Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) Q1 FY2027 — Fiscal Q1 2027 (the June quarter) net sales $1,484.7M, +38.0% YoY and +13.2% sequential, above the high end of guidance. Non-GAAP EPS $0.76 vs a $0.67-$0.71 guide; GAAP EPS $0.37. September guided UP 7-9% sequentially. AMC print, so the $74.36 close is PRE-print.

Microchip beat the high end of its own guidance and raised September hard - and we still rate it HOLD. The number nobody put on screen: FY2027 consensus of $3.18 is at least 12% too low, because H1 is already locked at $1.69. The bar was not cut. It is stale.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN EXCELLENT QUARTER, AND A PRICE THAT ALREADY REFLECTS IT) — base-case value ~$64.0 vs ~$74.36 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$64 vs the $74.36 pre-print close (-14%). Bull $78, base $64, bear $46 - even our BULL case is only ~5% above the price. Street: 46 analysts, 32 Buy / 14 Hold / 0 Sell, $114.25 avg target (low $88, high $135) = +54%. We are far more CAUTIOUS. Freshest revisions were CUTS: Wells Fargo $88, TD Cowen $90.

- THE PRINT (fiscal Q1 2027 = quarter ended June 30, 2026): net sales $1,484.7M vs $1,075.5M, +38.0% YoY, +13.2% sequential, above a $1,456M guide midpoint. Non-GAAP: GM 63.8% vs 54.3%, operating income $521.1M (35.1%) vs $222.3M (20.7%), EPS $0.76 vs a $0.67-$0.71 guide and ~$0.70 Street bar. GAAP: GM 63.2%, operating income $336.8M, EPS $0.37 vs a $0.28-$0.29 guide.

- THE BAR WAS NOT CUT - IT IS STALE: the Street sat at ~$0.70 going in, the HIGH end of guidance, so this is a clean beat. But FY2027 consensus is $6.21B revenue and $3.18 EPS. H1 is locked: $1,484.7M + $1,603.5M guided = $3,088M; $0.76 + $0.93 = $1.69. To reach $3.18 the back half must average $0.745 - below the June quarter and 20% below the September guide. Hold September flat twice and FY27 is $3.55, 11.6% above consensus.

- 88.5% INCREMENTAL GROSS MARGIN: net sales +$409.2M YoY, gross profit +$362.2M ($576.7M to $938.9M), opex +$57.5M (+10.6%), operating income +$304.7M ($32.1M to $336.8M). A factory story - higher utilisation, lower underutilisation charges. It cuts both ways: FY2023 revenue $8,438.7M at a 36.9% operating margin fell to FY2025 $4,401.6M at 6.7%. Revenue is still 35.1% below the June-2023 peak quarter of $2,288.6M.

- TWO SETS OF EARNINGS: non-GAAP EPS $0.76 is 2.05x GAAP $0.37. The bridge adds back $27.8M preferred dividends, $75.0M stock comp, $90.0M acquired-intangible amortisation, $18.9M special charges and a $24.5M tax adjustment; non-GAAP tax rate 7.5% vs 20.7% GAAP. We accept the $90.0M amortisation (sunk Atmel/Microsemi) but charge stock comp in full and tax at 15%: owner earnings ~$2.87/sh vs ~$3.72 non-GAAP, ~30% smaller.

- CASH, THE FROZEN DIVIDEND, GUIDANCE, VALUATION: operating cash flow $511.5M (34.5% of sales), capex just $13.9M, FCF $497.6M (33.5%) vs $257.7M. Net debt $5,089M, 3.0x EBITDA, down ~$170M. Dividend 45.5c for September - the EIGHTH straight quarter unchanged since Nov 2024; no buyback; FY27 capex only ~$100M. Q2 guide $1.589-$1.618B (+7-9% seq), non-GAAP GM 66-67%, EPS $0.91-$0.95. Owner-earnings DCF (WACC 9.0%, 15% cash tax) = ~$64; EV $47,794M = 7.5x FY27 revenue.

What to watch: UP: December guided up again with gross margin 67%+, or a dividend increase after eight frozen quarters. BEAR: book-to-bill below 1, inventory days rising, or capex stepping up from the ~$100M plan. Next read: the September quarter, early November.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Q2 2026 — Q2 adjusted EPS from continuing operations $2.40 vs a $1.83 bar - a 31.1% beat. GAAP reported EPS was HIGHER at $2.75, because items affecting comparability were a net GAIN of $368M after tax. Revenue $8,065M, up 53.4% and 14.0% above the $7,074M estimate. Free cash flow before working capital $3,021M, the highest since Q3 2022. Production 1,433 Mboe/d, above the high end of guidance. Quarterly dividend raised 8% to $0.28. The 8-K was accepted at 4:16 p.m. ET on Aug 5, so $53.81 is the pre-print close and $56.04 (+4.14%) is the reaction.

