CAPS Unlock Podcast

This week’s episode opens with reflections on Victory Day, observed annually on May. This year marked the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II, and once again the leaders of all five Central Asian republics attended Moscow’s parade. Yet beneath the rituals of state ceremony lie increasingly contested memories and shifting sentiments. The discussion draws on historian Vicky Davis’ book Central Asia and World War Two, which documents not only the human cost of the war in the region, but the systemic discrimination faced by Central Asian soldiers within the Red Army. In Kazakhstan and elsewhere, the official narrative is under pressure. While many continue to view the day as one of solemn remembrance, the war’s politicization, especially in light of Russia’s current conflict in Ukraine, is sparking discomfort, quiet resistance, and attempts to nationalise the commemorative agenda.

The episode also turns to a notable development in regional fintech. Kyrgyzstan has announced a partnership with Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, to jointly develop a national digital currency system. The centrepiece of this collaboration is the “Gold Dollar” (USDKG), a new stablecoin backed by both US dollar reserves and physical gold held by Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Finance. The project positions Kyrgyzstan as a nimble actor in the evolving digital economy and raises important questions about remittances, regulation, and sovereignty in financial infrastructure.

In this week’s interview, we speak with Sophie Ibbotson, the author of a newly released Bradt guidebook to Uzbekistan. The conversation covers her long-standing relationship with the country, the risks of overtourism and “disneyfication,” and why lesser-known regions like Termez and the Fergana Valley deserve more attention from travellers.

Useful links

* Central Asia and World War Two by Vicky Davis: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/central-asia-in-world-war-two-9781350372306/

* Economist article on stablecoins: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/23/stablecoins-the-real-crypto-craze

* Bradt Travel Guide to Uzbekistan: https://www.bradtguides.com/product/uzbekistan

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This week’s episode opens with a look at an intriguing, if vague, agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan to jointly manage the Amu Darya river basin. Though details remain scarce, the deal suggests a growing willingness by both countries to cooperate on the region’s most urgent environmental and water management challenges.

The conversation then turns to the World Bank’s latest economic update on Europe and Central Asia (ECA), which paints a mixed picture for Central Asia. While the region may avoid the worst of the projected ECA-wide slowdown, the report identifies serious vulnerabilities, including declining trade with Russia, falling remittances, and the waning returns of the post-sanctions re-export boom. Particularly notable is the warning about the region’s “productivity trap”: too many small, inefficient firms and too little innovation. In a nod to the region’s better prospects, the episode highlights growing intra-regional trade and the potential benefits of global economic fragmentation.

For this week’s interview, we also spoke with Aynabat Yaylymova, founder and executive director of Progres Foundation. She shared sobering insights into Turkmenistan’s information black hole. The conversation explores the real-world costs of this digital repression, from public health setbacks to economic stagnation. The interview also touches on Turkmenistan’s plans for a national digital network and the state’s growing control over an increasingly isolated and unequal online space.

The episode closes with a discussion of AI-generated fake videos in Kazakhstan, particularly around Victory Day. The fakes, which featured governors from Russian-bordering provinces, highlight how generative AI is being used to manipulate sensitive historical narratives and further destabilise trust in information. While government responses have been swift, the deeper challenge lies in building a healthy media ecosystem, something Kazakhstan is still struggling to achieve.

Useful links:

Kyrgyzstan’s trade with Central Asian countries: https://capsunlock.org/publications/kyrgyzstans-trade-with-central-asian-countries-barriers-and-opportunities/UN submission on Turkmenistan internet repression: https://progres.online/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Turkmenistan-Internet-Shutdowns-Impact-Development.pdfRSF World Press Freedom Index 2025: https://rsf.org/en/rsf-world-press-freedom-index-2025-economic-fragility-leading-threat-press-freedom

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In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we tackled three stories that reveal the evolving pressures, and ambitions, shaping Central Asia’s future.

