This week’s episode of the Caps Unlock Podcast opened with a discussion of a major shift in Central Asia’s external economic orientation: China has overtaken Russia to become the region’s largest trading partner. Drawing on newly published trade data for 2025, the conversation examined what it means for China-Central Asia trade to surpass the $100 billion mark for the first time, and why that figure matters beyond headline symbolism.

The discussion explored the drivers behind this rapid expansion, including infrastructure investment linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, the spread of Chinese e-commerce platforms and payment systems across Central Asia, and the growing role of the region as a logistical corridor amid Western sanctions on Russia. Particular attention was paid to trade imbalances, anomalous export data from Kyrgyzstan, and the risk that deepening integration with China could harden into a new form of economic lock-in, even as regional governments continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy strategy.

The episode then turned to a very different, but equally revealing, regional trend: the rise of so-called “dropperstvo,” the use of intermediaries to move money in fraud schemes. Using a recent case announced by Kyrgyzstan’s security services as a starting point, the discussion traced how organised networks supply SIM cards, messaging accounts, and bank access to international scam operations. These networks allow fraudsters to distance themselves from financial trails by routing victim payments through “droppers”, often young people recruited to provide temporary access to their accounts.

A second case from Kazakhstan illustrated how the same mechanism appears in more mundane criminal activity, including, in one recent instance, the illegal sale of vapes using third-party payment accounts. The conversation explored why authorities in both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have moved to criminalise dropper activity itself, and why law enforcement increasingly treats this as a youth-risk and financial literacy problem rather than a purely technical crime.

In the interview segment, the podcast featured Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Central Asia, discussing his 2024 paper, “Between ‘info-killers’ and ‘spies’: three strategies for interviewing government officials across Central Asia.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Kurmanov outlined practical strategies for conducting sensitive interviews in environments marked by suspicion, weak research traditions, and political risk. The conversation focused on insider positionality, de-ceremonialising interviews, and depoliticising research questions, insights with relevance not only for academics, but also for journalists, policy researchers, and practitioners working with public institutions across the region.Links and further reading

* Report on China–Central Asia trade surpassing $100 billion (Xinhua or official customs data) - https://russian.news.cn/20260118/c13465d2d3b541f4a831f65849c8d70f/c.html

* Bloomberg report on Shell pausing investment in Kazakhstan - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/shell-to-pause-kazakh-oil-and-gas-investments-amid-disputes

* GKNB announcement on dismantling fraud network in Kyrgyzstan - https://24.kg/proisshestvija/360311_gruppu_postavlyavshuyu_telefonnyim_moshennikam_akkauntyi_iSIM-kartyi_zaderjali_vkr/

* Kazakhstan report on vape sales and dropper schemes - https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/afm/press/news/details/1148161?lang=ru

* Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, Between ‘info-killers’ and ‘spies’ (2024) - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02634937.2024.2375283

* Neil Collins, Elaine Sharplin, and Aziz Burkhanov (2023) — Challenges for political science research ethics in autocracies: A case study of Central Asia - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/14789299231153074

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This week’s episode opened with a discussion of Kazakhstan’s provisional landmark arbitration victory against foreign oil majors over disputed costs at the Karachaganak oil and gas field. We unpacked why the ruling matters not only for the billions of dollars potentially at stake, but also for what it signals politically.

Drawing on reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg, the conversation explored how the case reaches back into the era of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, how allegations of inflated or fictitious costs intersect with long-standing corruption concerns, and why the administration of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has framed the dispute as both a financial and moral reckoning. We also considered whether the ruling could meaningfully change how foreign investors behave in Kazakhstan’s extractive sector, or whether deeper structural incentives remain intact.

The discussion then turned to Kyrgyzstan’s decision to challenge Russia at the Eurasian Economic Union court over changes to access to state healthcare. A key clarification emerged early on: the issue is not that migrant workers themselves are being denied medical coverage, but that their dependents are no longer automatically entitled to state healthcare. We examined how this policy fits into Russia’s broader migration strategy, including recent data showing a sharp decline in the number of migrant children in the country. The episode explored what the case could mean for the credibility of the Eurasian Economic Union, whether the bloc’s legal commitments are being hollowed out in practice, and how the court’s eventual ruling could either reinforce or further undermine trust in regional integration frameworks.

In the interview segment, we spoke with Joe Luc Barnes, a journalist based in Almaty and the author of a recent article for The Times of Central Asia on declining reading habits in Kazakhstan. The conversation ranged from the economic pressures facing bookstores to the impact of currency weakness, e-commerce, and shifting language politics on the book market.

