CAPS Unlock Podcast

In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast we temporarily step away from our usual format for the first in a short series recorded on the sidelines of the international conference, Toward New Transnational/Transimperial Histories of Central Asia: Sources, Directions, Interpretations, which took place at Nazarbayev University in Astana, Kazakhstan, on August 20–22.

We speak to Roman Osharov, a DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford whose work examines how the Russian Empire produced knowledge about Central Asia in the nineteenth century; Daniel Scarborough, Associate Professor of Russian History and Religion at Nazarbayev University; and Gavin Slade, Associate Professor of Sociology at Nazarbayev University and co-lead of the Central Asia’s Gulag project.

The conversation centred on the nuts and bolts of doing history from the archives. We discuss how access varies across the region; the relative ease of Kazakhstan (with longer lead times and embassy paperwork), the difficulty and unpredictability of Uzbekistan’s main historical archive in Tashkent, and the near-impossibility of working in Turkmenistan, and why professional conduct in reading rooms matters for everyone’s access. Our guests offer pragmatic advice for younger researchers: start with national libraries and home-institution holdings; learn (and use) non-Russian languages where possible; and plan for multi-month stints once you do enter archives.

We also look beyond the archive. Slade explained how archaeological survey, mapping, museum studies, and oral history can “triangulate” fragmentary files on sites like Karlag (one of the largest Gulag labour camp systems in the Soviet Union, located in central Kazakhstan) yielding grounded insights into camp layouts, daily labour, and living memory in former Gulag villages. Scarborough reflects on the dominance of Russian-language materials and ways to recover Central Asian voices; Osharov describes manuscript collections and periodicals in Persian and Turkic that can rebalance the record, and the challenge of doing so while working within “Russian history” as a field.

We close on the state of play: a moment of opportunity in Kazakhstan (and, to a degree, Kyrgyzstan), tempered by fragility elsewhere, and a gentle plea to researchers not to jeopardise that access.

Stay tuned for more conversations from the Toward New Transnational/Transimperial Histories of Central Asia conference in coming episodes.

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In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we break with our usual format to bring you a wide-ranging long-form conversation with Bruce Pannier, veteran Central Asia watcher and a newly minted Research Fellow at the Yorktown Institute’s Turan Research Center.

Pannier reflects on three decades of reporting and analysis, from his early days gathering scraps of information in the pre-internet 1990s to today’s denser, more contested media landscape.

We explore how both Central Asian regimes and audiences have changed over time, the new sophistication of state information control, and the shifting boundaries of censorship, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

We also examine how growing geopolitical autonomy, deepening partnerships with Gulf states and China, and a rising standard of living shape domestic politics.

Finally, we look to the future: Will Central Asia become more technocratic, more pious, or both? And what happens when tomorrow’s leaders know both global capitalism and the Quran? It’s a candid, thoughtful exchange with someone who has seen it all.

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This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast takes us from the heat-blasted plains of Turkmenistan to the mineral riches of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and then to end, back to Bishkek’s street theatre of power.

We begin with a dive into the mooted trans-Afghan railway, a project once seen as fantasy that now edges closer to reality. We discuss Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s newly signed agreement to launch feasibility studies for the 700-kilometre route. Could this long-touted project finally break Uzbekistan out of its geographic deadlock, or will questions over security, financing, and the Taliban’s international status keep it grounded?

In our interview segment, we speak with Roman Vakulchuk, head of the Climate and Energy Research Group at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Vakulchuk talks us through his new paper on the European Union’s cooperation with Central Asia on critical raw materials. Despite high-level rhetoric and investment pledges under the Global Gateway, the EU lags behind China and the U.S. in concrete deals. Vakulchuk explores why, and outlines the small, smart policy moves Brussels could make to regain ground, starting with visa reform.

We close with a character study of Kamchybek Tashiyev, head of Kyrgyzstan’s security services, who once again made headlines by publicly dressing down a city official over a fenced-off plot of land. Was it law enforcement, political theatre, or both? We examine how Kyrgyz power now plays out not in parliament, but on camera, and what that says about elite dynamics across the region.

