Winmark Corporation (WINA) Q2 2026 — Winmark (WINA) — the franchisor behind resale chains Plato's Closet, Once Upon a Child, Play It Again Sports and Style Encore — reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue up ~7.6% to $22.0M at a ~62% operating margin, with EPS ~$2.81 (roughly flat YoY and a touch light of a thin estimate). The stock rose anyway. It's an asset-light, counter-cyclical royalty machine that returns essentially all its cash (book equity is negative by design). At ~$398 (~25% off its $527 high, ~35x TTM EPS), our DCF work lands below the price.

How does a company earn a 62% operating margin selling other people's used clothes? Winmark isn't the store — it's the franchisor, collecting a royalty on everything its resale franchisees sell. Almost no capital, almost no inventory, and demand that actually rises in a downturn (more people buy and sell secondhand). It's one of the highest-quality little compounders around, and it has returned so much cash via buybacks and special dividends that its book equity is negative by design. Q2 revenue grew ~7.6% to $22M; EPS ~$2.81 was flat YoY and light of a thin estimate, but the market shrugged and the stock rose. The catch is price: at ~$398 (~35x earnings, 25% off its $527 high), every cut of our discounted-cash-flow model lands below the price — base case ~$273, quality-adjusted ~$365. Our call: HOLD, 3/5. A wonderful business we'd love to own cheaper. Not financial advice.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A WONDERFUL BUSINESS AT A DEMANDING PRICE) — base-case value ~$365 vs ~$398 today.

What to watch: a pullback toward the 52-week low near $340 (where price meets the cash flows), EPS growth reaccelerating into the high single digits, and continued royalty/franchise growth with the relentless buyback shrinking the float

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Frequency Electronics (FEIM) Q4 FY2026 — Frequency Electronics (FEIM) — a niche maker of atomic clocks and precision timing for satellites, missiles and secure military comms — reported an ugly fiscal Q4: gross margin collapsed to ~1% (vs a normal ~30%) and EPS came in at -$0.50 versus a +$0.27 estimate, a big miss, on a $3.8M Elcom inventory write-down and pre-revenue investment. Strip the one-offs and adjusted gross margin was ~36%. Backlog hit a record $111M, and management reaffirmed a $150M FY2029 revenue target. After a run from ~$20 to $80, the stock trades near $51 — above Wall Street's ~$44 target.

How does a company post a 1% gross margin and a record order book in the same quarter? Frequency Electronics makes the ultra-precise atomic clocks and oscillators that keep satellites, missiles and military radios in sync — a tiny, hard-to-replace niche. Its GAAP Q4 looked like a disaster (EPS -$0.50 vs +$0.27 expected, gross margin ~1%), but that was mostly a one-time $3.8M inventory write-down plus pre-revenue investment; adjusted gross margin was ~36%. Backlog is at a record $111M and management targets $150M revenue at 50% gross margins by FY2029. The catch: after quadrupling to $80 and settling near $51, the stock trades at ~8x sales — above even Wall Street's ~$44 target — with cash down to $1.6M. Our call: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ~$44, modestly below the price. A wonderful little niche that already believes its own best-case future. Not financial advice.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL STORY, BUT THE PRICE ALREADY BELIEVES IT) — base-case value ~$44 vs ~$51.51 today.

What to watch: gross margin recovering back toward 30%+ over one or two clean quarters (proving the Q4 charge was one-time), the record $111M backlog converting to revenue without fresh write-downs, and a pullback toward or below the ~$44 Street target

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Q3 FY2026 — BitMine Immersion (BMNR), the largest corporate holder of Ethereum on earth (~5% of all ETH), trades at roughly a 13% discount to the value of its own coins — you buy a dollar of Ethereum for about 87 cents. But it carries an ~$8.2B unrealized loss from buying ETH near the top, and funds itself with 12%-cost preferred to earn a 2.7% staking yield. The stock is down ~88% from its 2025 hype peak of $135, last around $15.79.

How can a company's Ethereum be worth more than the entire company? BitMine holds about $10.5B of ETH (plus ~$0.8B cash) — roughly $11.3B of net assets — against a ~$9.5B market cap. That's a real ~13% discount to NAV, and per-share ETH is still rising (+18% YoY, 9.57 ETH per 1,000 shares), so the dilution has been accretive. But there's an eight-billion-dollar catch: management paid ~$19B for a stake now worth ~$11B, and pays a 12% cost of capital to earn under 3%. This isn't a business — it's leveraged Ethereum with a management fee. Our call: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ≈ NAV, near $18. Own the discount only if you actually want to own the Ethereum. Not financial advice.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A DOLLAR OF ETH FOR 87 CENTS, BUT IT IS JUST ETH) — base-case value ~$18 vs ~$15.79 today.