Occidental beat by 31% and the stock rose 4.1%. This episode is about what that beat actually was. First, the basis: $2.40 is ADJUSTED from continuing operations and $1.83 is a non-GAAP estimate, so the pair is honest - and GAAP was HIGHER at $2.75 because items affecting comparability were a net $368M GAIN, not an impairment. Second, the beat in barrels: $0.57 x 1,012.2M diluted shares is $577M after tax, or $749M pre-tax at the 23% rate, spread over 64.9 million barrels of oil sold - $11.54 a barrel. WTI averaged $92.79; the Street's deck was about $81. Third, the sequential move is 99% price: realised oil went $69.91 to $96.78 (+$26.87), worth $1.33 a share, against an actual move of $1.34, while production went 1,426 to 1,433 Mboe/d. Fourth, the line nobody wrote down - domestic realised natural gas was MINUS $1.48/Mcf, minus 51% of a $2.89 NYMEX, which on 1,867 MMcf/d is MINUS $251M of revenue and a $416M quarter-on-quarter swing. Fifth, the preferred is now the expensive money: interest and debt expense was $108M in the quarter while the $8,287M Berkshire preferred took $170M, and that balance has not moved in six quarters. Sixth, they sold OxyChem to Berkshire for $9,472M net and a $3.1B gain but RETAINED the legacy environmental liabilities - $1,853M booked across 149 sites, up to $1.9B more reasonably possible, plus a guaranty to Berkshire. Seventh, record free cash flow and zero shares bought under the announced program, while $22-strike warrants took basic shares from 941.3M to 997.1M.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A SUPERB QUARTER, AND THE PRICE ALREADY ASSUMES $75 OIL FOREVER) — base-case value ~$55.0 vs ~$56.04 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$55 vs the $56.04 close (-2%). Street: 52 analysts, Buy, $65.15 avg target. We DIFFER and are more cautious.

- Adj EPS $2.40 vs $1.83 (+31.1%); GAAP $2.75. Rev $8,065M +53.4%. FCF before WC $3,021M. Production 1,433 Mboe/d, above guidance.

- The beat is $11.54/bbl of unmodelled oil. WTI $92.79. Domestic gas realised MINUS $1.48/Mcf. Preferred $170M/qtr vs $108M of interest.

What to watch: UP: a redemption of any part of the Berkshire preferred (worth roughly $3 a share we are not carrying); an actual buyback under the $1,223M already authorised; Permian gas realisations turning positive as new takeaway arrives; or principal debt reaching the $10.0B milestone early. BEAR: WTI back under $70, a fourth straight quarter of falling international volumes, capital spending rising to defend flat production, or another quarter of negative Waha gas.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) Q2 2026 — Q2 revenue $1,443.2M, -4.6% YoY, vs a $1,512.0M consensus - a 4.5% MISS. Adjusted EPS $0.09 vs a $0.02 non-GAAP bar (a BEAT); GAAP EPS $(0.14). Adjusted EBITDA $114.6M, -61.9%. Sports Consumer Volume $13.14B, +14.5%. FY26 guidance REITERATED at $6.5-6.9B revenue and $700-900M adjusted EBITDA. AMC print, so the $22.17 close is PRE-print; the stock traded about 4% lower after hours.

DraftKings missed on revenue and the tape hated it - but the customers never left. Sports Consumer Volume hit a record $13.14B, up 14.5%, and monthly unique payers rose 9% to 3.6 million. The entire miss is 191 basis points of hold: the sports net revenue margin fell from 8.70% to 6.79%. Apply last year's hold to this year's volume and revenue would have been $1,694M - up 12% and a 12% BEAT. Full arithmetic below.

THE CALL: BUY (3/5, THE MISS IS 191 BASIS POINTS OF HOLD, AND THE PRICE ALREADY ASSUMES IT IS PERMANENT) — base-case value ~$32.0 vs ~$22.17 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: BUY 3/5, base case fair value ~$32 vs the $22.17 pre-print close (+43%). Bull $51, base $32, bear $12 - a genuinely two-sided stock and we say so. Street: 48 analysts, 35 Buy / 9 Hold / 4 Sell, consensus Buy, $35.40 average target (low $26.40, high $49, +60%). We ALIGN on direction and stay more CAUTIOUS on the number.

- THE PRINT: revenue $1,443,235K vs $1,512,507K (-4.6%) against a $1,512.0M bar = a 4.5% MISS. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.09 vs $0.38; the $0.02 Street bar is NON-GAAP, so $0.09 vs $0.02 is the comparable pair and it is a BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS $(0.14) vs $0.30. Adjusted EBITDA $114.6M vs $300.6M, -61.9%. Loss from operations $(68.2)M vs $150.6M.