Useful links:

Start Slow to Go Fast? Unlocking EU–Central Asia Cooperation on Critical Materials https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/bruessel/22082.pdf

The other president of Kyrgyzstan: https://havli.substack.com/p/the-other-president-of-kyrgyzstan

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This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we explore a consolidating trend that could redefine Central Asia’s place on the map, not just as a post-Soviet periphery, but as a key connector to South Asia and beyond.

But we open with a dispatch about CAPS Unlock activities Astana, where we just wrapped up a rule-of-law training for young professionals.

Then, attention turns southward. First to a Russia–Uzbekistan business forum in Novosibirsk, where Russia made a play to reinsert itself into Afghan-bound trade, and then to Termez, the Uzbek city now at the heart of a regional reimagination.

In our interview segment, we speak to Eldaniz Gusseinov, a Kazakh expert on regional politics and non-resident research fellow at the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies. Gusseinov unpacks the significance of the Termez Dialogue, a quiet but ambitious platform aimed at boosting Central–South Asian connectivity. He discusses how countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are positioning themselves as middle powers by investing in Afghan trade routes and infrastructure, even amid regional volatility and Taliban realpolitik.

Finally, we examine U.S.–Kazakhstan tensions after President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25 percent tariffs on Kazakh exports. Despite what may be minimal economic impact (although this is uncertain), the move sends confused signals about Washington’s Central Asia policy, particularly after recent diplomatic overtures. We weigh the symbolism, the snub, and what Kazakhstan’s mild-mannered response reveals.

Useful links:

CAPS Unlock Instagram account: https://www.instagram.com/capsunlock_org/Kazakhstan reacts to Trump tariff threats: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstans-leader-tells-trump-that-he-hopes-compromise-new-us-tariffs-2025-07-10/Report on Uzbek-Russian business forum in Novosibirsk (Russian): https://asia24.media/news/v-novosibirske-proshel-pervyy-biznes-forum-s-uchastiem-predstaviteley-uzbekistana-i-sibiri/Op-ed on Termez Dialogue written by Uzbek government official: https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/21/termez-dialogue-in-search-of-a-new-paradigm-for-central-and-south-asian-relations

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This week we are looking at three very different but equally revealing stories from across Central Asia.

First, we begin in Kyrgyzstan, where parliament passed a new law banning the online distribution of pornographic content. On the face of it, this may seem like a niche issue, but it speaks volumes about the evolving moral agenda of President Sadyr Japarov’s administration. Although proponents claim the law will uphold national values and protect youth, critics argue it is largely symbolic, and easily circumvented with VPNs.

Later, we turn to climate change, and in particular, a sobering new World Bank report titled Unlivable: How Heat is Reshaping Cities in Europe and Central Asia. The report warns of rising death tolls, falling labour productivity, and overwhelmed healthcare systems as heat stress intensifies across the region. But it also offers hope, so long as authorities act thoughtfully through tree-planting, housing upgrades, and local governance reform. We explore what solutions are on the table and whether Central Asia’s institutions are agile enough to act on them in time.

In our interview segment, we speak with Marco Beretta, president of the Italian-Kazakh Trade Association. Beretta shares insights into how Italy’s deepening commercial relationship with Kazakhstan is expanding beyond hydrocarbons. He discusses emerging investment in biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, and small-to-medium enterprises. We also reflect on the significance of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s visit to Astana in May and what it revealed about European strategic interests in the so-called Middle Corridor.

Suggested reading

Unlivable: How Cities in Europe and Central Asia Can Survive and Thrive in a Hotter Future https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/unlivable-how-cities-in-europe-and-central-asia-can-survive-and-thrive-in-a-hotter-future

Central Asia Barometer research on domestic violence and online content https://ca-barometer.org/assets/files/froala/207fb9867dee0c7a6e8f0968e4cd2acd4a16895d.pdf

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This week, we focus on one major theme: China’s evolving relationship with Central Asia. The episode centres on the China–Central Asia summit held last week in Astana and features an extended interview with Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a leading expert on China’s role in the region.

We unpack what’s new and what’s not in Beijing’s outreach, from 35 percent trade growth since the last summit to Xi Jinping’s pledges of 3,000 training spots and 1.5 billion yuan in “livelihood projects.” The episode explores the deeper story behind the formal rhetoric; particularly the establishment of a China–Central Asia secretariat and the signing of a Treaty of Eternal Good-Neighbourliness.

The conversation takes a critical look at how much Central Asia is shaping this agenda versus simply reacting to it. While elites increasingly articulate their own wish lists (such as Tajikistan’s call for green AI infrastructure), Umarov argues that meaningful local agency is more visible behind the scenes, including through protest dynamics and elite negotiation.

We also discuss China’s soft power strategy, shifts in public attitudes, and the dangers of dependency, especially in the digital realm. As Chinese infrastructure projects gain speed across the region, questions about transparency, workforce inclusion, and long-term sovereignty loom large.

In sum, this episode asks: Is Central Asia becoming a corridor, or a partner? And can it remain a free agent in a world of increasingly strategic patrons?

Useful links:

CAPS Unlock & Internet Society, Kazakhstan’s Internet Landscape: Understanding Threats and Opportunities

https://capsunlock.org/publications/kazakhstan-internet-landscape-understanding-threats-and-opportunities/

Berikbol Dukeyev, How Local Realities Compelled China to Adapt Its Soft-Power Strategy in Kazakhstan

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/09/kazakhstan-china-soft-power-adaptation?lang=en

Oxus Society Protest Tracker

https://oxussociety.org/viz/protest-tracker/

Odil Gafarov, Boots on the Ground: What Chinese Private Security Contractors Do in Central Asia

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/07/china-private-security-central-asia?lang=en

Minning Town (Chinese rural development drama referenced by Xi Jinping)

World Bank, Country Economic Memorandum 2025: Kyrgyz Republic

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/kyrgyzrepublic/publication/cem-2025

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This week’s CAPS Unlock takes us east, to a country often left out of Central Asia’s story: Mongolia. We speak to Chimguundari Navaan-Yunden, a former advisor to the Mongolian prime minister, about her recent article exploring Mongolia’s foreign policy realignment toward Central Asia.

From efforts to expand rail and trade links, to high-level diplomacy and civic vibrancy, Mongolia offers a sharp contrast to its authoritarian neighbours.

And CAPS Unlock program coordinator Tlegen Kuandykov shares fresh impressions from his first visit to Mongolia and reflects on the political and cultural commonalities (and differences) that shape the Greater Central Asia debate.Links:Mongolia’s Pivot to Central Asia and the Caucasus: Strategic Realignments and Regional Implications: https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13871-mongolia%E2%80%99s-pivot-to-central-asia-and-the-caucasus-strategic-realignments-and-regional-implications.html

Freedom in the World 2025: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2025/uphill-battle-to-safeguard-rights

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This week, an unusual edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast. I speak to Daniel Rosenblum, the recently retired U.S. ambassador to both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, about his decades-long engagement with Central Asia and the future of U.S. foreign policy in the region.

We begin with Rosenblum’s personal journey, shaped by his family’s early activism for Soviet Jewry, and trace his career through labour union work, U.S. foreign assistance partnerships, and ultimately diplomacy. He reflects on the enduring goals of U.S. policy in Central Asia and the tensions between supporting democratic governance and engaging in hard-headed security cooperation.

We also talk about the long arc of independence in Central Asia: how countries like Kazakhstan have learned to walk a diplomatic tightrope between great powers, why Uzbekistan’s reforms remain significant despite backsliding, and whether the West sometimes judges the region too harshly. Finally, Rosenblum shares his views on the dismantling of USAID under the Trump administration and what might be lost if the U.S. abandons its development commitments.