We discussed why Kazakhstan appears particularly affected by global declines in long-form reading, how the retreat of Russian-language publishing has not yet been offset by Kazakh-language production, and what this means for education, public discourse, and political literacy. Barnes also reflected on state-led reading initiatives, library usage statistics, and the longer-term risks of a society increasingly shaped by short-form, screen-driven information.

More reading

• Reuters reporting on the Karachaganak arbitration - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstan-tribunal-seeking-billions-oil-majors-cited-corrupt-officials-sources-2026-01-30/

• Bloomberg reporting on the Karachaganak arbitration - https://archive.is/PO6tN#selection-1177.0-1791.73

• Joe Luc Barnes’ article in The Times of Central Asia - https://timesca.com/the-battle-to-keep-kazakhstan-reading/

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The CAPS Unlock podcast returns after a long New Year break to track how an unsettled global agenda is pulling Central Asia into the fray.

We began with U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly launched Board of Peace, an initiative that started life as a Gaza oversight mechanism but quickly hardened into something broader: a leader-centric club with an unusually vague mandate and an unusually personalised governance model. The striking Central Asian angle is that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan did not just endorse the concept; their presidents travelled to Davos last week to sign the charter as founding members.

We looked at what each government said publicly, what it carefully avoided saying, and why joining could be read as low-cost insurance with a highly personalised U.S. administration, even if the move sits awkwardly with both countries’ recent emphasis on multilateralism and institutional predictability.

Next, we turned to a more familiar but still unsettling signal: the recent burst of openly imperial rhetoric from prominent Russian nationalist voices. Vladimir Solovyov, a well-known TV political talkshow presenter, publicly mused about extending “special military operations” to Central Asia and Armenia. A week later, Russia’s foreign ministry tried to wave it away as private opinion. Then Alexander Dugin went further, questioning the legitimacy of sovereign states across Central Asia and the South Caucasus altogether. We discussed why that official distancing rings hollow, what this kind of talk does even when it is not backed by action, and how it narrows the space for trust in the region’s already fragile security environment.

For our interview segment this week, we spoke with Juan Carlos Leunissen, an independent researcher who interned with CAPS Unlock last year, about his new essay for the CAPS Unlock website on the six narratives the European Union uses to justify its investment in the Trans-Caspian (Middle Corridor) route and why the story the EU tells about connectivity may matter as much as the infrastructure itself.

LINKS

• Juan Carlos Leunissen essay: The six stories the European Union tells about Trans-Caspian transport https://capsunlock.org/the-six-stories-the-european-union-tells-about-trans-caspian-transport/

• Abdulaziz Kamilov comments on Uzbekistan’s rationale for joining https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2026/01/23/abdulaziz-kamilov/

• CAPS Unlock LinkedIn page https://www.linkedin.com/company/capsunlockorg

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This end-of-year episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast is longer than usual, deliberately so.

As our final instalment of 2025, it takes stock of a year that reshaped Central Asia in ways that are still coming into focus. To help make sense of it, we were joined by CAPS Unlock co-founder and senior fellow and director of the Program on Central Asia at Harvard University’s Davis Center, Nargis Kassenova, whose perspective anchors a wide-ranging conversation that moves from borders and geopolitics to domestic politics, information space, and long-term structural change.

The first part of the episode revisits four dynamics that defined the region over the past year. We begin with regional integration, focusing on what was arguably the most consequential event of 2025: the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan border agreement. After decades of tension and periodic violence in the Ferghana Valley, the formal delimitation of the border marked a genuine regional breakthrough, with implications that extend far beyond bilateral relations.

From there, the discussion turns to political power and succession. Across the region, new figures, including presidential daughters, security chiefs, and long-standing insiders, are taking on more visible roles. Rather than signalling renewal, these shifts often reflect elite anxiety about managing succession under authoritarian conditions, with mixed results and few clear models for stability.

A third theme is the contraction of civic and media space. The episode examines recent crackdowns on independent journalism and political opposition, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and asks whether this tightening reflects short-term insecurity, technological disruption, or a more durable turn toward managed information environments.

The conversation then widens to geopolitics. From the EU–Central Asia summit in Samarkand to the C5+1 meeting in Washington, 2025 was dense with diplomatic choreography. While Central Asia continues to hedge between Russia, China, Europe, the United States, Turkey, and the Gulf, the episode probes whether this balancing act is translating into tangible gains, or merely new dependencies, against the backdrop of global instability.