- THE $251M HOLD-RATE GAP: Sports Consumer Volume $13,140.4M vs $11,474.8M (+14.5%, a record). Sports revenue $891.9M vs $997.9M (-10.6%). Sports net revenue margin 6.79% vs 8.70% = -191bp. At last year's margin that volume produces $1,143M of sports revenue, so 191bp cost $251M. Add it back: revenue $1,694M, +12.0% YoY and a 12.0% BEAT.

- THE EBITDA BRIDGE (ties exactly): adjusted EBITDA -$186.0M. Revenue -$69.3M, cost of revenue +$37.2M, sales and marketing +$89.3M (+38.3%, now 22.3% of revenue vs 15.4%), product and technology +$19.2M, G&A +$3.7M = a -$218.8M operating swing; add back D&A +$15.0M, SBC -$2.1M and a NEW advocacy add-back +$19.9M = -$186.0M.

- THE NEW ADD-BACK: 'advocacy and other related legal expenses' was $19.9M in Q2 and $46.2M in H1 2026 against ZERO in both 2025 periods - lobbying to legalise iGaming and back a sportsbook ballot measure. Strip it out and adjusted EBITDA is $94.7M, not $114.6M: 17% of the quarter's adjusted profit is an add-back that did not exist a year ago.

- THE GUIDE: FY26 revenue $6.5-6.9B and adjusted EBITDA $700-900M, REITERATED. H1 revenue $3,089.3M, so H2 must be $3,411-3,811M vs $3,133.2M last year (+8.9% to +21.6%). H1 adjusted EBITDA $282.5M (-30% YoY), so H2 must be $418-618M vs $216.7M - 1.9x to 2.8x, a 63% incremental margin at the midpoint. CFO named a ~$1B 'core' EBITDA: a $100-300M Predictions drag.

- CASH + VALUATION: H1 CFO $63.0M includes a -$94.7M player-float swing; ex float, CFO $157.7M less $88.7M capex = +$69.0M clean FCF (-$25.7M as reported) while buying back $154.2M of stock. Liabilities to users $840.3M vs $395.0M reserved = a $445M unreserved float. Net debt $851M, EV $11.85B = 1.77x guided revenue, 14.8x guided EBITDA (15.4x with the float).

What to watch: UP: sports net revenue margin back above 7.5% in Q3, DraftKings disclosing Predictions volume and revenue separately, or NFL-season handle growth off the nationwide Super App. BEAR: marketing above 25% of revenue, an FY26 adjusted EBITDA guide cut below $700M, a blended take rate under 6%, or another state raising its gaming tax. Next read: Q3 2026, early November.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Q2 2026 — Net sales $2,537.5M, +20.2%, vs a ~$2.43B bar. Adjusted EPS $0.60 vs $0.58 (GAAP $0.59) - a beat on BOTH bases. Adjusted operating margin 29.5% vs 31.3%. Case volume +22.3%, FASTER than revenue. AMC print, so the $94.16 close is PRE-print. A 2-for-1 split lands after the close Aug 10.

Monster beat, and we still rate it HOLD. The fact nobody put on screen: Monster shipped 304.9 million cases, up 22.3%, FASTER than the 20.2% of revenue. Strip the currency and the average case sold for $8.04 against $8.29 - every case went out 3.0% CHEAPER.

THE CALL: HOLD (4/5, A WONDERFUL BUSINESS, AND THE PRICE ALREADY KNOWS IT) — base-case value ~$86.0 vs ~$94.16 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 4/5, base case fair value ~$86 vs the $94.16 pre-print close (-9%). Bull $111, base $86, bear $42. Street: 44 analysts, 23 Buy / 18 Hold / 3 Sell, consensus Buy, $97.27 average target (low $88, high $105) - only +3% of upside. Our $86 is BELOW the Street's LOWEST published target, so on the tracked panel we are the single most cautious view. We are more CAUTIOUS and we DIFFER on the word.

- THE PRINT: net sales $2,537,473K vs $2,111,593K (+20.2%); FX added $48,539K so FX-neutral was +17.9%. Gross profit $1,419,634K, GM 55.9% vs 55.7%. Operating income $740,442K (+17.2%); ADJUSTED operating income $748,086K (+13.3%). Net income $584,540K (+19.6%). Diluted EPS $0.59 vs $0.50; adjusted $0.60 vs a $0.58 bar. Tax rate 23.9%. Diluted WASO 988,479K. H1 net sales $4,890,764K (+23.3%), H1 EPS $1.17.

- VOLUME DID EVERYTHING, PRICE WENT BACKWARDS: energy drink case sales 304,944K vs 249,336K 192oz case equivalents = +22.3%, FASTER than the 20.2% headline. Average net sales per case $8.20 vs $8.29 (-1.1%). Strip FX and the energy portfolio grew 18.6% on 22.3% more volume, so the FX-neutral price per case was $8.04 vs $8.29 - DOWN 3.0%. Monster cut realised price and bought volume while the rest of staples priced.

- THE GEOGRAPHY IS THE STORY: international net sales $1,163.1M vs $864.2M (+34.6%, FX-neutral +29.0%), now 46% of the company vs 41% - that is 70% of the entire $425.9M revenue increase. Implied US net sales +10.2%. Segments: Monster Energy Drinks $2,356.1M (+21.6%), Strategic Brands $143.7M (+10.6%), Alcohol $32.2M (-15.2%), Other $5.4M (-15.3%).

- THE GROWTH IS BEING BOUGHT: adjusted operating expenses +31.1% against net sales +20.2%. Distribution $118.8M = 4.7% of sales vs $82.0M = 3.9% (+45.1%). Selling $269.2M = 10.6% vs $196.9M = 9.3% (+36.7%). G&A $291.2M = 11.5% vs 12.6% (110bps of real leverage). SBC $35.7M vs $33.2M. Gross profit rose $243.2M, opex rose $134.4M - 55 cents of every extra gross profit dollar went straight back out.

- THE SCANNER EXHIBIT (EX-99.2, NielsenIQ, US convenience & gas, 4wks to 7/25/26): category +5.0%. MONSTER brand 29.4 share, UP 1.1 points, sales +9.1%. RED BULL 35.1 share, DOWN 1.5 points, +0.9%. CELSIUS 7.1 share, DOWN 0.9 points, sales -7.2%. ALANI NU 5.1 share, UP 2.0 points, +74.2%. But Monster Energy Company's TOTAL share fell 0.1 to 35.4: Reign -28.0%, Bang -19.1%, Java/coffee-energy -2.4%.

- CASH, BUYBACK, VALUATION: cash + investments $4,200.6M (up $948M in six months) with ZERO debt. ZERO shares repurchased in Q2; ~$900.0M of authorisation unused - from a team that spent $3,772M on buybacks in 2024. At $94.16: market cap $92,229M on 979,490K shares, EV $88,028M = 9.6x TTM revenue $9,219M and 41.4x TTM owner cash flow $2,128M, a 2.4% yield. Owner-earnings DCF (7.9% discount, 3.3% terminal, 24% FCF margin) = ~$86/share.

What to watch: UP: adjusted opex growing SLOWER than net sales for two straight quarters, price per case turning positive FX-neutral, or the buyback restarting. BEAR: margin down another 100bps, or Alani Nu past a 7 share. Next read: Q3 2026, November.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Q2 2026 — Q2 revenue $752.8M, +37.7% YoY, vs a $662.6M consensus - a 13.6% beat. GAAP EPS $(0.47) vs a $(0.51) bar. Gross margin 64.5%; operating margin -10.1% vs -20.2%. FY26 revenue guidance RAISED $100M at the midpoint to $2.85B-$2.91B. AMC print, so the $265.38 close is PRE-print; the stock traded near $308 after hours, about +16.3%.

Natera posted an excellent quarter and we still rate it SELL - those are two different questions. The fact nobody put on screen: Natera has beaten the revenue consensus by DOUBLE DIGITS for eight straight quarters, median 13.3%, so tonight's 13.6% beat WAS the average - and the stock rose 16% on it. Full arithmetic below.

THE CALL: SELL (4/5, AN EXCEPTIONAL BUSINESS AT A PRICE THAT NEEDS A DECADE OF PERFECTION) — base-case value ~$132.0 vs ~$308.0 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 4/5, base case fair value ~$132 vs a ~$308 after-hours print (-57%) and the $265.38 close (-50%). Bull $192, base $132, bear $61 - even our BULL case is 38% below tonight's price. Street: 27 analysts, 24 Buy / 3 Hold / 0 Sell, consensus Buy, $274.45 avg target (median $275, low $220, high $330) - already 11% BELOW the after-hours price. We are far more CAUTIOUS and DIFFER on the word.

- THE PRINT: revenue $752,750K vs $546,600K (+37.7%) vs a $662.6M consensus = a 13.6% beat. Gross profit $485.2M, GM 64.5% vs 63.4%. R&D $228.1M (+55.8%); SG&A $327.2M (+5.4%); amortisation $5.7M. Loss from operations $(75.8)M vs $(110.4)M, -10.1% vs -20.2%. Net loss $(67.0)M = $(0.47)/sh vs $(0.74); bar $(0.51). WASO 143.3M. H1 revenue $1,449.4M, H1 net loss $(152.1)M.

- THE BEAT IS THE BASE RATE: eight straight double-digit revenue beats (+21.7%, +9.3%, +12.5%, +14.8%, +15.3%, +10.2%, +12.9%, +13.6%), median 13.3%. Cause: revenue is booked on an ESTIMATE of insurer collections and trued up later - a $52.3M change in estimate this quarter vs $61.0M in Q1 2026 and $45.3M in Q2 2025. Ex-true-up revenue $700.5M vs $501.3M = +39.7%, FASTER than the headline. The beat is real, not an artifact.