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This week’s episode opens with a conversation about an intensifying environmental threat in Central Asia: sand and dust storms. A major storm hit Tashkent last week, felling trees, halting flights, and triggering dangerous air pollution levels. The discussion explores long-term drivers of this trend, from climate change and Aral Sea degradation to unchecked urban construction. We examine how countries like Uzbekistan are responding with national greening strategies, and where political will may be falling short.

In a second segment, we turn to Uzbekistan’s push to become a tourism hotspot. A new presidential decree aims to attract 16 million foreign visitors by the end of 2025. The episode discusses how this is being pursued through visa liberalisation, promotion campaigns, and even new “tourist villages.” But questions remain about whether the growth model is too top-down, and whether domestic tourism can be part of the solution.

This week’s interview features Callum Voge, director of Governmental Affairs and Advocacy, and Amreesh Phokeer, Internet Measurement and Data Expert, both from the Internet Society. We discuss a new report that they produced in collaboration with CAPS Unlock on Kazakhstan’s digital infrastructure and internet vulnerabilities. Topics include the country’s high telecom concentration, reliance on Russian infrastructure, surveillance capabilities such as root certificate programs, and the promise (and risks) of new routing alternatives through the Caspian and China. The guests also assess what true resilience would look like, and why decentralisation matters for both privacy and economic growth.

Useful readingUNCCD: Regional Strategy for Sand and Dust Storms in Central Asia https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2022-10/Regional%20strategy_SDS_%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B3%D0%BB_print.pdfBringing life back to Central Asia's desertified Aral Sea (Deutsche Welle) https://www.dw.com/en/the-aral-sea-from-lake-to-desert-to-forest/a-70987224

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This week’s episode opens with a look at Kazakhstan’s oil production surge and the geopolitical and economic ramifications of the country’s deviation from OPEC+ production quotas. Despite a formal commitment to restraint, Kazakhstan reached record-breaking oil output in March and remained well above quota in May. The discussion considers whether the move reflects nervousness in Astana about slowing GDP growth and growing public discontent over inflation, as captured in a recent report by United Research Technologies Group. The report highlights a gap between official narratives and lived experience, suggesting that the government may be prioritising short-term fiscal relief through oil sales, even at the risk of undermining cartel solidarity.

In a second segment, we explore a newly published academic paper, titled Bumps Along the Golden Road: Unpacking Sinophobic Sentiments in Central Asia, 2002–2023. The paper draws on protest data, survey results, and dozens of interviews to argue that anti-China sentiment has been steadily rising across the region. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan remain focal points for street protests, while Uzbekistan’s xenophobic discourse is increasingly expressed via social media. But the episode also raises questions about how far these attitudes are generalisable, and how much they may reflect temporary surges of online outrage rather than structural geopolitical mistrust.

In this week’s interview, we speak with Merete Looft, a campaigner at environmental NGO Urgewald, about Kazakhstan’s potential inclusion in the Asian Development Bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism. Looft explains how the ETM seeks to retire coal plants early in favour of renewable energy, but she warns that without stricter safeguards, it risks funnelling money to fossil fuel firms with expansionist agendas. Drawing on Urgewald’s own research and coal industry tracking tools, she outlines what activists are watching for as feasibility studies proceed, and what a truly just transition should look like.

Useful links

• Central Asia Barometer research on attitudes toward China - https://capsunlock.org/publications/beyond-the-silk-road-navigating-the-complexities-of-central-asias-public-opinion-on-china/

• United Research Technologies Group report on economic sentiment in Kazakhstan (in Russian) - https://urtg.org/research-result/indikator-ekonomicheskih-nastroenij-kazahstana-maj-2025/

• Urgewald’s critique of the ADB’s Energy Transition Mechanism - https://www.urgewald.org/sites/default/files/media-files/urgewald_ADB_ETM_Paper.pdf

• Europe-Asia Studies article: Bumps Along the Belt and Road - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09668136.2025.2486300?src=exp-la

• Book: Backlash: China’s Struggle for Influence in Central Asia, by Bradley Jardine and Edward Lemon - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/backlash/

• Gazeta.uz article about wave of anti-Chinese sentiment online - https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2025/03/11/china-uzbekistan/

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