In the second half of the episode, the focus turns inward. CAPS Unlock’s executive director, Aida Aidarkulova, joins the discussion to reflect on the organisation’s work over the past year: research projects, public events, translation initiatives, and efforts to strengthen regional policy communities. The conversation also looks ahead, outlining priorities for 2026 and the challenges facing independent analysis in Central Asia.

The episode closes with a forward-looking segment offering interpretive signposts rather than predictions; ways of thinking about how Central Asian societies are evolving, how geopolitics is reshaping the region’s options, and how technological change is creating both opportunity and risk.

This is the final CAPS Unlock podcast of 2025. We thank our listeners for their attention and support over the past year, wish you a restful holiday season, and look forward to continuing the conversation in the year ahead.

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This week’s episode opens on the frontier of Afghanistan and Tajikistan, where two late-November attacks on Chinese workers killed five people and injured several others at a gold mine and road-building site.

With both incidents allegedly involving fire from Afghan territory, almost no independent reporting, and only terse official statements to go on, the discussion probes what can be said with confidence: why the timing is so anomalous, how the violence cuts across Tajikistan’s cautious thaw with the Taliban, and what it might mean for China’s economic footprint and security demands in this hard-to-monitor borderland.

The focus then shifts to European Council President António Costa’s first official visit to Kazakhstan, billed as a celebration of ten years of the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The rhetoric about strategic partnership, green corridors and critical minerals is familiar; the more concrete news is the launch of talks on Schengen visa facilitation. The conversation asks whether easier travel and more direct flights could do more for Europe’s influence in Kazakhstan than another round of investment promises.

In the interview slot, Almaty-based human rights lawyer Tatiana Chernobil explains what is actually in Kazakhstan’s proposed “LGBT propaganda” amendments, and why the label itself is misleading.

She describes how nine existing laws and the Code of Administrative Offences would be tightened to conflate “non-traditional sexual orientation” with paedophilia, extend fines and short jail terms to individuals and businesses, and empower rewarded “public assistants” to report supposed violations. Chernobil argues that the real target is not just LBGT visibility but information control more broadly, with a chilling effect on teachers, journalists, activists and ordinary users online, and an uncomfortable convergence between Kazakhstan’s legal trajectory, Russian pressure and a cautious, economically minded European response.

LINKS

* Statement from the Presidential Administration of Tajikistan on the post-attack security meeting - https://president.tj/event/news/54027

* Official EU press release on António Costa’s visit to Kazakhstan - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/12/04/press-statement-by-president-antonio-costa-following-his-meeting-with-president-of-kazakhstan-kassym-jomart-tokayev-in-astana/

* Statement from the President of Kazakhstan’s office on the Costa visit - https://www.akorda.kz/ru/kasym-zhomart-tokaev-i-antoniu-koshta-vystupili-s-sovmestnym-zayavleniem-4114550

* UN Human Rights Council statement on LGBT propaganda amendments - https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/11/kazakhstan-proposed-lgbt-propaganda-law-risks-institutionalising

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This episode departs from our usual format. Instead of the standard three-segment structure, it’s a single extended conversation with Agnieszka Pikulicka, the journalist behind Turan Tales, a long-form newsletter and podcast examining underreported stories from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Her premise is straightforward but oddly rare: Central Asia should be treated as a region with its own internal dynamics, not as a footnote to someone else’s strategic narrative.

Agnieszka lived and reported in Uzbekistan for three years, until she was declared persona non grata in 2021. Her debut non-fiction book, Nowy Uzbekistan (New Uzbekistan), a Polish-language monograph published by Czarne in 2023, dissects the politics and lived realities of the Mirziyoyev period.

We discuss her recent move to Almaty, one of the few remaining workable bases for independent journalism in the region, and Turan Tales’ shift toward more ambitious audio documentaries, supported by the International Press Institute’s media innovation program. She argues that most coverage still reduces Central Asia to a handful of stock frames: pipelines, strongmen, and geopolitical anxiety. Whether that’s laziness or habit is debatable, but the effect is the same: people disappear from their own stories.

We also touch on figures who feature in earlier Turan Tales episodes, including Komil Allamjonov, whose role has changed since we recorded this conversation. He has now been appointed counsellor-envoy at Uzbekistan’s embassy in Washington and representative of the Presidential Administration in the United States.