- THE CUT BAR (3 checks): (1) H1 revenue $1,449.4M vs an implied H2 of $1,430.6M at the $2,880M FY midpoint - H2 is $18.8M SMALLER than H1. (2) That implied H2 is +13.8% YoY after +38.2% in H1. (3) The midpoint rose exactly $100M while Q2 alone beat by $90.1M. FY26 guide: revenue $2.85-2.91B, GM 64-66%, SG&A $1.125-1.225B, R&D $800-900M, cash flow positive.

- THE LOSS IS A CHOICE: gross profit +$138.6M YoY; R&D took $81.6M (59% of it, +55.8%, now 30.3% of revenue vs 26.8%); SG&A took $16.7M (+5.4% on 37.7% growth - SG&A fell from 56.8% to 43.5% of revenue, 13 points of leverage); amortisation $5.7M; leaving $34.6M = exactly the improvement in operating loss. Flat R&D = a $5.8M operating PROFIT instead of a $75.8M loss.

- VOLUMES + RISK: tests processed 1,043,900 (+22.4%); reported 985,500 (+21.2%); oncology 296,700 (+57.2%); clinical MRD units +34,000 sequentially, a record. Revenue per test $763.82 vs $672.40. Signatera CDx FDA-approved in MIBC (IMvigor011); Prospera MolDx expansion effective Aug 30 2026. Guardant Health holds a $292.5M jury verdict vs Natera, unaccrued in $836.0M of total liabilities.

- CASH + VALUATION: cash $1,091.5M less $80.3M credit and $120.5M contingent consideration = ~$891M net cash; cash rose only $3.6M in the quarter. FY2025 operating cash flow $215.3M against $354.4M of SBC - charge the stock and 2025 owner cash was NEGATIVE $139M. AR $296.5M to $422.0M, DSO ~41 to ~51 days. At ~$308, EV $43,342M = 15.0x FY26 revenue and 23.2x gross profit. Owner-earnings DCF (SBC charged in full, WACC 9.0%) = $19,855M = ~$132/share.

What to watch: UP: R&D flat for two consecutive quarters, or a GAAP operating profit before 2028. BEAR: a Medicare rate cut on Signatera or Prospera, a true-up that reverses, or DSO past 60 days. Next read: Q3 2026, early November.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Q2 2026 — Q2 revenue $715.1M, +3.0% YoY, vs a $752.6M consensus - and 4.7% BELOW the 'at least $750M' floor management guided in May. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.34 vs a $0.40 bar (-15%); GAAP diluted EPS $0.14 vs $0.18. Adjusted EBITDA $241.3M, a 33.7% margin against 39.0%. Q3 guidance: revenue 'at least $650M' vs $805M consensus - and vs $739.4M in Q3 2025, so -12.1% YoY, the first year-over-year revenue decline in the company's public history. The 8-K was accepted 4:09:47 p.m. ET, so the $17.67 close is the PRE-print price; the stock traded ~$13.38 after hours, about -24.3%.

The Trade Desk missed on every line and then guided to something it has never done. First, the basis, because this is where you get misled on this name: GAAP diluted EPS is $0.14 and non-GAAP EPS is $0.34, and the entire $110M gap is stock compensation ($109.6M, 15.3% of revenue) less a $16.4M tax adjustment. The Street bar is the non-GAAP one at $0.40, so $0.34 is a 15% MISS - not a beat against the $0.18 GAAP estimate some feeds printed. Second, the floor: in May management guided Q2 revenue to 'at least $750 million' and printed $715.1M, 4.7% below the bottom of their own range. Third, the guide: Q3 revenue of 'at least $650 million' - against the company's own $739.4M in Q3 2025 that is -12.1% YoY, the first revenue decline TTD has ever guided to. Fourth, a target that quietly vanished: May's commitment to a FY26 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 'at least 40%' would now require roughly a 69% Q4 margin (1H was 31.9%, Q3 is guided to 24.6%) - arithmetically impossible, and the release does not mention it. Fifth, where the margin went: platform operations grew $33.4M (+22.1%) while ALL of revenue grew $21.0M. Sixth, below the line: the tax rate jumped to 43.1% from 32.3% as RSUs granted at far higher prices vest into a $17 stock, so a falling share price mechanically raises the tax bill.

THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, THE PRICE HAS ALREADY DONE THE WORK, AND THE BUSINESS HAS NOT STOPPED FALLING) — base-case value ~$14.5 vs ~$13.38 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 2/5, fair value ~$14.50 vs a $13.38 after-hours print (+8%). Street: 47 analysts, Buy, $24.68 avg target. We are far more CAUTIOUS and DIFFER on the rating - their out-year model still carries 2027 revenue near $3.5B against a guided $2.6B run rate.

- Rev $715.1M +3.0% vs $752.6M cons - and 4.7% BELOW their own 'at least $750M' May guide. Non-GAAP EPS $0.34 vs $0.40 (GAAP $0.14). Adjusted EBITDA $241.3M, 33.7% vs 39.0%.

- Q3 GUIDE: revenue 'at least $650M' vs $805M cons and vs $739.4M in Q3 2025 = -12.1% YoY, the first revenue decline ever. Adjusted EBITDA ~$160M = a 24.6% margin.

- MARGIN: platform operations +$33.4M (+22.1%) exceeded ALL of revenue growth (+$21.0M); that line went 21.8% to 25.8% of revenue, ~3/4 of the 527bp margin decline.

- BELOW THE LINE: tax rate 43.1% vs 32.3% (non-deductible SBC shortfall); interest income -36% to $11.5M; buyback only $78M vs $109.6M of SBC, $269M left.

- BALANCE SHEET: $1,123M cash + $362M investments, ZERO debt = $1,485M net cash, $3.16/share (24% of the price). EV $4,803M = 1.6x TTM revenue.

- OWNER EARNINGS: 1H operating cash $545M, less $133M capex, less a $127M working-capital release, less $219M SBC = $66M. Annualised that is 36x EV.

What to watch: UP: Q3 revenue landing meaningfully above the $650M floor; platform operations growing slower than revenue for even one quarter; or the new CFO reinstating a full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin target and hitting it. BEAR: a Q4 guide below $700M; accounts receivable falling another 10% (gross platform spend still contracting); or the buyback going to zero to protect cash. Next clean read: Q3 results, early November 2026.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Q2 2026 — Q2 revenue $3,608M, +16.5% (+13% ex-FX), vs a $3,580M consensus - and $8M above the TOP of Airbnb's own May guide of $3.54-$3.60B. GAAP diluted EPS $1.37 vs a $1.25 bar. But 10-Q Note 10 discloses a $77M discrete tax benefit tied to published guidance on PRIOR-year taxes: that is $0.129 a share, so ex-item EPS is $1.24 - a one-cent MISS. Adjusted EBITDA $1,261M (35.0% margin). Nights and Seats Booked 148.3M, +10.3%, when May guidance said Q2 would DECELERATE. The 8-K was accepted 4:02 p.m. ET, so the $151.64 close is the PRE-print price; the stock traded ~$165.40 after hours, about +9.1%.

Airbnb beat on both lines and the stock added about 9% after hours. This episode is about how much of that was earned. First, the basis: Airbnb publishes no non-GAAP EPS, so the $1.37 and the $1.25 consensus are the same GAAP diluted measure - no adjustment trap. The trap is in the footnote. 10-Q Note 10 says income tax expense fell versus last year 'primarily due to a $77 million benefit recorded in the current period related to recently published guidance impacting prior year taxes.' On 597M diluted shares that is 12.9 cents; $1.37 less 12.9 cents is $1.24 against a $1.25 bar. Cross-check: add the $77M back and the provision is $158M on $897M of pre-tax income - a 17.6% rate, against 17.59% in Q2 2025. Identical. Second, the revenue beat was $8 million: May guidance was $3.54-$3.60B and the print was $3,608M, 0.2% above their own ceiling. Third, the real surprise is units - May guidance said nights growth would DECELERATE from Q1's 9% with a ~100bp Middle East drag, and it ACCELERATED to +10.3%, the fastest since Q4 2024, with the U.S., France, the UK and Australia all accelerating. Fourth, they bought it: sales and marketing $875M vs $691M, +26.6%, ten points faster than revenue, and 24.3% of revenue against 22.3%. Fifth, the full 34-cent EPS bridge from $1.03: operations after tax +15.5c, buybacks +5.7c (597M diluted shares vs 626M; 16.0M retired in the half for $2.1B), and the one-time tax item +12.9c - so 38% of the earnings growth and 100% of the beat came from lines that are not the marketplace. Sixth, free cash flow does not charge for the stock: TTM FCF $4,827M (36.7% margin) against TTM stock compensation of $1,707M (13.0% of revenue), so owner earnings are ~$3,120M and at $165.40 you pay 31.6x them. Seventh, part of the first-half cash is float - unearned fees grew $1,085M in six months, 36% of H1 operating cash flow, and it unwinds in the back half. Our owner-earnings DCF (9.5% discount, 2.75% terminal) says $151 - almost exactly the $151.64 close, and about 9% below the after-hours print.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL ACCELERATION, A ONE-OFF BEAT, AND A PRICE THAT JUMPED PAST BOTH) — base-case value ~$151.0 vs ~$165.4 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$151 vs a $165.40 after-hours print (-8.7%). Street: 45 analysts, Buy, $158.67 avg target - the stock is already ABOVE it. We are more CAUTIOUS and DIFFER on the rating.

- Rev $3,608M +16.5% ($8M above their own guide ceiling). GAAP EPS $1.37 vs $1.25 - but $1.24 ex a $77M prior-year tax benefit. Adj EBITDA $1,261M, 35.0% margin. Nights +10.3%, GBV $27.2B +16%.

- TTM FCF $4,827M (36.7%) less $1,707M stock comp = $3,120M owner earnings, 31.6x. Net cash $9,593M. S&M +26.6%, 24.3% of revenue.

What to watch: UP: nights growth holding at or above 10% in Q3 WITHOUT another step up in marketing spend; Airbnb finally disclosing the size of Services and Experiences; or a full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin guide meaningfully above 35.5%. BEAR: nights back to single digits in Q3, sales and marketing above 25% of revenue, or a Q4 guide that leans on the ~3-point FX tailwind to look like growth. Regulatory watch item: the disputed Spanish fine of EUR 65M, with a EUR 70M surety bond posted in May 2026.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Q2 2026 — Q2 adjusted EPS $1.43 vs a $1.30 bar - a 10.0% beat - and up 14.4% YoY. GAAP reported EPS $1.38; the bridge is one $0.05 item ($39M after tax) of North Carolina rate-case settlement charges. Revenue $7,592M, up 1.1%, $67M below the $7,659M estimate - but the shortfall is the gas line (Piedmont Tennessee sale plus a cheaper pass-through commodity). FY2026 adjusted guidance of $6.55-$6.80 REAFFIRMED, and 5-7% growth through 2030 reaffirmed. Stock closed $124.27 vs a $124.28 pre-print close: one cent.

Duke Energy beat consensus by 10% and the stock moved one cent. This episode is about why. First, the basis: the $1.43 everyone quotes is ADJUSTED. GAAP was $1.38, and the only bridge item is $39M after tax ($0.05) of North Carolina rate-case settlement charges - no impairment, no discontinued ops, no non-cash mark. Second, the beat was WEATHER-NEGATIVE. Duke's own variance table shows weather at MINUS $0.02, volume +$0.08, riders +$0.08, rate cases +$0.10 and wholesale +$0.04, against D&A of MINUS $0.09 and interest MINUS $0.04. Most utility Q2 beats come from a hot summer; this one came from granted rates and data-centre load. Third, the revenue 'miss' is not a miss: regulated electric revenue rose 1.9% to $7,103M while regulated gas fell 9.5% to $418M on the Piedmont Tennessee sale and a cheaper pass-through commodity, and fuel is recovered from customers dollar for dollar. Fourth, the guidance arithmetic: H1 adjusted EPS of $3.36 is up 12.0%, but the reaffirmed $6.675 midpoint implies H2 adjusted EPS of ~$3.32 against $3.30 - roughly half a percent of growth in the back half. Fifth, 9.6% earnings-base growth becomes 5-7% EPS growth: rate base goes from ~$84B to ~$120B by 2030 on a $103B capital plan, and depreciation, interest and equity eat the difference. Sixth, the dilution you cannot see - Duke raised $2,765M in the half by selling up to 19.7% of Florida Progress to Brookfield Super-Core, with only $8M of actual common stock issued, while minority-interest income went from $23M to $53M in the quarter. Seventh, the 'cheap' 1.80x price-to-book is $19,010M of goodwill: strip it and you are paying 2.78x tangible book. And the yield is 3.50% against a 4.63% ten-year Treasury.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A BETTER QUARTER THAN THE HEADLINE, AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY KNOWS IT) — base-case value ~$126.0 vs ~$123.9 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$126 vs the $123.90 tape (+1.7%). Street: 32 analysts, Hold, $136.78 avg target. We ALIGN on rating, DIFFER on the number.

- Adj EPS $1.43 vs a $1.30 bar (+10.0%); GAAP $1.38. Rev $7,592M +1.1%. FY26 guide $6.55-$6.80 REAFFIRMED. Weather was MINUS $0.02.

- Rate base ~$84B to ~$120B by 2030 on a $103B plan: 9.6% base growth becomes 5-7% EPS growth. 3.50% yield vs a 4.63% ten-year.

What to watch: UP: a Q3 print that forces a guidance RAISE rather than another reaffirmation; signed electric service agreements moving from 7.8 GW toward the 15.4 GW pipeline; or a ten-year Treasury back below 4%. BEAR: an affordability intervention on large-load tariffs, FFO/debt slipping toward 13%, or a rate order below the 9.8% ROE already settled in North Carolina.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Figma, Inc. (FIG) Q2 2026 — Q2 revenue $370.1M, up 48.2% YoY and above the top of the $348-350M guide. Non-GAAP EPS $0.08 vs a ~$0.04 bar - but GAAP EPS was MINUS $0.21 (a $112.2M net loss) after $147.6M of stock compensation, 39.9% of revenue. Net dollar retention 136%. Full-year revenue guidance RAISED $40M to $1.463-1.467B. Q3 guided to $373-375M, +36% YoY but only +1.1% sequentially. Stock -14.85% to $23.97. The bar was RAISED, not cut - we checked.

