia - https://www.foi.se/en/foi/reports/report-summary.html?reportNo=FOI-R--5814--SE
Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe
View all episodes
By Peter LeonardThis week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with the legal and political dispute around Gazprom and Naftogaz in Kazakhstan. A court at the Astana International Financial Centre recognised a Swiss arbitration award of around $1.4 billion in favour of Ukraine’s Naftogaz against Russia’s Gazprom. But Kazakhstan’s justice minister later said the ruling would not be enforced, arguing that the dispute had no meaningful legal connection to Kazakhstan or the AIFC. We discuss why this matters, what the AIFC was created to do, and why the case exposes a tension between the centre’s international commercial-law ambitions and the Kazakh state’s political caution.
We then turn to new figures from the Eurasian Development Bank showing that trade between Central Asian countries has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching $12.3 billion in 2025. Kazakhstan remains the largest intra-regional exporter, followed by Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan’s role has grown sharply. The numbers are encouraging, but the baseline remains low. We discuss why intra-regional trade matters, how it differs from Central Asia’s raw-material exports to outside markets, and why barriers such as customs friction, poor infrastructure and border corruption still hold the region back.
In our interview slot, we speak with Johan Engvall, Deputy Research Director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, about his new report, Forming a New Central Asia: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Build Regional Order Under Multipolar Pressure. We discuss the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan axis, Uzbekistan’s post-2016 regional opening, the role of consultative meetings, the Middle Corridor, and whether Central Asia is becoming more capable of acting as a region rather than merely reacting to Russia, China and the West.
LINKS
* AIFC Court judgment in Naftogaz v Gazprom - https://court.aifc.kz/judgments/case-no-2-of-2026/
* Eurasian Development Bank Telegram post on intra-regional trade - https://t.me/eabr_bank/1266
* Johan Engvall’s report, Forming a New Central Asia - https://www.foi.se/en/foi/reports/report-summary.html?reportNo=FOI-R--5814--SE
Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe