Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • ANAB Stock: $5.11 EPS Is the Wrong Headline — AnaptysBio Q2 2026
    AnaptysBio, Inc. (ANAB) Q2 2026 — September 21 close $54.99, down 0.39%; the release-session label is unverified, so this is not necessarily a clean post-print reaction baseline.
    Anaptys reported $5.11 of Q2 diluted EPS, but a $181.491M tax benefit drove the profit. The real value remains the post-Sagard Jemperli royalty stream, under an agreement now in unresolved litigation.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$58.00 vs ~$54.99 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q2 collaboration revenue $27.488M, +23.5% YoY
    - H1 Jemperli global sales $644.1M, +30.3% YoY
    - Q2 pretax loss $4.174M before $181.491M tax benefit
    - June cash + investments $164.143M
    - Sagard earned about $302.5M through June
    - GSK/Tesaro hearing scheduled October 20, 2026
    - HOLD 3/5; $58 base / $55.50 weighted / $25–$95 scenarios
    What to watch: Read the actual litigation order, grade AZUR-1 and Quimilza decisions, and track Sagard paydown against H2 2027.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/anab-q2-2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • ABVX Stock: The Runway Is Funded. Can Obefazimod Earn It? — Q2 2026
    Abivax S.A. (ABVX) Q2 2026 — September 21 saved close $103.45, down 1.51% from $105.04. SEC acceptance metadata and the issuer release dateline conflict, so no reaction baseline is claimed.
    Abivax now has funding into Q4 2029 and a planned obefazimod NDA, but nearly $8.6B of diluted value above capital leaves little room for execution mistakes.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — base-case value ~$110.00 vs ~$103.45 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q2 net loss €117.433M; H1 operating outflow €102.509M
    - June liquidity €402.4M; July net proceeds €767.1M
    - Management runway into Q4 2029
    - Post-offer ordinary shares 87.177M; diluted 95.449M
    - Planned UC NDA by end-2026; Crohn’s topline mid-2027
    - HOLD 3/5; $110 base / $112.50 weighted / $45–$185 cases
    What to watch: Submit the UC NDA by year-end, maintain the Q4 2029 runway, control burn, deliver mid-2027 Crohn’s data and explicitly remediate the internal-control weaknesses.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/abvx-q2-2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • IPHA Stock: $75M Buys Time, Not Approval — Innate Pharma H1 2026
    Innate Pharma S.A. (IPHA) H1 2026 — September 17 intraday quote $1.855 at 11:50 a.m. EDT, down 7.71% from the $2.01 previous close. Not the final session close.
    Innate Pharma closed the Sobi partnership and an equity financing, extending the expected runway. The cash has claims, the shares have new owners, and clinical evidence still determines the value.
    THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$1.80 vs ~$1.855 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - H1 combined income €5.663M; licensing €3.115M
    - IFRS net loss €19.623M; operating outflow €21.044M
    - Sobi $75M upfront triggered; receipt expected
    - Equity raise €30M gross / €27.6M estimated net
    - Post-placement ordinary shares 111.719M; fully diluted 117.822M
    - HOLD 2/5; $1.80 base / $1.75 weighted / $0.40–$4.00 scenarios
    What to watch: Confirm the $75M receipt, inspect PACIFIC-9 and IPH4502 data, dose the first TELLOMAK-3 patient by Q1 2027, and track burn plus dilution.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/ipha-h1-2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • IMMR Stock: Profit Recovered. What Is Recurring? — Q1 FY2027
    Immersion Corporation (IMMR) Q1 FY2027 — FMP September 16 regular close $7.12; financial anchor July 31 and latest common count September 8. Post-release dated observation, not a live quote.
    Immersion returned to parent-attributable profit, but investment gains did much of the work. We separate recurring haptic economics, BNED minority ownership and claims against the parent cash balance.
    THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$7.50 vs ~$7.12 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Consolidated revenue $294.399M; haptic licensing $3.804M
    - Parent GAAP income $4.876M; reported diluted EPS $0.17 uses a $5.752M adjusted numerator
    - Equity and derivative gains $13.763M; haptic operating profit $0.306M
    - Parent cash $167.000M; all parent liabilities $54.375M including written options $22.674M
    - BNED ownership 32.3%; debt nonrecourse to parent; quoted stake valued separately
    - HOLD 2/5, Very High uncertainty; base $7.50, scenario weighted $7.35
    - Central method range $7–$8; scenario range $5–$10.50
    What to watch: Watch parent liquid bridge $147.323 M, written options $22.674 M and haptic EBIT $0.306 M. A conditional entry about $5.63 requires an intact thesis; above $9 prompts a valuation review.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/immr-q1-fy2027
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • UROY Stock: Profit Surge, New Owners, and a $40M Deadline — Q1 FY2027
    Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY) Q1 FY2027 — September 16 regular-session close: $4.39. Current economic shares include common and exchangeable claims.
    Uranium Royalty reported sharply higher earnings while monetizing its remaining physical stockpile. Sweetwater changed the share count, debt and cash priorities, and a $40M bridge must be repaid by January 31, 2027.
    THE CALL: SELL (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$2.25 vs ~$4.39 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q1 revenue $51.683M, +112.9% YoY
    - Parent net income $16.247M; diluted EPS $0.10
    - Common plus exchangeable shares 381.067M
    - Unrestricted cash $54.104M; restricted cash $49.547M
    - Bridge $40M due January 31, 2027; substantial doubt not alleviated
    - SELL 2/5; base $2.25; weighted $2.425; scenario range $1–$5
    What to watch: Committed funding before January 31, 2027, recurring royalty distributions and per-share value preserved through financing.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/uroy-q1-fy2027
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • ALMU Stock: The $30M CHIPS Deal Has an Equity Price — Q4 FY2026
    Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU) Q4 FY2026 — The saved preliminary after-hours trade was $11.10 at 19:58:09 EDT on September 16, down 17.35% from the $13.43 regular-session close.