What to watch: the mNAV discount widening below 0.8x (a wider margin of safety), a shift from issuing stock to buying it back below NAV (the accretive move), and above all the direction of Ethereum itself

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) Q2 2026 — Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), the Mexican airport operator, grew Q2 2026 EBITDA 8.4% to a record 69% margin and net income 9% — even as passenger traffic fell 5.6% — but the stock was labeled an earnings 'miss' because per-share profit fell ~7% after it issued ~90M shares (+17.7%) to buy full control of the CBX border bridge. The ADR was roughly flat at ~$229, about 24% off its high.

How does an airport get more profitable while fewer people fly through it? GAP is a toll road for the sky: 12 Mexican airports (plus 2 in Jamaica) under 50-year concessions with inflation-linked regulated tariffs — so it raised charges (+7% at two airports on July 1) and grew retail revenue 24%, and pricing power overwhelmed a 5.6% traffic dip. The 'miss' was optical: total profit rose 9%, but the CBX acquisition diluted per-share earnings. And the traffic softness is one-offs (Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, a strong peso, World Cup distortions) — Guadalajara actually grew 4.6%. It's a wonderful, bond-like asset (69% margins, 18.7% ROIC, 0.25 beta, ~5% yield) — but the priciest of the three Mexican airport groups. Our call: a constructive HOLD, fair value ~$250, and if you want the theme cheaper, ASUR trades at 9x EBITDA with a 7% yield.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A TOLL ROAD WITH A RUNWAY, AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$250 vs ~$229 today.

What to watch: passenger traffic inflecting positive as the hurricane and World Cup distortions clear, the tariff ramp toward the maximum allowed rate, and the valuation gap to cheaper peer ASUR

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

AngioDynamics (ANGO) Q4 FY2026 — AngioDynamics beat on its fiscal Q4 (revenue $86.6M, +8%; adjusted loss of $0.07, 4 cents better than feared), grew full-year Med Tech 18%, and guided FY27 revenue above consensus. The stock jumped ~11% to a 52-week high, led by NanoKnife (+64.5%) as Medicare coverage for its prostate-ablation therapy went live July 5.

AngioDynamics quietly reinvented itself: it sold its low-margin legacy lines and rebuilt around two growth platforms, and the star is NanoKnife — which destroys prostate tumors with electricity (a focal therapy that spares patients the incontinence/impotence risks of surgery or radiation). The catalyst just completed: FDA clearance (2024), billing codes live (Jan 1), and Medicare coverage effective July 5. NanoKnife grew 64.5% with capital placements up 132% — every machine placed is a razor that sells disposable probes for years. At ~1.7x sales, debt-free, the valuation is reasonable and the catalyst is only days old. But it just popped 11% to a 52-week high and more than half the company barely grows. A SPECULATIVE BUY — real catalyst, mind the entry. Fair value ~$18.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, REAL CATALYST, MIND THE ENTRY) — base-case value ~$18 vs ~$14.43 today.

What to watch: disposable-probe (utilization) revenue accelerating in the quarters after the 132% jump in machine placements and the July 5 Medicare coverage, the Med Device drag on blended growth, and the path to GAAP profitability

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Phoenix Education Partners (PXED) Q3 FY2026 — Phoenix Education Partners (parent of the University of Phoenix) reported flat Q3 revenue of $271.8M, beat on adjusted EPS at $1.43, but cut its full-year revenue guide and saw margins compress — blaming AI-powered search for disrupting its student-recruitment funnel. The stock fell ~9.5% to ~$31.

The single number that governs this stock: 88.6% of Phoenix's revenue comes from federal financial aid, and a law (the 90/10 Rule) caps that at 90%. It earns 28% margins sitting 1.4 points from a cliff its own filing says could make the business 'unsustainable.' That's why a debt-free cash machine with $269M of cash trades at ~7x forward earnings. Two twists: the reason it fell (AI-powered search breaking the enrollment funnel — one of the first companies where you can point to a P&L line moving because of how people use AI), and the tailwind nobody's pricing (the June 29 repeal of Gainful Employment, the rule built to punish for-profit colleges). Cheap, with an ignored tailwind and real tail risk — a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$40.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, CHEAP, WITH AN IGNORED TAILWIND) — base-case value ~$40 vs ~$31.29 today.