LINKS:

• New format Turan Tales podcast produced with support from the International Press Institute

• Agnieszka’s book, Nowy Uzbekistan (New Uzbekistan) https://czarne.com.pl/katalog/ksiazki/nowy-uzbekistan

• Turan Tales episode on the assassination attempt against Komil Allamjonov

• Komil Allamjonov appointed counsellor-envoy in Washington https://www.gazeta.uz/en/2025/11/24/komil-allamjonov/

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Kazakhstan has now adopted a dedicated law on artificial intelligence, a step the government has been signalling for more than a year. Parliament approved the measure in October, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed it into force a few days before this episode was recorded.

The authorities present the legislation as a necessary foundation for developing the country’s AI sector. The stated aim is to create a clearer operating environment for businesses, attract international companies, and establish Kazakhstan as a regional leader in emerging technologies. The law follows a risk-based model similar to frameworks being developed in Europe and other jurisdictions.

One notable feature is the emphasis on self-assessment and voluntary compliance mechanisms for private companies. Businesses developing or deploying AI tools are expected to evaluate risks themselves and conduct audits on their own initiative.

Public debate around the legislation was limited, and many of the practical questions, such as implementation, safeguards, oversight, remain open. As the rule-making phase begins, these conversations are likely to become more prominent, especially as ministries, businesses, and civil society groups attempt to interpret how the framework will operate in practice.

This week’s interview steps away from abstractions and looks at a problem that is measurable in every breath taken in Almaty. Almaty Air Initiative chief executive Zhuldyz Saulebekova explains how the city’s air-quality crisis has moved from official denial to grudging acceptance, and why the real bottleneck now is political will rather than data. Fully 200 new sensors have generated unprecedented transparency, but little of that has translated into decisive action on winter pollution sources such as coal-burning households and the expensive “last mile” connections needed to make gasification real rather than statistical.

Saulebekova argues that activists have won the argument on awareness; whether they can force a shift in winter heating policy is the more consequential test.

The final segment turns to Kyrgyzstan, where a wave of arrests has landed on the eve of early parliamentary elections and amid a deepening electricity crisis.

Authorities may deny any political motivation, but the optics are hard to ignore: opposition figures rounded up under the familiar pretext of “preparing mass unrest” just as the country is rationing power, dimming streetlights, and cutting voltage to homes.

With water levels at the Toktogul hydropower plant at historic lows, cryptocurrency blamed for excessive consumption, and neighbours scrambling to supply emergency electricity, the government is signalling zero tolerance for protest at the moment when tempers are sharpest. Whether this produces stability or merely suppresses symptoms remains unclear.

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A sudden flare-up in Ukraine’s drone war has again rattled Central Asia’s energy nerves. This episode opens with a look at how Russian refinery shutdowns are rippling across the region. When the Novokuybyshevsk plant went offline after an October 19 strike, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are both reliant on Russia for more than 90 percent of their fuel, were left scrambling. Petrol rationing in Bishkek and mounting anxiety among traders reveal just how vulnerable those supply chains remain. And with Kazakhstan freezing domestic fuel prices to contain inflation, even its neighbours can’t count on emergency help. What begins as a refinery fire in Samara ends up exposing the region’s deeper dependence on Moscow’s infrastructure.

The episode’s centrepiece turns from crisis to creativity, featuring Marzhan Tajiyeva, Education Projects Coordinator at CAPS Unlock, on the launch of the Turn It Around! Central Asian Climate Cards, developed with UNESCO’s regional office. Created by young people from across six countries, the cards combine art and education to bring climate change into everyday lessons, in Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Uzbek, Russian, and even English. Tajiyeva explains how a child’s drawing of the Aral Sea can spark empathy, critical thinking, and even policy reflection, turning students into messengers of shared responsibility. The project, part of a global initiative led by Arizona State University, now anchors a growing regional alliance for climate education.

The final segment turns to football and politics. In Turkmenistan, the Asian Football Confederation has reportedly barred local clubs from hosting home games after inspectors condemned Arkadag’s flagship stadium, a supposed symbol of modernity, as unfit for play. The contrast with Almaty’s recent hosting of Real Madrid could hardly be sharper: FC Kairat’s Champions League adventure has become both a civic celebration and a study in political rehabilitation, as the club’s rise intertwines with the fortunes of its powerful backers. Even sport, it seems, can’t escape Central Asia’s habit of blending national pride with image-building and control.