    Aeluma has cash for development, but its conditional CHIPS proposal involves equity securities equal in value to the award. Commercial demand must still justify the higher spending and ownership claims.
    THE CALL: SELL (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$7.00 vs ~$11.10 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q4 revenue $0.582M, down 55.81% YoY
    - Q4 GAAP net loss $4.013M; EPS −$0.22
    - Q4 non-GAAP net loss $2.705M; adjusted EPS −$0.15
    - June 30 cash $56.006M; September 11 basic shares 19.265671M
    - FY2026 computed free cash flow −$3.912M
    - CHIPS proposal up to $30M; conditional award with equal-value equity
    - SELL 2/5; base $7; weighted $7.85; range $2–20
    What to watch: Quarterly revenue above $1.5M with recurring commercial contribution, disciplined operating cash use and verified funding/ownership terms.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/almu-q4-fy2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • LEN Stock: Land-Light, Cash-Heavy — Q3 FY2026
    Lennar Corporation (LEN) Q3 FY2026 — FMP dated after-hours trade $76.74 at September 16, 2026 23:59:38 UTC, −2.07% versus the $78.36 pre-release regular close. The regular-session −2.14% move preceded earnings.
    Lennar owns fewer lots and builds homes faster, but cash remains committed to inventory and land deposits. Q3 FY2026 shows why the land-light strategy still needs a cash-conversion recovery.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$75.00 vs ~$76.74 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q3 revenue $8.046B, down 8.7% year over year
    - GAAP EPS $1.19; company adjusted EPS $1.23
    - Homebuilding cash $1.150B, down $2.291B since fiscal year-end
    - Owned inventory increased $1.614B; deposits increased $943.6M since FY2025 end
    - FY2026 delivery target 80,000–81,000 versus 82,000–83,000 previously
    - HOLD, 3/5 conviction, $75 base and weighted value, High uncertainty
    - Central valuation band $65–80; stress scenarios $50–105
    What to watch: Watch Q4 deliveries 22,000–23,000 and gross margin 15.5%–16.0%; analyst green checkpoints are homebuilding cash above $2.0B and net debt below $2.5B. A $60 potential entry requires the underlying thesis to remain intact.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/len-q3-fy2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • LAES Stock: The Cash Cushion Shrinks Per Share — H1 2026
    SEALSQ Corp (LAES) H1 2026 — The September 15 intraday quote was $2.26; this is a dated snapshot, not a closing reaction.
    SEALSQ more than doubled first-half revenue, but operating losses and free-cash burn widened. The cash cushion also looks different when F-share economic rights and the complete share count are included.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1.65 vs ~$2.26 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - H1 revenue $11.151M, up 131.1% YoY
    - Gross profit $5.408M; gross margin 48.5%
    - Operating loss $32.162M; consolidated net loss $27.789M
    - OCF −$23.731M; FCF −$25.249M
    - Net liquid assets $481.033M before burn/commitments
    - Model economic shares 231.140922M; net liquid assets/share $2.08
    - Mean fair value $1.65; separate probability-weighted value $1.805
    What to watch: Commercial post-quantum revenue by year-end, H2 operating cash use at or below $20M, related-party receivables below $14M, and disciplined economic share growth.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/laes-h1-2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • FPS Stock: Record Orders, but Who Funds the Cash Ramp? — Q4 FY2026
    Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS) Q4 FY2026 — Verified Sep15 07:25:17 CDT early trade $30.6661, +7.07% versus Sep14 close $28.64; regular session and 10:00 CDT results call were pending at the source cutoff.
    Forgent has record orders and real operating growth. Customer advances fund much of the cash ramp, while the Up-C ownership and tax bridge determine how much value belongs to each economic share.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$29.00 vs ~$30.67 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - Q4 revenue $461.7M, +94.3% YoY
    - Q4 GAAP EPS $0.21; adjusted EPS $0.25
    - Q4 operating cash $73.901M; customer-advance inflow $130.345M
    - FY2026 computed FCF −$6.824M after all equipment purchases
    - FY2027 company revenue guide $2.4–2.6B
    - Model economic diluted interests304.755889M; net face debt$501.023M
    - Base fair value$29.00; probability-weighted scenario value$29.38
    What to watch: Track FY2027 revenue guide $2.4–2.6B, adjusted margins above22%, positive operating cash as advances grow slower than sales, and disciplined capex; recheck economic ownership.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fps-q4-fy2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min
  • BNTC Stock: $180 Million Cash, But What Does Each Share Own? — FY2026
    Benitec Biopharma Inc. (BNTC) FY2026 — Reference quote $12.08 at September 14 close; no clean post-release reaction quote captured.
    Benitec has $180 million cash, but prefunded warrants change what each share owns. Equity compensation and uncertain clinical economics drive the valuation.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — September 2027 twelve-month target ~$6.62 vs ~$12.08 at the September 14, 2026 release-boundary close.
    KEY METRICS:
    - FY2026 net loss $45.546M; operating expense $51.192M
    - Cash equivalents $179.972M at June 30
    - SBC $26.410M; OCF cash use $16.518M
    - Economic shares 49.487M including prefunded warrants; computed cash/share $3.64
    - 12-month target $6.62; probability-weighted scenario value $7.702; Very High uncertainty
    What to watch: Clear pivotal requirements, durable follow-up, a reconciled economic cap table and no renewed material compensation-accounting corrections.
    Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/bntc-fy2026
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    14 min

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