Figma beat and raised, and the stock fell 14.85%. This episode is about why. First, the earnings number: the $0.08 everyone quotes is NON-GAAP. GAAP was MINUS $0.21, a $112.2M net loss, because $147.6M of stock compensation - 39.9% of revenue, against 2.9% a year ago - is added back. It is not a non-cash mark; equity losses were only $4.4M. Second, billings grew 33.7%, not 48.2%: deferred revenue FELL $0.9M in the quarter, so billings were $369.2M against $276.2M - and the Q3 guide of +36% sits on the billings line, not the revenue line. Sequential growth ran +10.2%, +10.5%, +9.8%, +11.0% and is guided to +1.1%. Third, the RSU overhang is GROWING: unvested units went 53,240K to 65,484K in six months because Figma granted 28,113K at an average $20.69 while only 9,428K vested, with $1.4B of unrecognised stock compensation still to come over 3.4 years and shares outstanding compounding at 6.95% a year. Fourth, reported free cash flow of $53.2M is BELOW last year's $60.6M on 48% more revenue - and net of the $45.5M of cash tax paid on vesting RSUs it is $7.7M, or MINUS $19.8M for the half. Fifth, cost of revenue grew 116.8% against 48.2% revenue growth and gross margin fell from 88.8% to 83.7%: AI credits are buying revenue with gross margin.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A GOOD QUARTER, AND YOU ARE ALREADY PAYING OUR BULL CASE) — base-case value ~$18.0 vs ~$23.97 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value ~$18 vs the $23.97 tape (-25%). Street: 8 analysts, Hold, $30.17 avg target. We DIFFER.

- Rev $370.1M +48.2%, above the $348-350M guide. Non-GAAP EPS $0.08; GAAP MINUS $0.21. NDR 136%. FY raised $40M to $1.465B.

- 530,572,000 shares at $23.97 = $12.7B cap (not $11.7B). EV $11.0B = 7.5x the $1.465B guide; 145x owner free cash flow.

What to watch: UP: a Q3 print above $385M, which would mean the +1.1% sequential guide was sandbagging; billings growth re-accelerating above reported revenue; or gross margin stabilising near 85%. BEAR: net dollar retention slipping below 130%, another quarter of unvested RSUs growing, or a Q4 under the implied $387.5M.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

SiTime Corporation (SITM) Q2 2026 — Q2 revenue $157.4M vs $146.5M est, up 127% YoY and 38.6% sequentially - above the top of the $140-150M guide. Non-GAAP EPS $2.34 vs a $1.95 bar and a $1.85-$2.00 guide. Non-GAAP gross margin 67.1%, operating margin 34.0%. GAAP net income $18.2M ($0.66 diluted) - the largest in company history. Q3 guided to $285-295M and $3.50-$3.65. Stock +26.58% to $687.50. The bar was NOT cut: SiTime beat the top end of every guided line.

There is nothing wrong with this quarter, so this episode is about the price. Revenue grew 127% organically to $157.4M at a 67.1% non-GAAP gross margin, and SiTime beat the TOP end of its own May guidance on revenue, margin and EPS - the bar was not cut. But three things almost nobody will report. First, $12,545 thousand of interest income over 28,061 thousand diluted shares is 44.7 cents a share - larger than the 39-cent beat - and the $1.9 billion that earned it went out the door on July 1 to pay for the Renesas timing business. Second, Renesas took 3,558,691 SiTime shares as part of the price and filed a Schedule 13D - not a passive 13G - on July 9 disclosing 11.9% and a board seat, while SiTime depends on Renesas transition services for manufacturing and test. Third, first-half stock compensation expense was $61.8M but cash paid for RSU tax withholding was $87.3M - 123% of the $71.0M of operating cash flow. Free cash flow was $44.5M; net of that withholding it is MINUS $42.8M.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, EXCEPTIONAL COMPANY. THE PRICE ALREADY OWNS THE PLAN) — base-case value ~$535.0 vs ~$687.5 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value ~$535 vs the $687.50 tape (-22%). Street: 9 analysts, unanimous Buy, $838 avg target. We DIFFER.

- Rev $157.4M +127% vs $146.5M est. Non-GAAP EPS $2.34 vs $1.95. GM 67.1%. Guide was $140-150M and $1.85-2.00 - beat the top.

- 30,071,036 shares at $687.50 = $20.7B cap (not $18.1B). EV $21.6B = 18.6x the $1.16B run-rate; 48x annualised non-GAAP EPS.

What to watch: UP: a Q3 print above the $295M top end with acquired gross margin holding near 70%, or clear evidence the Renesas clock portfolio is cross-selling into SiTime's 10,000-customer base. BEAR: any slip in the Renesas transition services for manufacturing and test, non-GAAP opex over guidance a second time, or datacenter growth decelerating below 50%.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.