LINKS:CAPS Unlock statement on Turn It Around! Central Asian Climate Cards - https://capsunlock.org/news/caps-unlock-and-unesco-unveil-central-asian-climate-cards-to-bring-climate-change-into-classrooms/Fergana News report on Arkadag Stadium and AFC ban – https://fergana.agency/news/141688/

Reuters reporting on Orenburg strike - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-cause-fire-russian-gas-plant-governor-says-2025-10-19/

Symbol of Science journal paper portraying Arkadag FC as a showcase of Turkmenistan’s modernisation drive - https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/arkadag-fc-turkmenistans-rapid-rise-in-football

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This week’s episode begins in Kyrgyzstan, where a brutal killing of a 17-year-old girl has reignited public fury and led President Sadyr Japarov to call for the return of the death penalty. The case has stirred intense debate about justice, morality, and political opportunism in a country that abolished executions nearly two decades ago. We look at how Japarov’s proposal both reflects and exploits public anger, and what it means for Kyrgyzstan’s already fragile constitutional order.

The discussion later shifts to Kazakhstan, where President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s recent dismissal of global climate policy as a “massive fraud” clashes with his government’s simultaneous effort to market the country as a renewable-energy hub. At the recently concluded Kazakhstan Energy Week, ministers touted new wind and solar projects even as coal expansion and data-hungry AI ambitions deepen the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. We ask whether Tokayev’s rhetoric marks a populist pivot or a pragmatic recalibration around “energy sovereignty.”

Our interview guest is Maria Adele Carrai, Assistant Professor of Global Chinese Studies at NYU Shanghai and co-director of Mapping Global China, an open-data platform that visualises Beijing’s global footprint. Carrai explains how the project uses satellite imagery and datasets to track China’s infrastructure, trade, and soft-power presence, from Kazakhstan to the Arctic, while inviting local researchers to contribute new “story maps.” She also discusses why portrayals of China as either a benign partner or a looming threat both miss the point.

Useful links

* Mapping Global China website – https://mapglobalchina.com/

* CAPS Unlock event summary of Maria Adele Carrai lecture in Almaty - https://capsunlock.org/mapping-global-china-a-new-lens-on-beijings-reach-in-central-asia/

* Kabar news agency interview with President Japarov - https://www.kabar.kg/news/el-menen-keneshebiz-prezident-olum-zhazasyn-kirgizuu-demilgesi-boyuncha-kommentariy-berdi/

* TV report on President Tokayev’s speech to the National Council for Science and Technology -

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This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with Kazakhstan’s ongoing fixation on artificial intelligence. Ever since President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made AI the centrepiece of his State of the Nation address, ministries and agencies have scrambled to demonstrate their own contributions. A new ministry has been promised, AI education standards announced, and schemes for agriculture, public administration, and even ethics frameworks unveiled. The rhetoric is upbeat: Tokayev warns that failure to embrace AI would leave Kazakhstan economically and politically marginalized. But beneath the noise lie concerns about jobs and feasibility. Officials estimate up to 1 million positions could be affected. We look at the data to ask which sectors are most exposed, how automation and AI differ, and why public sector employment makes this such a politically charged issue.

Our interview segment features Asel Mussagulova, lecturer at the University of Sydney and co-author of a new paper on Kazakhstan’s policy advisory systems. She explains how state-backed research institutes, directly funded and supervised by government bodies, almost inevitably reinforce official narratives and avoid criticism. Staffing choices, internal censorship, and oversight mechanisms mean their studies often legitimise decisions already taken. Yet Mussagulova also describes how financially independent research organisations, such as the emerging generation of private think tanks, can still offer more candid advice, sometimes by engaging public opinion or leveraging international connections. The picture that emerges is less monolithic than often assumed: authoritarian regimes seek legitimacy through research, but pockets of independence persist.

We close with Kyrgyzstan, where parliament has (as of September 25, following our recording) dissolved itself, one year early. Deputies argue the move will streamline election timing by avoiding back-to-back parliamentary and presidential votes, while reforms to the electoral law promise greater gender representation and easier participation for citizens abroad. But by abolishing party lists in favour of hyperlocal constituencies, the reform strengthens district-level politics at the expense of national parties. In practice, this risks leaving Kyrgyzstan with a quieter, more compliant parliament, one shaped less by vigorous debate and more by presidential authority.

Links

* Mussagulova & Janenova, Management and Quality of Policy Advisory Systems in Kazakhstan: The Case of Public and Private Research Organizations (Policy and Society, 2025): https://academic.oup.com/policyandsociety/advance-article/doi/10.1093/polsoc/puaf025/8236331

* IMF 2023 AI Preparedness Index (DataMapper): https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/AI_PI@AIPI/ADVEC/EME/LIC

* ILO study on AI and jobs: https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-05/WP140_web.pdf

* Acemoglu & Johnson, Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity (2023): https://www.amazon.com/Power-Progress-Thousand-Year-Technology-Prosperity/dp/1399804472

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