What to watch: the enrollment funnel stabilizing as marketing adapts to AI search, the 90/10 percentage holding well below 90%, and whether Apollo floods the tiny float with a secondary

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Ericsson (ERIC) Q2 2026 — Ericsson's Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin rose to 48.4% (Networks 50.4%, a multi-year high) and EPS met consensus, but the ADR fell ~13% — its worst earnings reaction in three years — after management warned that AI-driven memory and component cost inflation will squeeze Q3 Networks margins to 48-50%, revenue came in light, and North America declined.

Ericsson beat on profit and got hammered. The reason is a genuine irony: the same AI boom that underpins its long-term bull case (more data means more network spending) is bidding up the memory and chips inside its own radios, right now. So the demand is a later story and the cost is a now story, and the market repriced for the gap. But underneath: a real margin turnaround (48.4% adjusted, Networks at 50.4%), $6.2B of net cash (a fifth of the market cap), a ~3% dividend, and a ~13x P/E. After a 13% drop, that looks oversold. Our call: a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$11.50 — and we're MORE constructive than the bearish Street, whose targets sit right around the price.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A CHEAP TURNAROUND THE MARKET OVERSOLD) — base-case value ~$11.50 vs ~$10.10 today.

What to watch: Q3 gross margin holding at the high end of the 48-50% guide (proving the AI-cost hit is contained), North America stabilizing, and the memory-cost inflation staying a couple of quarters rather than a multi-year headwind

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Fastenal Company (FAST) Q2 2026 — Fastenal grew Q2 2026 revenue 14.7% to $2.39B with daily sales up 14.7%, but EPS of $0.33 only met consensus, gross margin fell 75bps to 44.6% on tariff costs, and it trimmed two full-year targets. The stock slipped ~2.2% to ~$44.75.

Nobody disputes Fastenal is a wonderful business — 31% return on capital, a genuine vending-machine and Onsite moat, a fortress balance sheet, and a growing dividend. The question is the price. At ~34x forward earnings for what's really a ~10% compounder (about 290bps of the 14.7% growth was tariff pricing, not volume), even a generous owner-earnings DCF lands around $42 — below the $44.75 price and below the Street's $47.67 average. Margins are squeezed by tariffs with no recovery guided for H2, and the CEO handed off to a successor two days after the print. A wonderful business at a full price.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A WONDERFUL BUSINESS AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$42 vs ~$44.75 today.

What to watch: price-cost (margin) turning positive as tariffs settle, the digital-footprint mix re-accelerating past the trimmed target, and the CEO transition from Florness to Watts

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS) Q4 FY2026 — Kestra Medical grew fiscal Q4 revenue 66% to $28.6M (FY26 +59% to $95.1M) and expanded gross margin to 54.8% — its 10th straight quarter of gains — but its adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $27M, EPS missed, and it guided FY27 revenue to $137M (+44%, a deceleration). The stock fell ~8.5% to ~$22.

Kestra makes the ASSURE wearable defibrillator and is the challenger to ZOLL's LifeVest in a two-player market — growing 59% while the market grows low-to-mid teens, so it's taking real share. The equity story is a gorgeous gross-margin ramp (40.5% to 54.8% in a year, targeting 70%+). So why did it fall 8%? The loss WIDENED (adj. EBITDA -$20M to -$27M), the guide decelerated to +44%, and management gave no path-to-breakeven date. At ~8x forward sales after the drop, it's a reasonable price for the growth — a SPECULATIVE BUY, with the risk that losses take longer to inflect than hoped.

THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, GREAT TOP LINE, UNPROVEN BOTTOM LINE) — base-case value ~$27 vs ~$22 today.

What to watch: the first sign losses are inflecting (a narrowing EBITDA loss or a breakeven date), the collections/in-network conversion rate, and the share count

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) Q4 FY2026 — Aehr Test Systems beat on its fiscal Q4 (revenue $18.8M, +34%; non-GAAP EPS $0.11 vs a small expected loss), posted record bookings of $60.7M and a $100.6M effective backlog, and guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $130-150M — 160-200% growth. The stock rose ~6% to $72.

Going into the print, Aehr was the classic story stock: 52x sales, falling revenue, and no FY27 number. The print knocked down all three pillars of the bear case at once — it guided $130-150M (160-200% growth), Q4 gross margin recovered to 43%, and it fired the dilution gun (raised $97M, now $116M cash and no debt). So it's no longer a business-quality call, it's a valuation call: ~16x forward sales but ~84x forward earnings after a 5x run. Notably, the Street's $62 targets are stale (set pre-guide) and almost certainly headed up. A constructive HOLD.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE STORY GOT REAL; SO DID THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$72 vs ~$72 today.

What to watch: the gross margin holding as Sonoma scales, fiscal 2028 bookings (the encore customer), and the analyst upgrades likely coming after this guide

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.