We began in Kyrgyzstan, where authorities recently arrested a freelance employee from the Russian cultural centre in Osh on charges of recruiting mercenaries for Russia’s war in Ukraine. It is the country’s first high-profile case of this kind. Similar concerns are mounting in Kazakhstan, where a Ukrainian Telegram channel has published lists of hundreds of alleged Kazakh, Tajik and (since the time of recording) Uzbek fighters. Investigations by journalist Lukpan Akhmedyarov suggest many were coerced, misled or lured by promises of citizenship and pay. Despite official denials, the issue has sparked uncomfortable questions about recruitment networks, state complicity, and regional responses to illegal military mobilisation.

Next, we spoke with Mihra Rittmann, Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, about Kazakhstan’s increasingly hostile stance toward civil society. Rittmann detailed proposed “foreign agents” legislation, ongoing harassment of journalists, and the recent sentencing of satirical blogger Temirlan Ensebek, all signs, she says, of a deeper authoritarian turn.

We ended on a note of guarded optimism: a $500 million pledge from Kazakhstan to help build a railway through western Afghanistan to Pakistan. The project would give Central Asia access to seaports and, if realised, shift the region’s trade geography. We discuss the legal safeguards involved, how this compares to Russia–Uzbekistan plans, and why optimism must be tempered with realism when it comes to Afghan infrastructure.

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In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we unpack a string of developments that reveal the shifting geopolitics of sovereignty, identity and migration in Central Asia.

We begin with an eyebrow-raising rebuke from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, directed at Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. In a recent interview, Lavrov questioned Tokayev’s position on territorial integrity, a principle the Kazakh leader has consistently endorsed. He most notably reiterated this stance during the 2022 St Petersburg Economic Forum, while sitting just a few feet from Russian President Vladimir Putin. This episode examines Lavrov’s remarks and considers what may have prompted them. One theory is that he was seeking to exploit tensions with Turkey over Northern Cyprus, an issue that indirectly touches on concerns shared by several Central Asian states.

In the second half of the episode, we turn to a disturbing case of police brutality against Kyrgyz migrants in Moscow. A recent raid on a bathhouse saw dozens of men assaulted, humiliated and allegedly tortured. The incident reflects a wider trend of rising hostility towards Central Asian migrants in Russia, particularly in the wake of a terrorist attack near Moscow in March 2024. We discuss recent changes to Russia’s migration laws, the political motivations behind the crackdown, and why, despite worsening conditions, many Central Asians continue to travel to Russia for work.

This episode also features an interview with economist Kanat Tilekeyev, a scholar at the University of Central Asia, who shares insights from his latest research on Kyrgyzstan’s evolving role in regional trade.

Useful links:

* Lavrov’s Kommersant interview: https://vkvideo.ru/video-23482909_456261207?ref_domain=kommersant.ru

* CAPS Unlock analytical note by Kanat Tilekeyev: https://capsunlock.org/publications/kyrgyzstans-trade-with-central-asian-countries-barriers-and-opportunities/

* Article by Tilekeyev on Kyrgyzstan’s trade agenda: https://capsunlock.org/kyrgyzstans-re-export-model-a-blessing-and-a-curse/

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This episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast returns to the landmark EU–Central Asia Summit held in Samarkand earlier this month, exploring the contours of Brussels’ latest overtures to the region.

The summit brought together the five Central Asian presidents and top EU leadership, who jointly proclaimed a new “strategic partnership.” A headline €12 billion pledge under the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative includes funds for infrastructure, climate action, and digital connectivity. But amid limited media access and muted coverage, questions remain over how tangible – and how inclusive – these pledges will be.

Attending the summit in person (sort of) gave us a first-hand view of how the tightly managed event contrasted with the EU’s stated goals of openness and cooperation.

But how much of an impact did all this really make in the region?

This episode also features a special interview with Aleška Simkić, the EU Ambassador to the Republic of Kazakhstan. She discusses ongoing negotiations to simplify Schengen visa procedures for Kazakh citizens, the political significance of person-to-person exchanges, and the EU’s long-term plans to invest in critical raw materials. Simkić outlines why the EU believes this is about partnership – not dependency – and how European engagement could offer a different model to that of other major powers.

We also reference, at the start of the episode, a worrying report about an unseasonal heatwave that struck Central Asia last month. Read more here: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/

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In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two separate but revealing stories that show how Central Asia is being shaped by forces well beyond its borders, be they military drones (launched by either Russia or Ukraine) or canals being built by Afghanistan.

The episode opens with a discussion of the latest drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure in southern Russia. Although these attacks are part of Ukraine’s effort to weaken the Russian energy system, they are directly affecting Kazakhstan, which relies heavily on this route to export its oil. With foreign energy companies like Chevron, Shell, and Eni invested in the pipeline, the implications are not just regional, but international.

Kazakhstan’s muted reaction to these attacks stands out. Even after three incidents, most recently on March 24, Astana has refrained from issuing strong condemnations, a strategy the hosts interpret as an attempt to quietly ride out the storm. But as we discuss, this low-key approach may be tested as the attacks continue. Meanwhile, stray drones, possibly originating from either side of the war, have landed inside Kazakhstan’s own territory, raising security concerns among the public and prompting questions about the country’s air defense preparedness.

The second half of the podcast turns to water politics, specifically the impact of Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal. This massive infrastructure project, underway since early 2022, is designed to divert water from the Amu Darya river to irrigate farmland in northern Afghanistan. While this may help Afghan farmers, it spells serious trouble downstream.

Uzbekistan, the main user of Amu Darya waters, is particularly vulnerable. The canal could significantly reduce the river’s flow, adding to the pressures already imposed by climate change. Yet, rather than raise alarm, Uzbek officials are opting for calm engagement. In a rare public statement on March 18, the country’s water minister emphasised dialogue and described his recent visits to Afghanistan for talks with the Taliban authorities as cordial.

In the podcast, we explore the diplomatic backdrop, noting that while historic treaties between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union addressed river borders and water quality, they never tackled water allocation. With Afghanistan now actively developing the river, the absence of such agreements is becoming urgent. Uzbekistan’s strategy appears twofold: work quietly to maintain relations with Kabul, while pushing ahead with domestic reforms to improve water efficiency and infrastructure.

The episode closes with a broader reflection on how Central Asia’s future may be shaped less by dramatic ruptures than by creeping transformations, in diplomacy, infrastructure, and ecology. Both topics underline the region’s challenge of navigating powerful external currents while preserving internal stability.

Mentioned reports:

Water Resource Development in Northern Afghanistan and Its Implications for Amu Darya Basin: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/434761468767735080/pdf/297030PAPER0Water0resource0Amu0Darya.pdf

Impacts of the Qosh Tepa Canal and Climate Change on Water Availability – German Economic Team: https://www.german-economic-team.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/GET_UZB_PB_05_2023_en.pdf

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In this special edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, you will hear a frontline report and in-depth discussion of one of the most significant regional developments in Central Asia in years: the signing of a border demarcation agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Partially recorded from the Al-Archa presidential complex in Bishkek, the episode opens with audio impressions from the day of the treaty signing, an event that marked the symbolic and practical reopening of a once-volatile border. The episode then transitions to an interview with two expert guests: former Kyrgyz ambassador to the United States and one-time journalist Kadyr Toktogulov and Tajik independent analyst Muslimbek Buriyev.

Together, they explore the significance of the treaty, the regional momentum it has created, and the delicate but determined diplomacy that brought two previously antagonistic neighbours to the negotiating table. Toktogulov and Buriyev express cautious optimism that the deal will lead to increased trade, improved cross-border relations, and a fresh narrative for the densely populated and geopolitically sensitive Fergana Valley.

The conversation also considers the broader implications: the potential for trilateral cooperation with Uzbekistan, the symbolic importance of the region resolving its own disputes without external mediation, and how enhanced economic interdependence could help defuse future tensions.

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This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast delves into the freshly agreed Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border treaty, which will almost have been signed by the countries’ president soon after this edition is released, and Uzbekistan’s anti-corruption shake-up.

And for this week’s interview, we speak with Aizhan Alzhanova, a representative of Mama Pro, a Kazakhstan-based organisation dedicated to supporting mothers of children with special needs.

With all discussions on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border now concluded, attention is turning to technicalities related to trade, logistics, and energy. One notable development is Kyrgyzstan’s proposal to serve as a “green corridor” for Tajik goods entering the Eurasian Economic Union – an idea that raises questions about Moscow’s stance on the matter.

Beyond trade, diplomatic efforts are also opening up long-shut transport routes. The long-awaited reopening of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border and the resumption of flights between Bishkek and Dushanbe could mark a turning point for connectivity in the region. These steps aim to super-charge trade to $500 million by 2030. That is a colossal amount compared to what trade is done now.

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev bared his teeth addressing the National Anti-Corruption Council last week. In a tetchy speech, he declared the current fight against graft ineffective and promptly dismissed 117 anti-corruption officials from various government agencies. These positions, introduced in 2023, were meant to provide internal oversight, but their removal suggests either signs of fracture among the ruling elite or, more simply, a failure of decentralised enforcement.

Despite these setbacks, Mirziyoyev highlighted some positive trends, claiming $1.1 billion was saved in 2024 through transparency reforms in public procurement and licensing processes. However, the scale of the problem remains immense. Official data from January revealed that 5,000 officials were prosecuted for corruption last year, a 37 percent increase from the previous year.

In her interview to CAPS Unlock, Aizhan Alzhanova, project development manager at Mama Pro, spoke about how some mothers with the complicated challenge of raising children with disabilities have managed, despite their difficulties, to build successful businesses. They have done so with help from Alzhanova’s organisation, which provides business training, psychological support, and a strong community network to help women raising children with special needs achieve financial independence.If you have any feedback, please contact us at [email protected]

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In this episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, hosts Peter Leonard and Tlegen Kuandykov unpack two fascinating geopolitical developments in Central Asia: a (very) long-negotiated border agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan’s deepening railway ties with Afghanistan.

The episode opens with an in-depth discussion on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border deal, a historic agreement that could finally resolve decades of disputes in the Fergana Valley. We explore what led to this breakthrough, how the agreement balances land exchanges, and the political dynamics shaping its ratification. While optimism is warranted, concerns remain about whether local communities’ interests will be considered and whether Kyrgyzstan’s increasingly authoritarian government will allow open debate on the deal.

In this week’s interview, we speak with Kuanysh Tastanbekova, a native of Kazakhstan and a scholar at Japan’s University of Tsukuba, to discuss how climate change education is taught in Japan and what lessons Kazakhstan can learn. From hands-on environmental awareness to fostering a culture of mindful consumption, Tastanbekova highlights why Kazakhstan’s education system needs to better connect theory to real-world issues like waste management and water conservation.

The conversation then shifts to Afghanistan’s growing role in Central Asian connectivity. Uzbekistan recently signed a deal with the Taliban-led regime to extend a railway line from Hairatan to Herat, a move that could link Central Asia more directly with the Persian Gulf. We look at how this fits into broader ambitions to integrate Central Asia into South Asian trade networks, reducing dependency on Russia and China. However, logistical and soft infrastructure challenges – such as customs procedures and political stability in Afghanistan – could slow progress.

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In this episode of the Caps Unlock podcast, we first turn our attention to the fallout from a Ukrainian drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a crucial oil transit route for Kazakhstan. With potential losses in the billions, the attack puts Kazakhstan in a diplomatic bind between Ukraine, Russia, and Western energy interests. Kazakhstan is playing cool for now. But why?

Next, we feature an interview with Azhar Baisalova, a representative from MoveGreen, a Bishkek-based NGO advocating for better air quality. Baisalova highlights the severe health risks posed by air pollution, the lack of reliable official data, and the economic cost of pollution in the region. The conversation also covers ongoing efforts to transition away from coal, promote sustainable urban transport, and expand gasification programs.

To end with, the podcast shifts to Kyrgyzstan, where authorities plan to integrate school surveillance cameras into the Interior Ministry’s monitoring system. The move is framed as a child protection measure but raises concerns about privacy and government overreach.

For feedback or inquiries (or complaints), please reach out by email to [email protected].

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